Monday, August 28, 2023

S56 Is Cobbfather Competitive?

Richard Castle - contributing reporter


Have you ever wondered just how competitive is Cobbfather? Our blog writer, Mini, has taken a look into other worlds to see just where Cobbfather ranks in competitiveness. Back in the 2018 rankings we ranked #100 out of 141 worlds; ranking as Below Average. What cost us most in 2018 appears to be how long it took to find replacement owners; with only 20 teams taking longer and ranking below us. Even though we were world average in having to fill 20 owners in 4 seasons. For some reason it was just tough to replace those who dropped or moved on. Another area that effected our rating, was having three more than average 100+ loss teams compared to others. We were league average on everything else the previous rankers used to cast judgement on a world. If Thanos snapped his fingers back then, we wouldn't have survived! But alas, here we are. Surviving Thonas' snap, covid, and the currently the dry spell other leagues are having in finding replacement owners and relying on the existing HBD players with the lack of marketing from WIS themselves. 

The new updated rankings that have not been released will similarly be based on the most recent four seasons; ours will include S52-S55. Not released because we are still collecting data, but we've gathered 100 worlds to date, so expect some changes with the final rankings. Cobbfather has made huge strides in some of our "problem" areas but still fall just a hair below average, coming in at 55 of the 108 we've ranked thus far; with another 25 or so to go. The average world has had to fill 14 teams over a course of 4 seasons, while we've thankfully only had to fill 7 teams with new owners. That's fantastic, and speaks to the core of owners we have here. So first of all....thank you all for sticking around! 
And especially to people like bjc30 & rawdk27 (54 seasons), ekoontz41 (52 seasons), topoftheworl (44 seasons), alexng6888 (29 seasons), jbburner (28 seasons), slashtc (23 seasons), klown61455 (22 seasons), and cmchristiansalanharwell (21 seasons) who have all been around for 20+ seasons in Cobbfather. That's 10 of our 32 teams who have been around for more than two decades worth of seasons. You guys have really helped make this league what it is! Plenty of others are quickly approaching the 20 season milestone as well. 

Not once in those four seasons, have we had to find a replacement for 3+ teams; where the average world has to fill 3+ teams at last two of every four seasons. Less teams to fill obviously lends itself to a quick turn around of a new season. Props to the commish (both past and present) for being on top of that and to everyone who has suggested a friend or recruited from their other leagues. Another area our world gets right, is the number of teams playing in the World Series; we've seen 7 different teams the last 4 seasons make the final series of the year (out of 8), compared to the HBD world average of 5.92.  After seeing quite a few worlds be dominated by 2-3 teams, I was pleased to see the variety in ours. We've also been HBD world average on number of different division champs at 16 of 32; despite the recent winnings of Atlanta, Houston, and New Orleans but thanks to the division battles of the NL North, NL East, NL West, AL North, and AL West. 

Now why are we so low if we are doing all these things right? Well, the pieces we aren't getting right is the true competitive side of the league. The average HBD world has 14 teams win 100+ games over a span of 4 seasons, where Cobbfather has seen teams win 100+ games 16 times. It's only 2 more teams in a four year span, but that docks us points. We are below average with teams losing  100+ games, so that's positive and shows the world is no more a tanking world than any other. On the tanking note, at least until this season where we had three teams (New York, Dover, and Austin) lose 110+ games, we had not had a team lose that many in the four seasons that were used to rank the league. That's huge, but expect the next updated rankings for us to fall a bit. That said, on average, worlds have 3.5 teams lose 110+ in 4 seasons....AND WE HAD THAT THIS SEASON ALONE! On the flip, we also saw above average number of teams win 110+ times; recording 7 in those 4 seasons. The HBD average is 4. So that's quite a few teams winning 110+ games. But all said and done, what really matters; at least in my opinion is the teams making the World Series. Just because you win 110+ games doesn't mean the Series is yours. The chance to win keeps the competitiveness alive. 

The last area our world struggles with, plays off the dominance of the regular season by a few teams and the recent trend of challenging for the top pick in the draft. On average, the run differential between the top 3 and the bottom 3 teams in HBD is 1039 runs; Cobbfather sits at 1087 over the last four. Not huge, but that's 48 runs a season. Some of the more competitive leagues sit in the 800-950 range. The last area that shows we struggle with is the number of teams that missed the division title by less than 8 games. This doesn't account for teams that still make the playoffs; just talking about the division races. As you might know, the league lately appears to be on coasting mode by the time the trade deadline comes around; the HBD average is 16.5 teams missing it, we were down at 10. That's not leaving much of the division races; even those mentioned above. Some of the other more competitive leagues sit around 20 teams missing by under 8 games. As for being blown out of the division, those same competitive teams usually sit around 25-30 games for missing the division by more than 25 games; with the HBD average being 33. Over the last four, we had 41 teams miss the divisions by more than 25 games. If you subtract out the division winners, that's 41 of the possible 96 teams missing the division lead by more than 25 games and only 10 being less than 8 games!

Every league has it's ups and downs, as does every team as they go from rebuild to challenging for the title to rebuilding again. But we'll need to be careful for Cobbfather might become known as a min/max league where it's all about the haves and future haves as teams push for their next dynasty. 

But in the end, I think a lot of owners have fun in Cobbfather, even if down seasons. Obviously the goal is to win it all, but you guys are still keeping Cobbfather fun. I know I've enjoyed looking up data and writing the blog, so thanks for letting me. 

Good luck moving forward!

And the S56 award goes to...

Jack Torrance - Contributing Reporter



And the Award goes to...

Continuing off last year's award season. You can generally find the runs, HRs, RBIs, and AVG listed on the website when voting but we'll cover a few of the player's advanced stats; including their Cash points (fantasy points - offense focused), weighted SBs (when relevant, attempted 15 or more), extra base hits, a player's wOBA (weighted on-base average), wRC+ (weighted runs created), and even a player's wRAA (weighed runs above average). All in the effort to see how each individual effected the games they played. Players in bold is our predicted winner.

MVP

We'll start off with the MVP race, listed by Skynet's favorites (ie. listed in order from website)

  • AL - Let's year winner Kyle Crain (C/DH) has come back with a vengeance since missing S54. He follows up last year's performance by winning the AL Triple Crown! This time isn't not Matty Moss or TJ Christenson but Johnnie Daniels (RF) who joins him on the MVP list. While I'm not surprised to see WYW (1B) on the list, it's strange to now see his teammate Weiss given the superb season he had. Cervantes (2B) makes his return to the MVP ballot and rounded out by teammate Vin Pirela (CF) 
    • Kyle Crain (C) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 663
      • xBH - 78
      • wRAA - 76.5
      • wOBA - .472
      • wRC - 192
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: Sounds like a broken record but he's producing those numbers while also managing the pitching  staff behind the plate. And he won the Triple Crown. Even our historians can't tell you last time that happened. Lead the league in RC27 at 11.12; likely top 10-15 single season record.
    • Al Cervantes (2B)
      • Cash points - 594
      • xBH - 79
      • wRAA - 59.2
      • wOBA - .425
      • wRC - 165
      • wSB - -2
    • Wei-Yin Wan (1B)
      • Cash points - 686
      • xBH - 77
      • wRAA - 74.4
      • wOBA - .448
      • wRC - 193
      • wSB - 0
    • Vin Pirela (CF)
      • Cash points - 542
      • xBH - 80
      • wRAA - 41.1
      • wOBA - .398
      • wRC - 147
      • wSB - irrelevant 
    • Johnnie Daniels (RF)
      • Cash points - 604
      • xBH - 71
      • wRAA - 66.6
      • wOBA - .456
      • wRC - 180
      • wSB - irrelevant 
  • NL - Many of the usual suspects, Shea Crowe, Omar Gonzales, Douglas Laxton. Add in Bonk Burnett who had a great season for Hartford in CF and Drew Ducati who played well above his head. 
    • Omar Gonzales (1B) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 803
      • xBH - 95
      • wRAA - 99.9
      • wOBA - .489
      • wRC - 235
      • wSB - 3
        • Case for: O.G. didn't like us calling him the second best player in the NL last year so he put up a monster of a season this year. His 11.32 RC27 ranks top 10-15 all time for a single season. A rounder error puts him under 100 for wRAA and his wRC of 135% better than league average is amazing! Only Laxton got close at 109% better. 
    • Bonk Burnett (CF)
      • Cash points - 610
      • xBH - 78
      • wRAA - 58.1
      • wOBA - .449
      • wRC - 194
      • wSB - 0
    • Drew Ducati (1B)
      • Cash points - 509
      • xBH - 69
      • wRAA - 36.1
      • wOBA - .394
      • wRC - 142
      • wSB - 8
    • Douglas Laxton (RF)
      • Cash points - 582
      • xBH - 75
      • wRAA - 75.8
      • wOBA - .480
      • wRC - 209
      • wSB - -2
    • Shea Crowe (2B)
      • Cash points - 688
      • xBH - 102
      • wRAA - 68
      • wOBA - .439
      • wRC - 173
      • wSB - irrelevant 

Cy Young

Next we have the Cy Young award. This time we'll be looking at a few advanced stats such as ERA+, FIP, Weighted Cash points to neutralize park factors. In the future, if we can figure out why our WAR numbers are so off, we'll include those as well. But for now we'll include K/BB and Quality Starts or Inherited Runners Scored as well. A reminder on ERA+, the average is 100 and anything above 100 indicates the pitcher performed better than average while below performed worse than average. Score of 150 would be 50% better than average. The FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: K, BB, HBP, and HR. 
  • AL - Interesting group here, three starters and two relievers. So you get to pick between an Atlanta and Houston pitcher, which is no surprise given how quickly they separated themselves from the pack. 
    • Mitch Dillard
      • ERA+ - 155
      • FIP - 3.10
      • Cash - 513
      • K/BB - 2.79
      • QS% - 55%
    • JC Wall - Predicted Winner
      • ERA+ - 137
      • FIP - 3.69
      • Cash - 471
      • K/BB - 2.03
      • QS% - 70%
        • Case for: This was a close one with Dillard and Wall, but we felt Wall's 8 additional quality starts helped the team and relied less on the bullpen. That's one reason why you'll notice Wall's 24 wins. But everything else points to Dillard winning.  
    • Whit Benoit
      • ERA+ - 225
      • FIP - 3.11
      • Cash - 320
      • K/BB - 2.88
      • IR% - 15%
    • Jiovanni Poole
      • ERA+ - 143
      • FIP - 3.48
      • Cash - 447
      • K/BB - 2.79
      • QS% - 70%
    • Stephen Ramirez
      • ERA+ - 163
      • FIP - 2.55
      • Cash - 350
      • K/BB - 2.96
      • IR% - 26%
  • NL - Some of the usual suspects here as well. Drew, White, Combs, Bonilla all familiar faces on the Cy Young ballot. But this year Vancouver adds Cy Hawkins. Bonilla while familiar is on the Chicago squad instead of New Orleans this year and proved to be a great signing this off-season. Can Nigel White take home another NL Cy Young? 
    • Nigel White - Predicted Winner
      • ERA+ - 224
      • FIP - 2.79
      • Cash - 482
      • K/BB - 3.49
      • QS% - 66%
        • Case for: This guy has been a cheat code in the NL since coming over from Dover and signing his S53 max contract. This would be his 4th season in the NL and if he wins the award as he should, his 4th NL Cy Young. I bet NL teams hope he signs with an AL team after next season. 
    • Danys Solis
      • ERA+ - 142
      • FIP - 3.63
      • Cash - 410
      • K/BB - 2.49
      • QS% - 47%
    • Avisail Mujica
      • ERA+ - 199
      • FIP - 3.01
      • Cash - 491
      • K/BB - 3.86
      • QS% - 48%
    • Ronnie Andrews
      • ERA+ - 245
      • FIP - 2.78
      • Cash - 385
      • K/BB - 3.09
      • IR% - 50%
    • Alton Drew
      • ERA+ - 142
      • FIP - 3.18
      • Cash - 493
      • K/BB - 2.77
      • QS% - 63%

Cash Points

The top 20 hitters players under the Cash system are:
  1. 803 - Omar Gonzales (Tok)
  2. 688 - Shea Crowe (Chi)
  3. 686 - Wei-Yin Wan (Hun)
  4. 663 - Kyle Crain (Atl)
  5. 662 - Louie Weiss (Hun)
  6. 610 - Bonk Burnett (Har)
  7. 604 - Johnnie Daniels (Atl)
  8. 594 - Al Cervantes (Phi)
  9. 589 - Mickey Barmes (Hel)
  10. 582 - Douglas Laxton (NO)
  11. 581 - Alex Perez (Har)
  12. 579 - Warren Cobb (Har)
  13. 546 - Dilson Ross (Sal)
  14. 542 - Vin Pirela (Phi)
  15. 527 - Damion Ni (Hun)
  16. 524 - Chuck Rupe (Phi)
  17. 509 - Drew Ducati (Col)
  18. 500 - Bernie Mendez (Tok)
  19. 476 - Leonel Martinez (Har)
  20. 475 - Josh Hunt (NO)
And the bottom 10 hitters with at least 300 ABs are. It's generally filled with SSs who often but not always provide solid defense to make up for it. Let's see who we've got this year. Tanking seems a little more higher than normal as the numbers are lower than normal.  
  1. 42.5 - Brooks Jarvis (NY - SS)
    1. -57.8 wRAA
  2. 53 - Lewis Gaetti (NY - SS)
    1. -52.7  wRAA
    2. AL CF Gold Glove
  3. 78.5 - Mark Durrington (Wash - SS)
    1. -42.2 wRAA
  4. 86 - Willie Martin (Buf - 2B/SS)
    1. -29.6 wRAA
  5. 86.5 - Michael Woo (Hou - SS)
    1. -27.3 wRAA
The top 20 pitchers under the cash system are:
  1. 513 - Mitch Dillard (Hou)
  2. 513 - Alan Street (Atl)
  3. 493 - Alton Drew (Chi)
  4. 491 - Avisail Mujica (Hart)
  5. 482 - Nigel White (Hart)
  6. 478 - Tony Lim (CS)
  7. 471 - J.C. Wall (Atl)
  8. 464 - Ed Wood (OKC)
  9. 450 - Ray Aaron (Chi)
  10. 447 - Jiovanni Poole (SLC)
  11. 446 - Victor Ortega (Hart)
  12. 434 - Midre Benavente (Col)
  13. 425 - Roger Simon (Hun)
  14. 422 - Harold Foltynewicz (Sal)
  15. 414 - Eli Moreno (Buf)
  16. 411 - Frank Kim (Min)
  17. 410 - Carmen Arnold (Hou)
  18. 410 - Danys Solis (NO)
  19. 407 - Rico Bonilla (Chi)
  20. 406 - Damaso Ethier (Atl)

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

S56 - Mysterious Case of Dizzy Leonard

Eli Cash - contributing reporter

Since the topic has come up again, did Dizzy Leonard get the shaft by voters and does he belong in the Hall? While it's not apples to apples comparing MLB players to Cobbfather players, the game was still designed with the MLB in mind; at least the old MLB - thanks devs for all the game updates. 

With discussions of Jorge Johnson and Dizzy Leonard, one has to ask if there is a single stat that once you pass its threshold guarantees you a spot in the Hall of Fame? Is it 300 Wins, 3000 K or Hits, 600 HRs? Obviously no amount of Saves will assure you a spot in the Hall judging by recent voting. What about 1500 Rs / RBIs? Or maybe it's All-Star appearances, MVPs or even Cy Youngs. That is up to the voting community to decide what truly makes a Cobbfather Hall of Famer. 

Sorted by Strikeouts.

No doubt quite a few of those players are Hall of Famers, but are all them? All but one MLB player (A, B, G, J, K, & M) is a Hall of Famer. Player K is not, we'll tell you more about him later. Of the Cobbfather players listed only one is a Hall of Famer, player C - Gregor Lopez who was recently inducted.

If it's Game 7 of the World Series, which guy do you want on the mound FOR you? Who do you want pitching AGAINST you?

Hall of Fame MLB Players
Player A - Nolan Ryan
Player B - Steve Carlton
Player G - Phil Niekro
Player J - Bob Feller
Player M - Early Wynn

Before we reveal who Player K is, let's identify which player is Dizzy Leonard. He is Player F, the one tied for most Losses, has the highest ERA & WHIP, given up the most HRs and walked the most batters even though he barely has more innings than a few other names (Players C & D). Let's ignore C because we know that was Lopez and he's clearly head and shoulders ahead of the other Cobbfather players on the list. Player D was an even better strikeout pitcher, but he was passed over for the Hall as well, he is Ryan Fisher. He received a single vote back in S46 voting and hasn't been heard from since. Player E wasn't nearly as close in innings pitched but struck out a few more batters with better ratios and he's not getting much love in his current Hall voting. He's none other than S56 6 vote getter, Juan Galvis. The other three players who had less K than Leonard but have been passed up or currently being passed on for the Hall are H - Sherman Berkman. I - Braeden Abercrombie. L - Randall Washington. 

I think the debate is not just about that single player but the precedence set by the voting of others players. Unfortunately for Dizzy's time on the HoF ballot it was also about how many other good names were on the ballot that deserved votes. With only so many votes per owner, sometimes you have to make the tough decision on who gets in and who doesn't. 

But back to the question, is there an accomplishment like 3000 K that should assure someone a spot in the Hall? If Player K was more of a K artist with the same ratios would you think he deserves a spot? Likely only a Mets fan would say yes, but there's no bad answer. Some people value one stat over another. Player K is Bartolo Colon. 

Let the debate continue!


Editor note - the blog is biased towards no players or owners. We look at players as individuals and contribution to the league, regardless of the team(s) they played for. Vic Crowe was before the time of the current editor. Our editor has even gone on record saying he would have voted for Crowe if he was an owner at that time. Sure he ha a low Monitor score but his Test Score is legit and a Top 5 All-time 2B. Could easily argue if he's top 2 or 3. Not everything is by the stat. 

Monday, August 21, 2023

S56 - Mysterious Case of Jorge Johnson

Eli Cash - contributing reporter


As we near the end of Jorge Johnson's playing days and the debate that will follow as he nears 3,000 hits. Let's take a look back at his career and what might be in store for him next season where at the prime ole age of 39 he will be crossing his fingers that topoftheworl exercises the mutual option for $7.5M. That's a lot to pay for a guy whose scouting OAV is projected to be in the 40s; lower than some top prospects coming out of high school. With the loyalty to his players, I'd imagine topoftheworl declines the option and signs Jorgey to a league minimum contract in hopes he can reach the milestone that in his mind guarantees his entrance into the hall. 

But before we get into his career, let's take a quick look at a few other retired players. First are two players who just missed the 3k hit mark in Francisco Baez and Midre Mantalban. Baez feel just 5 hits shorts and missed his chance at the Hall. Mantalban missed it by 70 hits and only received 5 votes for his Hall bid this past off-season. The great Alex Tarraga who is likely also in his last season, crossed over the 3k hit this season. Must be a proud moment for the future first ballot Hall of Famer given his other accolades. Of the players in the Hall at or near the 3k hit total, Johnson has the least amount of runs, doubles, triples, batting average, ops, and thanks to Yoenis Portillo, the second least HR and RBI total. He's middle of that pack in stolen bases. So needless to say he doesn't quite match up to the other Hall of Famers at the 3k Hit much. But so what you say, he still nabbed 3,000 hits. Something that Stan Ross was barely able to do. And you'd be absolutely correct, that's a huge accomplishment for a player, especially in this day and age where players are held back to stretch their prime years to fall within arbitration or their first extension. It's rare to see a guy last 18 seasons anymore. That's one thing you can count on top for, loyalty to his players and getting the most out of them. 

In Johnson's prime years he was a .300+ hitter that offered 20ish HRs and low teens SBs; making NINE All-Star games, two Gold Gloves - one in RF the other at 1B, and was part of the S48 From My Loins championship team! S54 was the first time we started to see a little slip in his game, so many wondered if he'd get to 3k. He finished S54 with 2,723 hits after hitting .289 that season. His S55 left a lot to be desired but his age was catching up to him, hitting only .247 with only 124 hits and his lowest career OPS at .648. That bumped him to 2,847 hits; with one more guaranteed year on his contract he needed just 153 to reach the milestone. 

Expectations were low entering S56, considering the drops in ratings he saw across the board. Ending S54 JJ was 73, 48, 56/81, 83 and enter S56 we saw him at 68, 37, 51/74, 77; with him dipping down to 63, 37, 46/65, 71 ending the season. If you know anything about Cobbfather you have to agree, how does a guy with such low ratings end up hitting .286 this season with a few games to play. It's gotta be his drive, the heart! This must be where experience shines. Props to top for getting every last squeeze of juice out of JJ this season. 

If he does come back next seasons, we could easily see his ratings start the season somewhere around 58, 25, 58/60, 65. It might take him a full season of at-bats, but top can use JJ's leadership skills in the club house for a club entering their rebuild years. What's a few extra L's for a rebuilding club in hopes a Colorado Springs fan favorite hits the 3k mark!

In closing, I look forward to reviewing him in the HoF coverage in the short years to come. 

Friday, August 18, 2023

S56 On The Books!

Jessica Fletcher - contributing reporter

The annual 7yankee7 recruitment post reminds me that it's time to look at future budgets. Here is who has the most committed in future seasons. List in order of most future money committed. In the 'Future salary is future owner problems' is still the Chicago Gunslingers with just over $265M; down from last year. Not far behind him is Tokyo and New Orleans. Least on the books Augusta Alcoholics with $0M next four seasons. Their commitment appears to be to beer over players! Mexico City came in at just $1.2M for next year only. Tacoma comes in as the third team with no money committed beyond S57. 14 teams have 0 commitments to S60. The average commitment in the league is $48M next year, down to $30 then $15, then $8. 



I expect a bit of change as extensions are signed after the regular season. 


Thursday, August 10, 2023

S56 Power Rankings Update

Richard Castle - contributing reporter


Let's face it, the only people who care about these rankings are the ones at the top. The bottom dwellers are more than happy to see their names at the bottom or even wish they were lower. Skynet sees you New York! Here we are 3/4 of the way through the season with the playoff brackets being set. 



In the AL - Atlanta still owns a sizeable lead, though Helena has cooled off a bit. Division leads are in the two series range, 5-7 games. Wildcard in the AL is a bit interesting, with Boston's pitching struggling this year, they sit 3 games behind Salt Lake City. Philly has fallen further back with potential of either an all in year next season or the start of a rebuild. Huntington is looking like a strong WC1 team and likely just misses the division.  

In the NL - After a very tough run, Montreal has fallown below .500 and no longer considered a top 3 NL team. On the opposing end, New Orleans has finally hit stride and started to win some more, and looking to hold on to the #2 seed and first round bye. Vancouver is up and down, just like my opinion on Canadians. Chicago could easily win the East or West but are stuck behind a strong Hartford squad who is cruising and hoping for another World Series appearance.   

If we look at how each team has expected to win based off recent play, here is what we'd see. Champs and Wildcard are listed based on expected win percentages. Current playoff teams are highlighted in bold.  
  1. .753 - Atlanta Expos (AL E Champ)
  2. .740 - Hartford Rising Stars (NL N Champ)
  3. .651 - Houston Space Cowboys (AL S Champ)
  4. .641 - Huntington Tropics (Wildcard 1)
  5. .665 - New Orleans Hurricane Dodgers (NL S Champ)
  6. .624 - Chicago Gunslingers (NL Wildcard 1)
  7. .602 - Oklahoma City Barons (NL W Champ)
  8. .602 - Helena Hot Dogs (AL-W Champ)
  9. .573 - Minnesota Nort Stars (AL N Champ)
  10. .559 - Salt Lake City Punk! (AL Wildcard 2)
  11. .529 - Vancouver Canucks (NL Wildcard 2)
  12. .522 - Philadelphia Harpers
  13. .521 - Boston Baseball Team
  14. .515 - Tokyo Nomo 
  15. .515 - Anaheim Diablos
  16. .495 - Salem Bourbon Makers
  17. .473 - Charleston Offspring
  18. .470 - Buffalo Bisons
  19. .464 - Columbus Corgis (NL E Champ)
  20. .450 - Jacksonville Lizard Kings
  21. .445 - Pittsburgh Yinzers 
  22. .432 - Milwaukee Metronomes
  23. .430 - Santa Fe Surf Riders VIII
  24. .415 - Washington DC Nationals
  25. .405 - Mexico City Staring Frogs
  26. .403 - Augusta Alcoholics
  27. .400 - Colorado Springs From My Loins
  28. .400 - Montreal Fighting Poutine Plate
  29. .333 - Austin Son's of Odin
  30. .328 - Tacoma Aroma
  31. .325 - Dover Hazmats
  32. .308 - New York Empire
The race for the top 3 picks in next season's draft
  1. Dover Hazmats & New York Empire - 38-81 - on pace for a 110 L season
  2. Tacoma Aroma - 41-78 (3 games back)
  3. Austin Son's of Odin - 42-77 (4 games back)
  4. Pittsburgh Yinzers, Mexico City Staring Frongs & Colorado Springs From My Loins - 49-70 (11 games back)
Do we say good luck or bad luck to those team?

Wednesday, August 9, 2023

S56 Draft Recap

Gabrielle  O. Alvarez-Tillman - Contributing Reporter.



Yet another draft season in Cobbfather, so let's round up the Rule 4 draft. We won't mention any names, but a certain team hired the scouts out from under us, so temper expectations on projections a bit. Let's dig into it! We'll do the same as last season and add in current ML comps to most players - maybe not all. As a reminder comps are to match their projections as closely as possible and not what they may end up like. 

1. Tacoma - Steve Mailman (SP) - I'm seeing a trend. Tacoma with #1 pick in even years. Time to hit Vegas in S58! Let's take a look at the player paired with last year's Scott Stokes (SP) and their other #1 pick Domingo Rodriguez (SP). It's going to be a solid rotation if all three of those guys make and in a pitcher friendly stadium like Tacoma, it should be interesting to see what these guys do. Now to get some bats to put up some runs. With Steve's velocity, the mailman sure isn't ringing twice. He's a slightly better Damaso Ethier but with a lot lower first pitch quality and doubled third pitch to make up for it. Definitely a front line starter without a doubt. 

2.  Mexico City - Marc Olson (SS) - Similar to Tacoma they've taken two starting pitchers the last two years within the top 5 picks but this year shift to the infield. But can the plus arm strength make up for the average range, accuracy and below average glove? I'd set Charlie Hinojosa as his floor. A player who can man Short and put up a good average with high teens to mid-20s HR power and probably about the same depending on his manager letting him run or not. His red flag is his health, one injury could kill him defensively or quickly turn him into your prototypical Rule 5 SS. Solid makeup for a kid who is 20 yrs old. 

3. Augusta - Logan Galloway (RP) - This team missed out on signing their S54 pick, but made up for it by selecting two pitchers last season. It's rare to see a relief pitcher this early in the draft so that should tell you something about Galloway. He's going to be a beast! Imagine prime Radhames Machado, he could be better than that. His down side is that stamina won't last more than an inning, but I could still see him easily pitching 120-135 innings a season at the prime setup man. If you want an ace to your bullpen for the playoffs, Galloway is your man and I'm not even sure he's Scottish. He'll have the best forkball in all of Cobbfather. Might even have a top 5 curveball in all of Cobbfather too. If that doesn't get your knees shaky, then I don't know what will. 

4. Dover - Bernie Paez (2B) - Great health, fantastic speed and posed to be able to lay down a bunt wherever he wants it to go. Watch out KBO Bunt Derby! He shouldn't strike out much, but neither will he impress the chicks who vote on the Hall as his career high in HRs projects to be 10. Think S54 Al Rosario who will hit about .260. Given his health and durability he should see every bit of all 162 games, but we fill that will also drive up his arbitration years given the production of his bat. Given Dover isn't really a team that likes to run, he's probably best traded to a team like OKC who loves to run and could use 18 yr old manning second in their future years. 

5. Washington DC - Gordon Eyre (SS) - We covered the struggle of the previous owner to develop talent, this year's pick sure hopes the new owner will be different. Given the limitations in range and slight below average glove, we'd suspect Eyre will move off short and likely to the hot corner where his power will be better suited. Think Boone Maxwell with his splits reversed and slightly more speed. Similar to #2 pick Olson, a slight injury concern but with the right medical staff he should be fine. 

6. Austin - Viosergy Barrett (SS) - Superb range and arm strength with above average accuracy should be fun to watch at Short. Third Shortstop with an injury concern but with Barrett it's even more pressing given his low contact and splits abilities with his power driving so much of his value at the plate. He's basically a stronger slower Ronald Wilson; he'll be a streaky hitter but I've seen far worse players starting at Short. 

7. Tokyo - Dave Cisco (P) - I like big budgets and I cannot lie. With $122M committed to payroll, one has to wonder what their scouting budget looks like. Maybe the owner's dad did the scouting for the team this year. You gotta like what Pops found at pick 7, a Danys Solis with better control, a hair better splits, but much less velocity and doesn't know how to keep the ball anywhere near the ground. Solis by the way has a career 55-14 mark; that's nearly a .800 winning percentage as he's bounced between the bullpen and rotation down in New Orleans. 

8. Montreal - Dale Baker (2B) - This dude can flat out run, and might even challenge Matty Moss for the All-Time stone base record, IF he can get on base. At the plate he's an Ernest Collins or Yovani Bonilla type of bat. Over the last two seasons those guys have hit .247, .248, .265, .280; with anywhere from 8-27 HR. Let's hope Baker ends up more S54 Bonilla. Has a good chance to stick at 2B for the future. Now if only Montreal could decide if they are rebuilding or going for it, that changes more times than the owner changes his underwear!

9. New York - Charles Strickland (3B) - This is probably the lowest pick you see NY at in the next 5-6 seasons, get ready for a strong rebuild! Strickland seems willing to sign for slot but NY must be saving for that IFA spending over the ratings they see of this high schooler. Not sure if they end up getting a Type D pick next season at #10. They'd be that much closer to shifting money over to scouting and might be more comfortable with their selection. Not to mean they are looking at a possible #1 or 2 pick next year as well. Strickland is a high power, high health type of player who will shift off Short in the majors. Hits Lefties and Righties decently well....when he can finally make contact. 

10. Santa Fe - Braden Bassitt (LF) - Last year's pick appears to be progressing decently enough, but like Tokyo at the #7, this is a high budget team who might not have the scouting budget and resources to correctly identify who exactly their pick is. Defensively Bassitt is going to struggle anywhere outside of first base. Hitting wise he looks like a Mat Patel with a better eye and a metric s#%@ ton more speed. Sadly that speed will go to waste in terms of stolen bases, but I'd imagine in that hitter's park of Santa Fe he probably legs out a few extra hits getting down the base path quicker. 

11. Anaheim - Matt Roberts (SP) - A lot to like about Roberts especially this late in the draft. With comp names like Nigel White, Riger Simon, Louis Conley, Victor Ortega, Alan Street, Joaquin Owe, and Zephyr Gross you know he's going to have a pretty decent career. If you forced me to compare with just one player I'd probably lean Nigel White with the biggest difference being able to keep the ball low. This could be the steal of the draft consider White has won the last 3 NL Cy Young awards. While White is having his "worst" season for the Rising Stars he's still 18-2 through 24 starts with a 1.04 WHIP and 2.50 ERA. 

12. Helena - Yunel Valenzuela (RP) - Is there a vowel in the alphabet this guy doesn't like? YV might challenge Galloway who was drafted #3 as the best relief pitcher in the draft. He also comps to Radhames Machado but also new Expo, Joshua Lough. YV stands to have better pitches than both while keeping the ball almost immediately on the ground. Imagine having the sharpest Shortstop with this guy on the mound. His stamina is low, but he gets himself ready for the next day quickly. Very solid pick here. At 21 yrs old, and playing for the AL West division leading Helena squad, you might actually see him called up pretty quick compared to most players. Let's make the most of that playoff window!

13. Columbus - Junior Morris (LF) - What a jump, this team went from the #1 pick last year to errr....lucky #13. That's a good sign right? Being the third big budget team, this one having a $127M player payroll, I'd expect some talent to fall to later picks this season. No real good comps for the player for Mr Jr Ms. But given his struggle against Lefties, he'd likely split At-bats with another player. 

14. Buffalo - Jason McCallum (SP) - McCallum will be an interesting one to watch, especially for this Bisons team. He's likely an Edgardo Boscan type pitcher; not the name everyone thinks up but gets the job done. Minus this year for Boscan but maybe he's just not a Boston type of pitcher. 

15. Montreal (Type D) - Stefen Diaz (3B) - With their second pick in the top 14, the only team in Canada that really matters selects, Stefen 'Not Curry' Diaz. Talk about another comp for an underrated player, I'd see Diaz as a James Kondou type with a little less speed and slightly worse at making contact. Given the quality I've seen at a #15 pick, this the team should be excited about this one. 

16. Jacksonville - Eury Gomez (CF) - I hate giving two player comps but Gomez falls pretty close to a perfect mix of Rafael Rodriguez and Steve Lalli. If he can stick at CF I'd take the low teens HR with 40-50 SBs on the season. Likely a .260ish type hitter. Bat him in the 9th hole and let him lead get on base ahead of your true leadoff guy and just sit back and watch the double steals happen! 

Recap: 6 pitchers, 1 second baseman, 3 shortstops, 3 center fielders, a left fielder, and 2 third basemen. Very pitcher focused this season.  Most expensive signing: #7 overall to Tokyo - Dave Cisco - $5.8M, well above slot. Let's see if he ends up worth it in a few years. 

Let's go prospects, it's nearly your time to shine!!