Richard Castle - contributing reporter
Continuing with our WS projections, we'll see if we can once again get these projections wrong. This year it's: AL #1 Atlanta vs NL #4 Hartford.
This is Atlanta's first time back since a decisive loss in game 7 of the Season 54 World Series against New Orleans. Rumor has it, that loss still haunts the Expos dreams at night. But hey, maybe they can get over it with a final W against Hartford this year. Hartford themselves are back after dropping to eventual champs last year (S56) in the NLCS. For Hartford this is the Franchise's 2nd ever World Series and they are still in the hunt for their first ring, S55ended with them losing to Houston in the World Series 4-2. ekoontz41 took over the Atlanta franchise way back in S5, after it being ran for two years by current Chicago franchise owner, slashtc. javerrier85 picked up Hartford in S49 from one year owner aenima who just happened to take it over from S56 World Series winner and current New Orleans owner SenorPloppie. The franchise has seen it's fair share of owners, 18 to be exact - that's 6 more than any other franchise has seen and 17 more than the Houston franchise.
Team stats for the season:
- HITTING
- Atlanta - #1 Runs, #3 HR, #3 SB (Thanks Matty Moss), #3 AVG, #6 BB, #1 (least) K
- .271 v LHP - .287 v RHP
- Hartford - #8 Runs, #5 HR, #29 SB, #5 AVG, #4 BB, #6 (least) K
- .281 v LHP - .267 v RHP
- PITCHING
- Atlanta - #4 ERA, #2 WHIP, #4 K, #3 (Fewest) BB, #5 (Fewest) HR, #2 SV, #7 IRS
- Hartford - #8 ERA, #6 WHIP, #3 K, #1 (Fewest) BB, #4 (Fewest) HR, #13 SV, #24 IRS
- FIELDING
- Atlanta - #3 (least) Errors, #9 Plus Plays, #3 (Fewest) Minus Plays, #22 CS%
- Hartford - #7 (least) Errors, #31 Plus Plays, #25 (Fewest)Minus Plays, #6 CS%
- Vegas has odds for Matty Moss only having 1 SB - because it's the playoffs and he doesn't know how to get on base so he can't steal much
Editor note: Considering all the lineup changes it's hard to do a straight position battle comparison, so I kept mostly to RHP + DH lineups for positions...mostly.
C: Kyle Crain (Atl) over Shane Malone/Marvin Johnson (Har) - The platoon has its perks but come on, it's Kyle Freakin' Crain, he's on pace to top Alex Tarraga's position with most MVPs over his career. Yet another Silver Slugger this season and in the ballot for his next MVP with WYW missing the last few 30 or so games will he pull it off? Malone handles the rotation great, but he's the lefty platoon and the Expos have quite a few Righties that could go for them this series. Will Johnson's starts effect the Rising Star rotation? This position battle obviously goes beyond just hitting at the plate.
1B: Alex Perez (Har) over Geronimo Trinidad/Dee Valle (Atl) - Atlanta seems to be riding the hot hand with Trinidad lately, but will it be enough? Similar to the Catcher matchup, defensively it's night and day difference between Perez and Valle. The difference here is, Perez is a near 50 HR hitter so his bat should more than make up anything he costs the team at first.
2B: Matty Moss (Atl) over Warren Cobb (Har) - It's the postseason, which is where Moss struggles but we are still leaning with him over Cobb. If he can piece things together like he does during the regular season then Hartord is in for trouble. Cobb offers the same power as Moss but far less SBs and a lower batting average. Moss is also the slightly better defender. It's just a question of which Moss shows up.
3B: Noe Lecuona (Har) over Vince Saarloos (Atl) - Lecuona provided nearly 3.5 wins over replacement above Saarloos at the plate. In the field like so many other position battles was a no contest for the Rising Star team, afterall Saarloos won a Gold Glove this year. A good 20 shares separates the two players! Noe's 142 OPS+ compared to Saarloos' 102. Hartford needs their 3B to perform more so than the Expos do.
SS: Jimmie Navarro (Atl) neutral wash with Leonel Martinez (Har) - Both were All-Stars and very similar seasons at the plate. In the field, both were below average but Martinez was worse. With the positions above, it's a 2-2 tie; which Shortstop performs better in the World Series might be what turns it for their team winning a ring.
LF: Johnnie Daniels (Atl) over Tom Hines (Har) - We've said it before on this blog, Daniels is a bit underrated by many, simply because he's not considered the best or even second best player on his team. But no doubt he's often in the MVP talks. Not only does he have 40+ HR power but he's got a decent glove to cover LF. Hines brought home the Silver Slugger for the NL in LF but his defense like many Rising Stars is very lackluster. Surely this is one of the worst defensive teams to ever make the World Series.
CF: Adam West (Atl) over D'Arby Barbato/Hank Dougherty (Har) - Batman was an All-Star, hits above .280 with near 25 hr / 25 sb production. The ambiguously happy duo may be better fielders but it's not enough to put them over Mr West. The combined WAR difference is nearly 5 Wins! Surely in a best a seven series that swings at least one game.
RF: Jemile Frandsen (Har) well over Omar Villano (Atl) - This is one position Hartford has the better fielder, and they also have the better bat. Similar average, more power, but less stolen bases. And stolen bases don't get you into the Hall!
DH: Chuck Herndon (Atl) over Player not platooning (Hart) - Herndon offers the best for the Expos, some relief for Crain behind the plate over the course of a 162 game season but also power on top of Crain's bat.
vPitchers: Atlanta barely over Hartford. Atlanta will throw every right hander they can at Hartford's lineup who seemed to struggle with them over the season. Both teams do it well, but the splits lean for the Expos taking this one. It's the Righties of Atlanta versus the majority Lefties of Hartford. There splits over the season are rather close.
The position count is Atlanta's 6 and Hartford's at 3, tying SS, so we'll see if the Rising Stars rotation can do what most teams struggled with over the season but all they have to do it is for 4 games.
Now let's take a quick look at the pitching.
SP: Alcides Johnson (R), J.C. Wall (R), Alan Street (R), Damaso Ethier (R), and Garbez Castillo (L) (Atl) slight edge over Nigel White (R), Avisail Mujica (L), Victor Ortega (L) (Har) - this one was tough, and there's no way Atlanta uses all 5 of those starters, Cy Young candidate Johnson likely starts Game 4 or 5. Johnson, Wall, and Street combined for a 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 41-15 record. Nigel struggled quite a bit this season, only winning 11 games; but he's been fantastic this post-season and that's what counts. Hartford's trio had a 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, going 35-18 over the season; which means they rely A LOT on their bullpen.
RP: Stephen Ramirez (Cl), Joshua Lough (Su), Steve Etherton (Su) (Atl) with an edge over Rafael Ciriaco (Su), Peter Gabriel (Su), Ichiro Suzuki (Su), and Marcos Owen (Su) (Hun) - The Expos three headed bullpen monster had a 2.79 ERA this season, saving 59 of 68 chances. The Rising Stars will look to Owen to have a big series but it will be their SuB take keep them in the game. Those four had a 3.68 ERA, saving only 28/43 chances. The Hartford starters better hit big or this will be a quick series.
Manager: jverrier even ekoontz - These guys are actually pretty similar, both have continued success in the regular season that has translated to the post season in their careers. Both have proven to be quality traders and know how to build a winner. This one is going to come down to the players.
BLOG PREDICTION: Atlanta over Hartford in 5. Has the blog gotten a World Series prediction right so far? Who cares, let's head down to Bourbon Street for another drink!
COMMISH PREDICTION: NL in 6*. We didn't technically ask the Commissioner, but we are tired of asking his opinion because he always picks the NL in 5 or 6 games, so let's just say we interrupted his donut eating and he said Hartford in 6.