Thursday, July 10, 2014

Season 24 Preseason Power Rankings

Season 24 is about to get under way, so it's time to check in with the preseason power rankings!  We had some excellent preseason insights from topoftheworl as well, that were quality additions to the blog.  Let's see how they compare!   At the top of the preseason rankings, we have the 3-time defending champion Dover.  The roster is a year older, but the same was said last season, and they came through.  Gotta show respect for the champs.  Coming in at #2 is Atlanta, probably the most talented team in Cobbfather on paper.  Another impressive season seems extremely likely.  #3 is Pawtucket, who emerged last season as a top AL team.  With the top offensive threat in the world and some quality Free Agent signings, it's not hard to see why.  #4 is Houston, who struck it big in Free Agency once again and looks to be loaded.  An upcoming San Juan team rounds out the top 5, as rawdk looks to have his team ready to contend again.  Here are the complete rankings, good luck to all in your openers!



Season 23

Team  W L    Comments
1 Dover 107 55 Getting older, but can 3peat champs be anywhere else?
2 Atlanta  108 54 Extremely talented roster that could easily win it all
3 Pawtucket 92 70 Coming off a great season, and active in Free Agency 
4 Houston 87 75 Loaded up in FA once again, so should be solid
5 San Juan 90 72 They've got a lot of youth, so should improve again
6 Charlotte  98 64 Great last season, but the AL is looking very tough
7 Boston  96 66 Aging roster and lost Almanzar, but still pretty good
8 Arizona 88 74 Looked good last season, and should be in it again 
9 Tampa Bay  89 73 Haselman is getting older, but still a very good team here
10 Los Angeles 88 74 Always in the mix with tremendous pitching staff
11 Florida 86 76 Should build on last season, Leiter was a nice add
12 Pittsburgh  86 76 Consisitently solid and looking to get back in the fold
13 Louisville 87 75 Nice offense, if the pitching improves, will be strong 
14 Buffalo  85 77 Loss of Hernandez hurts, but have very good pitching 
15 Salt Lake City 81 81 Looking to break out of the pack this season
16 Cincinnati 78 84 Added a couple of pieces, so they could improve
17 St. Louis 81 81 Very strong pitching is a plus, we'll see about the offense
18 Las Vegas 71 91 Ontiveros was a nice add, so improvement is possible
19 Colorado Springs 74 88 Management is confident in improvement this season
20 Durham  69 93 It's a tough division, but they did improve their pitching
21 Austin  82 80 A lot of roster movement, so we'll see how it works out
22 Ottawa 83 79 Lost some pieces, but they still a solid pitching staff
23 Trenton 77 85 Middle of the pack last season, so we'll see about them
24 Jacksonville 74 88 New ownership is still getting acquainted with the team
25 New York  78 84 Pitching was an issue last season, we'll see if it improves
26 Syracuse  77 85 Pretty average across the board, can they take next step?
27 Texas 80 82 With star slugger Riley, so could improve this season
28 San Francisco 64 98 Almanzar provides needed pitching help, good offense too
29 Seattle  69 93 Took steps forward, can they continue upward trend?
30 Albuquerque 58 104 Second year owner is still making team their own 
31 Philadelphia 55 107 A lot of youth, can they take a step forward this season?
32 Salem 55 107 Not sure about this team, but we think they'll be better

Monday, July 7, 2014

topoftheworl's Top 25 Pitchers - NL

The top 25 pitchers in the NL:


Name Team Raw Score
1 Douglas Banks Buffalo 3600.8
2 Norman LaPorta Houston 3487.5
3 Manuel Estrada Houston 3391.3
4 Vic Vizcaino Arizona 3380.0
5 Will Ogden Dover 3361.0
6 Antonio Ishida Buffalo 3337.0
7 Marvin Walsh Pittsburgh 3315.0
8 Davey Torrealba Texas 3309.0
9 Jim Goulet Texas 3294.5
10 Dioner Ontiveros Las Vegas 3270.0
11 Don Monahan Dover 3259.3
12 Destin Beirne Ottawa 3258.3
13 Dennis Saito Syracuse 3247.3
14 Artie Stone Arizona 3221.0
15 Terry Kramer Los Angeles 3203.8
16 Homer Butler Los Angeles 3198.3
17 Brent Voyles Arizona 3192.5
18 Sid Townsend Buffalo 3177.5
19 Bill Hermanson Philadelphia 3175.0
20 Chief King Pittsburgh 3168.0
21 Red Collins Florida 3125.0
22 Billy Cooper Houston 3116.0
23 Fausto De La Rosa Ottawa 3115.0
24 Houston Austin Los Angeles 3109.0
25 Clarence Poole Houston 3104.8

topoftheworl's Top 25 Hitters - NL

Now its the NL's turn.  First the top 25 hitters:




Projected 

Name Team RC
1 Willie Cerda Jacksonville 127.4
2 Pascual Hernandez Houston 126.6
3 Howard Greer Pittsburgh 122.3
4 Garrett Patrick Dover 121.0
5 Jerrod Griffiths Houston 119.8
6 Hootie Cookson Dover 119.8
7 Greg Riley Texas 119.7
8 Vic Crowe Ottawa 119.6
9 Abraham Tannehill Syracuse 118.2
10 Albert Pineda Dover 116.3
11 Albert Pineda Buffalo 115.2
12 Will Maxwell Houston 112.8
13 Dustan Jackson Houston 112.3
14 Benito Acosta Buffalo 111.4
15 Pepe Guillen Ottawa 111.2
16 Carlos Trevino Jacksonville 110.9
17 Aurelio Lima Syracuse 110.8
18 Tony Hujimoto Arizona 109.6
19 Luis Duran Salt Lake City 108.0
20 Stan Dickens Dover 107.9
21 Alex Mercedes Salt Lake City 106.1
22 Benny Franco Ottawa 106.0
23 Gary Harvey Florida 105.8
24 Victor Guzman Arizona 105.4
25 Vic Castro Arizona 104.3

topoftheworl's Top 25 Pitchers - AL

Top 25 AL pitchers.  Stamina was not given any weight in this assessment so RP's are right in there with SP's.  The "raw score" is just a ranking tool and does not equate to anything specific.


Name Team Raw Score
1 Tony Mota St. Louis 3479.25
2 Jayson Klesko Boston 3419
3 Trevor McQuillan Salem 3394.5
4 Aneury Tejeda Atlanta 3345.75
5 Thomas Hutchinson Atlanta 3344
6 Victor Almanzar San Francisco 3339
7 Ron Jefferson Boston 3307.25
8 Allen Cox Louisville 3284
9 Miguel Colon Trenton 3260
10 Alex Satou Pawtucket 3258.25
11 Clinton McNeil Durham 3243.5
12 Yeico Oliva Boston 3228.5
13 Julio Sanchez Tampa Bay 3228.25
14 Ron Gross Pawtucket 3217.75
15 Alberto Beltre Pawtucket 3213.25
16 Calvin Wanatabe Tampa Bay 3206.25
17 Gus Masaoka Atlanta 3205
18 James Haselman Tampa Bay 3177.5
19 Walt White Charlotte 3164.25
20 Antone O'Neill St. Louis 3164
21 Edgard Fernandez Albuquerque 3161
22 Lloyd Chiasson San Juan 3151.5
23 Kevin Kingland New York 3149
24 Jhoulys Olmedo Salem 3143
25 Hiram Ogawa St. Louis 3140.5

topoftheworl's Top 25 Hitters - AL

Here are the top 25 hitters in the AL.  Pure bats, not points for defense.  The second column is my estimate of their predicted runs created for the year.  Home ballpark has not been figured in.

-----This just in:  Albert Cruz is a BEAST!-----




Projected

Name Team RC
1 Albert Cruz Pawtucket   134.7  
2 Timothy Steinbach Atlanta 121.4
3 Enrique Garces Atlanta 120.8
4 Mendy Kondou Boston 120.3
5 Morgan Cerda Atlanta 120
6 Eugene Brantley Tampa Bay 117.5
7 Kendry Lunar Boston 114.4
8 Vic Park Atlanta 113.6
9 Crash Meacham Atlanta 113.2
10 Benjamin Delcarmen Cincinnati 111.8
11 Vladimir Troncoso San Juan 111.6
12 Neifi Gandarillas Louisville 111.5
13 Junior Roberts Charlotte 111
14 Alex Manto Atlanta 109.4
15 Joshua Hendrick San Juan 109.2
16 Theo Waters Pawtucket 108.3
17 Stubby Shaw Boston 107.7
18 Takumi Tanaka Salem 106.3
19 Joey Ryan Louisville 105.8
20 Joe Foster San Juan 104.6
21 Vern Connelly Louisville 103.6
22 Vinny Dickinson Atlanta 103.1
23 James Dillard Charlotte 101.6
24 Yuniesky Nieves San Juan 101.3
25 Brutus Henry    St. Louis    101.1

topoftheworl's Future Rankings

Future rankings

Since I am in the middle of a rebuild I decided to see how I am coming along.  I took every player at every level and scored all of them 25 or under.  This is a flawed system, of course, because my advanced scouting sucks.  However, in theory my advanced scouting should be inaccurate in a way that does not bias any one player or team.  I broke up prospects into 5 tiers.  Tire one are the truly elite and tier 5 probably should never make the majors.  Teams got the most points for a Tier 1 players and a tiny amount for a tier 4 prospect (with nothing for tier 5).  I did not make a distinction between ML and minors since we all run our teams differently.  The total points don't mean anything except giving me a final way to rank teams.

Rank Team Total Points
1 San Francisco 18
1 Austin 18
1 Buffalo 18
4 Colorado Springs 17.5
4 New York 17.5
6 Salt Lake City 17
7 San Juan 16.5
8 Florida 14.5
9 Jacksonville 12
9 Las Vegas 12
11 Atlanta 11
12 Salem 10.5
12 Cincinnati 10.5
12 Seattle 10.5
15 Trenton 10
16 Arizona 9.5
17 Charlotte 9
18 Albuquerque 8
18 Durham 8
20 Syracuse 7.5
21 Texas 6.5
22 Ottawa 6
22 Philadelphia 6
24 Houston 5.5
24 St. Louis 5.5
26 Boston 3.5
26 Los Angeles 3.5
28 Louisville 3
28 Pawtucket 3
28 Tampa Bay 3
31 Pittsburgh 2
32 Dover 1.5

Thoughts: No tears for Dover since they have won back-to-back. SF and Buffalo are projected to make the playoffs. Atlanta is 11th and the 2nd best team overall in my projections.

topoftheworl's Season 24 Preview

I had a little extra time this last week (Barrow, AK, my home, shuts down for a local holiday on the 2nd so we all had a 5 day weekend) and the wife and kids are out of town.  Rather than do something useful I broke out an old spreadsheet I had and put Cobbfather's 32 teams into it.  I used to do the blog over in Long Haul and I used it then.  I asked A-log if I could share my results and the fruit of my efforts is below.  I'll start by giving the caveat that it is really hard to quantify defense into a formula and so while I try, its probably undervalued in my final product.

Projected AL records:

AL North W GB
Pawtucket
90 72 -
St. Louis 86 76 4
Cincinnati
79 83 11
New York 69 93 22




AL East
W GB
Atlanta 111 51 -
Boston
100 62 11
Trenton
81 81 30
Durham 71 91 39




AL South
W GB
San Juan 92 70 -
Charlotte
85 77 7
Louisville 76 86 16
Tampa Bay 75 87 17




AL West
W GB
San Francisco
76 86 -
Colorado Springs
73 89 3
Albuquerque 66 96 9
Salem 65 97 10

My thoughts:  If this holds I will owe ploppie a season since I promised 76 wins.  I ran Tampa Bay twice because I didn't believe how poorly they did.   San Francisco is a team to watch.  Not only are they the class of the West now, but they are only getting better (more on that later).  Atlanta has the best offense and the 2nd best pitching.  Boston has the best pitching and the 2nd best hitting.  One of them will not win their division ;)  Trenton projects to have a run differential of 0.  I've never had that happen before.

Projected NL records:

NL North
W
GB
Ottawa
87 75 -
Pittsburgh
83 79 4
Syracuse
78 84 8
Seattle
72 90 15




NL East
W
GB
Dover
95 67 -
Buffalo
86 76 9
Florida
77 85 18
Philadelphia
71 91 24



NL South
W GB
Houston
107 55 -
Jacksonville
81 81 26
Austin
73 89 34
Texas
60 102 47


NL West
W GB
Arizona
91 71 -
Los Angeles
80 82 11
Salt Lake City
79 83 12
Las Vegas
78 84 13

My thoughts:  Houston is really, really good.  Their pitching staff is projected to be 20 runs better than LA's and 60 runs better than anyone else.  In addition they have the 2nd best offense.  Their run differential is projected to be bigger than Dover's and Arizona's combined.  Texas is real trouble on offense.  Buffalo is the San Francisco of the NL, but better.  They should make the playoffs this season and they are only getting better.