Eli Cash - Contributing Reporter
The System
I took a long look at our current Hall of Fame and recognized a consistent theme; power. 82% of the hitters in the Hall come from the power positions: LF/1B/DH. So I wondered if there was a better way to look at the value of the hitters in our league to determine their Hall worth. Benny 'The Bean Counter' Ballgame had his primer, but his system left much to be desired....more so explained.
The Cash System on the other hand has been used by many, including ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and DraftKings to help provide their internet users with a value ranking system. In it, players earn points for their contribution and effect on the game. A batter may be awarded a point for a run, rbi, or a single; while earning additional points for extra base hits and stolen bases. Or even lose points for being caught stealing or striking out. The larger effect on a pitcher's value is in things he can control, both positive and negative such as how long they last into a game or strikes out; but lose points for giving up a home run or walking too many players. While the bean counters might not appreciate this approach, I've elected to look at a per season average. Longevity has it's place, but just because a player was around for 20 seasons doesn't mean they were useful or anything above average ones to their team. *cough* Dizzy *cough*. To give you an idea on range, the non-pitchers averages 510 points a season. While the starting pitchers average 426 and the average relief pitcher 176 - partially because it's only Sammy Felix right now. We did not include Carl Sosa because he started more games than he pitched in relief.
New Hall of Famers
While he may not have gotten all 32 votes, Chick Munson was the closest thing you'll get to a no-brainer Hall of Famer and now it is official! As it's been mentioned, he owns a few of Cobbfather's All-time records including Complete Games, he's 28 ahead of second place, Wins, and Innings Pitched. He owns a 2.81 lifetime ERA and kept opponents to a .213 average against him. Just last season he pitched over 200 innings for the 19th consecutive season. Munson ranks as the top overall pitcher in Cobbfather history according to the Cash System, coming in with 544 points a season. In comparison Francisco Aramboles is #2 at 515. Followed shortly by James Haselman at 511.
Chick is joined in the Hall this year by Ahmed Ratliff, the power hitting corner outfielder who enters wearing a Columbus Corgis' hat. He's in because he's 2nd all-time in Home Runs, but has also struck out more than any other Hall of Famer; not to mention the lowest batting average too and 3rd least walks. Chicks dig the longball, am I right?! Apparently so do the Hall voters. Ratliff is our lowest ranked Hall of Famer, scoring lower than Jordan Abernathy's 447.
Are These Our Future Hall Members?
These guys should find themselves in the Hall in another season or two. Players will be listed Name (Position - HoF votes last season). For comparison there are now 18 non-pitchers and 20 pitchers in the Hall of Fame.
Armando Merced (SP - 11): Trophy case: 7x All Star, 3x World Series Rings. This is my odds on favorite to become the next Cobbfather Hall of Fame member. He ranks in at 430 points a season, ahead of 12 of the 20 pitcher Hall members (average started was 426). In every category he constantly sits ahead of half the Hall; he is your prototypical Hall of Fame member, though nothing jumps out as being the top player. Nine seasons of 200+ IP and 190+ K. His years in Boston weren't so kind, but that was his 13th-18th season in the league; as he saw an uptick in HR and thus ER; but his IP and Ks mostly remained. But let's cut him some slack, how much can one take of Sweet Caroline anyway? Only twice in his career did he give up more than 100 ERs in a season, didn't give up many free passes and made everyone work to get on base against him. Shall we give him a pass to the Hall next season?
Braeden Abercrombie (SP - 6): Abercrombie trails Merced by 8 points a season over the same amount of seasons played, trailing the average by only by only 4 points. He trails Merced in every category except the ratios, OAV, OBP, SLG, WHIP, and ERA. He also owns a higher K/BB than all but Hall of Famer Don Monahan. His 200+ IP and 190+ K is 10 but taking a closer look he surpassed 225 IP and 200 K, 8 of those 10 times. His trophy case includes: 6 AL All Star, 1 World Series Ring, 1 Cy Young, 2x Gold Glove. He goes hand in hand with Merced and I'll be voting both next season.
Midre Tavarez (SP - 6) Tavarez was as productive as Dizzy Leonard was without being a bean counter. Let's take a quick look at his trophy case, 6x All Star, 2x World Series Rings, and a No Hitter. He wasn't a huge strike out artist, but he carried his own. During his prime, what he did best was limit hits. His signing in extremely hitter friendly Santa Fe to start Season 38. If he had signed with a team in a pitcher friendly stadium, he'd likely already be in the Hall. But then again, he's the one that inked 5/$73.5M deal. His 273 wins have him tied for 7th All Time. Only twice in his career did he win less than 12 games in a season. On the flip, only twice did he lose more than 11 games in a season. It might take a few seasons. Only 8 of 20 Hall pitchers average more points a season than he did, he's right in line with Red Collins who was voted in Season 18. I think the voters come around; or at least hope they do.
Edinson Hernandez (LF - 3): Accomplishments for those that like trophy cases: RotY, All Star x6, MVP, and 2 World Series Rings. Let's play a game, which of the players listed is Hernandez and only one not currently in the Hall of Fame? Numbers are career averages for a season.
He's not your prototypical left fielder, because he didn't swat a bunch of home runs. He also played more games in Right Field. If you guessed Player A then you've done your homework. Edinson Hernandez leads all HoF players average 582 points a season. If you recall the average non-pitcher came in at 509 points a season. Our current top Hall of Famer only averaged 567 points a season and that was power hitting Albert Cruz who was elected in Season 40. Surely Hernandez's number of season (14) is not holding him back as there are quite a few guys who played 12 or 13 currently in the Hall. He is 2nd all time in Doubles, 5th all time in Triples, was on pace to be 4th or 5th all time in Hits before he retired, but he's still top 10. Took more walks than he did strike outs. I'm sure every owner would have loved to have a guy who averaged 30 HR/ 40 SB batting second in their lineup year in and year out. Consistently sat in the 190-200 hits a season range in his prime. The only season he had less than 120 runs was his final season. He is an underrated player and often passed over in Hall voting because he doesn't have the power numbers fans crave these days.
Yeico Miranda (RP - 2): Relief pitchers get overlooked quite often because they don't compare in Innings Pitched, K, Ws, and often times teams aren't using their best relief pitchers as closers these days. For comparison, the only 2 players in the Hall who currently have more than 100 saves are Carl Sosa and Sammy Felix. However, Sosa spent over half his career as a starter. That leaves Sammy Felix, let's run a quick comp.
Miranda has the lowest OAV, ERA, HR/9 amongst all Hall of Famers and those eligible. He provided nearly 75% more value a season than Sammy Felix. But he only did it over the course of 13 seasons. Only time will tell if that's a lucky number for Miranda or not. he also owns the all time single season record for Saves, in 55. Hopefully those 2 voters will speak to his name next voting season!
On The Fence
Haywood Swann (LF - 10): I'm surprised Swann received 10 votes last year and Hernandez only received 3. Don't get me wrong, I think Swann deserves his chance at the Hall as well; but is his 12 seasons enough to get him there? He averaged 560 points a season under the Cash System. That's only 7 points behind our top Hall of Fame member, Cruz mentioned above. Swann played less seasons than Hernandez, but took 35% more walks and struck out 60% less times than Hernandez. Swann misses the top 5 of all time in walks, Cruz is the only Hall member who walked more times. He does have more career points than both Hall of Fame members Jordan Abernathy and Dan Carter, but it's mostly cared by his ability to take a walk. His prime years were amazing, averaging 125 R, 45 HR, 120 RBI, and 25 SBs; but that was only 4 seasons. He didn't top 2000 hits, 400 hr, 1500 runs, or even 120 rbis. Will this Swann be walking into the Hall anytime soon? That's for you to decide.
Al Balentien (RP - 4): Where Yeico Miranda lacks in bean counting stats for lack of seasons played, Balentien makes up for it. 1113 Games with 1108 out of the pen. He closed out 85% of his opportunities and his 3rd all time in Saves. Surprisingly, the man who owns the most saves in Cobbfather history was overlooked for the Hall. Boston's Jace Sale is likely keeping a close eye on Balentien's voting as he closes in on Ontiveros' all-time record; only 16 behind. Given his 47 saves last year, it shouldn't be a problem for Sale. Among relief pitchers eligible or in the Hall, Balentien has the highest HR/9 and the lowest K/BB; that tells me he relied a lot on his defense behind him to get him out of a few jambs. He does rank second at 218 in the Cash System among those same pitchers, but it's a distant second behind Miranda's 281. He had a lengthy career, but I wonder if the majority of owners will get behind him and elect him into the Hall. Only time will tell!
Wandy Guillen (2B - 3): AL Rookie of the Year, 7x All Star, 7x Silver Slugger at 2B, and one World Series Ring. Not entirely sure why he's listed as a 1B on his Hall of Fame ballet, since he spent 1900 games at 2B and only 22 at the end of his 14 year career at 1B. Compared to the two Hall of Fame 2Bs he ranks in the middle according to the Cash System at 492. Ended his career with a .307 batting average. Only three times in his 14 year career did he hit below .300 for the season. In his prime he was good for 115+ runs scored while adding 15 HRs and 40 SBs. Not only could he hit, but he....got on base. Owner of a 2.5 BB to K ratio over the course of his career. Why is he on the fence? The only Hall of Famer with less games played is Jordan Abernathy. While he may have hit above .300, he also only averaged 150 hits a season. And talk about a singles hitter, 75% of his hits landed him no further than a chat with 1B. He's close but just misses it in my book.
Long Shots
Don Sparks (1B - 5): Big drop off here, only averaged 450 points a season. Majority of Hall of Fame bats sit above 475. Saw most of his time at RF and 1B, where he won two Gold Gloves. 2x All Star, and surprisingly 3x MVP. He must have had some hell of a second half in Season 31 to not make the All Star game and still end up MVP of the league. he won 2 World Series Ring, though one was as a back up in Oklahoma City during Season 42, the last of his career. He started the first few seasons strong, but fluttered quickly. Thanks to his 16th season he was able to cross the 2500 hits. Was a big time slugger, crossing the 500 HR mark. Didn't walk more and struck out a lot as he swung for the fences.
Dorssys Tatis (1B - 4): His 422 Cash points a season are nearly 50 points a season off from the minimum. His 4 votes must be chicks digging the long ball, because that's one good thing he did throughout his career. Don't get me wrong that's still impressive given the stadium he played in for 18 years, but he just doesn't muster up enough quality. 85% of his hits were either singles or home runs, though he did walk a lot more than some of the other power hitting eligible players; I'll give him credit for that. He's another bean collector, played a lot of games and got a lot of ABs; maybe Dizzy's PR team could switch their focus to this guy.
Rubby Javier (RF - 3): Javier ranks in there with Tatis with a few less years, at 432 points a season. Though it is interesting that he averaged 100 hits a season that weren't home runs, 138 total to go with 80 runs and 89 RBIs. The number of seasons played definitely helped his overall numbers. Sure he made 6 All Star games, but it must have been the fan voting in Boston. Fun fact, he was caught stealing 70% of the time.
Dizzy Leonard (SP - 3): If Fisher doesn't get in, Leonard shouldn't have a chance. This man's opinion is definitely not effected by Dizzy bullying him in elementary!
Alving Palmeiro (RF - 2): Our first defensive focused player, winning 4 Gold Gloves at 3B and 5 All Star games. He averaged 150 hits, 17 hr, 21 sbs, 80 runs, and 69 rbis; good for 335 points a season. Well behind the 510 average of other HoF members. He's definitely no Zach Charles, our other 3B currently in the Hall. Struck out nearly 300 more times than any other HoF member, including newly voted Ahmed Ratliff who leads all with 1600.
Lorenzo Gonzalez (SP - 1): Lorenzo falls nearly 80 points shy of the average starter in the Hall of Fame. 6x All Star, 4x World Series Rings and threw a no-hitter but barely averaged over 5 1/3 innings an outing. His 1.12 WHIP is near tops of HoF pitchers and ended his career below the 3.00 ERA mark. Wasn't able to top 2500 K or 250 wins. He was reliable, that's for sure; he routinely turned in 165 IP, 145 K while only giving up 50 ER. His .222 OAV ranks up there with the top pitchers in the Hall as well. I feel if he gets his, his bullpen should get a nod as well.
Ryan Fisher (SP - 1): Covered him in the recent The Better Dizzy. Aside from Merced and Abercrombie, he's the best pitcher in the Cash System that is eligible. But is that enough to get him in? His 2.4 K/BB, 3.88 ERA, .249 OAV, .318 OBP says no. This isn't the Hall of I Stayed Healthy and Had a Long Career.
Did They Belong?
In a future article will take a look at current Hall of Fame members and determine if they truly belong. Closer Sammy Felix and DH Jordan Abernathy both come to mind.
The Past Snubs
We'll also take a look at a few players that likely were snubbed from the Hall of Fame. Many of whom own Cobbfather records.
For Statisticians Out There
I've been working with Jill Bames on a new way to monitor and test the validity of a players Hall of Fame chances. Stay tuned for more to come!