Monday, February 27, 2023

S54 World Series Predictions

Richard Castle - contributing reporter


After 4 seasons of being a top 1 or 2 team in the NL, the New Orleans Old Fashioneds finally find themselves in the World Series against the dreaded, evil, and defending champions Atlanta Expos; who are playing in their 3rd World Series in 4 years. Over the last two seasons, the Expos are 18-2; over the last 4 seasons they are 35-13. But if anyone is going to beat the Expos this year, it's the NOOFs. In this year's playoffs, the Expos have outscored their opponents 44-12 while the NOOFs are 59-38 in two more games; having to face the power bats of Hartford in the NLDS. 

Editor note: Considering all the lineup changes it's hard to do a straight position battle comparison, so I kept mostly to RHP + DH lineups for positions. 

DH: Nomar Rodgers (Atl) slight edge over James Kondou (NO) - Kondou has struggled as a back-up player all season but the original NOOF fans are excited to see him in the lineup again. He was a 20hr/30sb, .288 hitter the previous 4 years as the starting 1B until the trade of Keith Halter moved him to the backup role. Rodgers is a 25-30 HR, adding no stolen bases and averages all over the place. Even though he hit .239 this season, we'll still give the edge to Rodgers who has seen regular at-bats all season. If Kondou comes out swinging, this might be a wash. 

C: Gregorio Cordero (NO) over Chuck Herndon (Atl) - With the Expos Crain on the DL this season, Herndon is filling in behind the plate. Both catchers are tied and considered the best pitch callers in the league; which should help their amazing pitching staff. Cordero has had a career year and if it continues into the playoffs, expect some big things from the younger catcher. 

1B: Keith Halter (NO) over Wil Johnston (Atl) - Due to Crain being out we see a shift of Rodgers to DH, Herndon to C; leaving Johnston to man 1B. Defensively he'll beat out Halter because he's typically a 3B but his bat is no Halter; who hit 50 HR, 141 RBI, and a .308 AVG. 

2B: Matty Moss (Atl) small edge over Javier Quevedo (NO) - This is the toughest position battle of them all, as both players are on the MVP ballot this season. As discussed in the award post, Quevedo has seen better seasons before; but I'll take Moss over Quevedo every time. Strangely enough, both seem to be struggling in the playoffs. The one that's able to get things going might be what it takes for their team to win the series. 

3B: Josh Hunt (NO) over Vince Saarloos (Atl) - Don't rest on Saarloos's 25/20/.292 season but Hunt saw career highs across the board, and had a 41/35/.278 season himself. Those are huge numbers for someone hitting in the 5-6 hole of the lineup. 

SS: Jimmie Navarro (Atl) slight edge over Max Hernandez (NO). The two had identical averages while Hernandez offered a slight edge on OBP; Navarro clearly has the power advantage, 30 HRs to 12 for the NL SS. For discussion sake, errors are equal (slightly favoring Hernandez), but Max offers more Plus Plays. Since we are in league where chicks dig the long balls, we'll go with Navarro on this one. A glove doesn't get you into the Hall. 

LF: Juancito Martin (NO) slight edge over TJ Christenson (Atl) - Another MVP caliber season for Martin that saw him with a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove; we are days away from finding out if he wins back to back MVPs. What started as a down year for Christenson seemed to turn out above average minus the batting average. He still added his 30ish HRs and 35ish SBs. 

CF: Yan Ozuna (NO) is a wash with Adam 'Batman' West (Atl) - Batman shifts from SS to CF with success this season but isn't quite the defensive player Ozuna is. For a slight drop (barely noticeable unless you are a super villan - .007), West adds 3 more HRs and nearly double the stolen bases. We are calling this a tie as surely the added defense makes up for slightly more power/speed. Interesting to note, Ozuna exactly lead the two in RBIs. 

RF: Johnnie Daniels (Atl) slight edge over Douglas Laxton (NO) - This is closer than people think. Player A: 37 HR, 118 RBI, 8 SB, .298 AVG. Player B: 37 HR, 105 RBI, 11 BS, .298 AVG.  The latter with 3 extra stolen bases but 13 less RBI is Gold Glove winner Daniels. He's a bit underrated if you ask me and was likely just outside the top 5 in the AL for MVP so didn't quite make the ballot. Laxton had a great season as well, likely sitting just outside the NL top 5 himself; but with a near tie at the plate, the winner goes with the better field and that is Daniels. 

vPitchers: Atlanta over New Orleans Adding in a new "battle" this season because it should be noted that Atlanta's hitters fair MUCH better against right handed pitchers and unfortunately for the NOOFs their staff this season is dominated by righties with only Bonilla likely to see major team on the mount. Their two lefty relievers will watch from the bench, not even from the bullpen in most cases. 

The position count is New Orleans' 4 and Atlanta's 4, a bit closer for Atlanta from last season's favorite over the Buffalo bats. Though Atlanta did end up sweeping the NL Champs last year. In a best of 7 series, these bats could really go either way, they are all that close of a matchup. Now let's take a quick look at the pitching.  

SP: Allen Street, JC Wall, Damaso Ethier (Atl) slight edge over Bennie Swann, Louis Combs, Rico Bonilla (NO) - Hard to find comps to each pitching staff but most of these guys have been in the Cy Young award discussions the last couple of seasons. If not for a season ending injury, we'd see William Thompson still on this list except he'd be playing for New Orleans this season. The Expo faithful were looking to both cheer and boo him when he visited the stadium he once called home. Consider how the NOOF starters have been pitching in this year's playoffs, the edge is much bigger but maybe the extra rest since both team's sweep to make the World Series will be good for them. Street has made great strides this season as previously documented by the blog, but Wall was just league average this season; so it could really go either way considering the bats they are facing this series. 

RP: Zephyr Gross, Ossie Crow, Steve Etherton (Atl) slight edge over Danys Solis, Troy Houston, and Yao-Hsun Higashioka (NO) - This is likely one of the weaker bullpens for the NOOFs over recent seasons, and both bullpens include a 7th/8th inning guy who could be closing for most every other team in the league. Gross and Solis will play the LRA role with a spot start if needed around game 4-5 depending on how rested the main starters are.  

Closer: Ronnie Andrews (NO) slight edge over Stephen Ramirez (Atl) - The four time Fireman of the Year and his 172 ERA+/3.81 FIP edges out Ramirez.'s 109 ERA+/4.25 FIP. But both are VERY similar pitchers. If either player comes in, it's likely game over. There's a chance if the bats get going we might not see either of these pitchers either. 

Manager: ekoontz41 huge edge over minihouston - .523 vs .501 career winning percentage, because of the NOOFs 114-48 season, minihouston finally has a winning career record. ekoontz41 has a post reason record of 321-244 in 103 total seasons. Their head to head has ekoontz winning 4 games to 2; but that was a few seasons back. WIS has been a huge learning curve for minihouston and being the first time for them in the world series; the experience has to mean something. 


EDGE: New Orleans over Atlanta in 7. Just because the blog's home office is in New Orleans doesn't mean anything. This blog will not admit to being fans of the NOOFs as I, Richard Castle, am completely unbiased in my writing. That said....GO NOOFS!!!!