Monday, February 20, 2023

And the S54 award goes to....

 Jack Torrance - Contributing Reporter



And the Award goes to...

Continuing off last year's award season. You can generally find the runs, HRs, RBIs, and AVG listed on the website when voting but we'll cover a few of the player's advanced stats; including their Cash points (fantasy points - offense focused), weighted SBs (when relevant, attempted 15 or more), extra base hits, a player's wOBA (weighted on-base average), rc27 (runs created per 27 outs), and even a player's wRAA (weighed runs above average). All in the effort to see how each individual effected the games they played. Players in bold is our predicted winner.

MVP

We'll start off with the MVP race, listed by Skynet's favorites (ie. listed in order from website)

  • AL - Kyle Crain (C/DH), who won the last two AL MVPs, suffered an early injury that kept him out all season, which left the door open for others to step up their game. 2B Matty Moss is the only name we've seen in years past as it seems mostly a fresh set of players becoming the stars of the AL. Not to be outdone is future....can we really say future if he's been an All-Star, Home Run Derby champ, and now in the running for AL MVP...(1B) Wei-Yin Wan of the Huntington Tropics. A name we are sure will be listed in this discussion for years to come. Houston Space Cowboys own, (1B/2B/LF) Carlos Soto is another name that often gets overlooked but finally given some dues. He's a major reason Houston was ranked #1 in the AL. (2B) Al Cerantes slips into the voting the last bit of the season, but good to see another familiar name. And finally (LF) Yoervis Colome of the New York Empire. Soto and Moss should get a few extra points for covering some of the tougher fielding positions, but this is a man's league and we value power here! 
    • Wei-Yin Wan (1B) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 817
      • xBH - 85
      • wRAA - 39.9
      • wOBA - .395
      • RC27 - 12
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: A great season by WYW that saw him help lead his team into the playoffs for the first time since S24 when they last won the division. I wonder what he could do as a #3 hitter rather than hitting lead off. His RC27 ranks #4 all time in a single season. His 817 Cash Points lead the league by a large margin. 
    • Matty Moss (2B)
      • Cash points - 608
      • xBH - 68
      • wRAA - 49
      • wOBA - .412
      • RC27 - 9.71
      • wSB - 14
        • Case for: The Expos saw the loss of the reigning AL MVP, Kyle Crain but Matty stepped up his game and continued to carry the team. Most productive player in terms of stolen bases, 99 steals in 102 attempts. Ranks #1 in the AL in wRAA. #2 in RC27 to WYW. His wOBA puts him in the excellent range and leads all other AL candidates. 
    • Yoervis Colome (LF)
      • Cash points - 542.5
      • xBH - 82
      • wRAA - 44.8
      • wOBA - .396
      • RC27 - 6.87
      • wSB - 5
        • Case for: Playing in the big market of New York, he'll likely get a couple of votes but he's second fiddle to at least one name in every category on this list. But that's not a dig, where others have holes in their game; Colome picks up in every category and advanced stat. He's behind WYW in power stats, behind Moss in Speed and wRAA; but he's ahead of the other in those stats as well. What's the saying, 'a jack of all trades is a master of none, but oftentimes better than a master of one.' 
    • Carlos Soto (1B/2B/LF)
      • Cash points - 593
      • xBH - 72
      • wRAA - 43.8
      • wOBA - .410
      • RC27 - 8.15
      • wSB - 4
        • Case for: A fantastic season for Soto and surely him moving around the diamond helped his team secure the #1 seed in the AL. He's #2 in wOBA for the possible AL MVPs and middle of the road in most every other stat. Houston wouldn't be where they are without him, but is that the Most Valuable Player of the American League? 
    • Al Cervantes (2B)
      • Cash points - 568.8
      • xBH - 74
      • wRAA - 37.3
      • wOBA - .385
      • RC27 - 7.3
      • wSB - 0
        • Case for: Philly's final push for the season squeaked them into the playoffs. But I can't point to many other stats where Cervantes was the best. 
  • NL - Admittedly two of the best, if not the best hitters this season were excluded likely to their in-season trade. Which makes no sense given they were traded from the NL to the NL. But alas, we are missing both S53 Co-MVP (1B) Keith Halter and (1B) Omar Gonzales were omitted from the voting ballot. Both were also snubbed from the All-Star game too. However a few other familiar names appear once again, including S53 Co-MVP (LF) Juancito Martin and (3B) Rip Bromberg. Both are similar players who are front of the lineup types. hitting well above .300; Martin offers more power and speed but Rip will always have the higher average. Not left off the ballot is Gonzales' teammate, (CF) Bonk Burnett and a power of Chicago Gunslingers in (2B) Shea Crowe and (3B) Jhonny Rijo. But once again no Tarraga, I guess who reign at the top of the NL is truly over. Sad day!
    • Shea Crowe (2B) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 611
      • xBH - 87
      • wRAA - 61.6
      • wOBA - .436
      • RC27 - 8.92
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: Leads in most every category and one of the big reasons Chicago overtook Hartford for the division and #2 seed. Second to only Omar Gonzales in HRs in the NL. Ranked behind Halter as well in RBI. Also ranked 5th in runs behind those two and the two NOOFs on the ballot. His .436 wOBA ranks behind only the NOOFs Douglas Laxton and Omar Gonzales for those with at least 350 ABs. 
    • Bonk Burnett (CF)
      • Cash points - 584
      • xBH - 76
      • wRAA - 52.6
      • wOBA - .431
      • RC27 - 8.38
      • wSB - 1
        • Case for: I think this is a two player race since neither Gonzales nor Halter are on the ballot this year. Part of the 50 HR club and major run producer for the highest scoring team in Cobbfather this year, the Hartford Rising Stars. His Cash Points rank behind 3 NOOFs (Laxton, Martin, and Halter), Omar Gonzales, and Shea Crowe. 
    • Rip Bromberg (3B)
      • Cash points - 534
      • xBH - 67
      • wRAA - 43.7
      • wOBA - .398
      • RC27 - 7.58
      • wSB - 0
        • Case for: Once again Rip lead the NL in average and hits; the Pittsburgh team is a VERY different team with Rip than it is without. Take him out of the lineup and Pittsburgh doesn't claim the division and might not even take the wildcard slot. That doesn't mean he was the best player in the NL, but does show how impactful he would be in any lineup. 
    • Juancito Martin (LF)
      • Cash points - 588.5
      • xBH - 71
      • wRAA - 42.1
      • wOBA - .396
      • RC27 - 7.38
      • wSB - 6
        • Case for: Reigning MVP who proved once again what he could do, though admittedly his stats slipped a bit from the year before. You often see MVP candidates with Silver Slugger awards, but Martin also secured a Gold Glove in LF as well. His Cash Points are second highest on the NL list, but mostly ranks just behind the power guys in most other categories. Surpassed 200 hits this season. 
    • Javier Quevedo (2B) 
      • Cash points - 497
      • xBH - 64
      • wRAA - 30.5
      • wOBA - .378
      • RC27 - 7.28
      • wSB - 6
        • Case for: Q as he's known to NOOF fans, should just be happy to be on this list; but makes me wonder if it was just a down year. He had a MUCH better S51 yet wasn't nominated that year. But he did set the table well for the NOOFs who had plenty of bats behind him. He lead the league in Triples and scored more runs than anyone else on this list. 

Cy Young

Next we have the Cy Young award. This time we'll be looking at a few advanced stats such as ERA+, FIP, Weighted Cash points to neutralize park factors. In the future, if we can figure out why our WAR numbers are so off, we'll include those as well. But for now we'll include K/BB and Quality Starts or Inherited Runners Scored as well. A reminder on ERA+, the average is 100 and anything above 100 indicates the pitcher performed better than average while below performed worse than average. Score of 150 would be 50% better than average. The FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: K, BB, HBP, and HR. 
  • AL - A lot of new names this season and finally the appearance of Roger Simon who was projected by this blog to be in this conversation for quite a few years. His teammate Fausto Cruz also makes the ballot. Atlanta's sole representative is Zephyr Gross, which seems a bit strange given their pitching strength over the last few seasons. Watching the playoffs from home is Colorado Springs' Arismendy Costilla and finally Housotn's Mitch Dillard, the Houston fans are glad to finally see him promoted to the majors, as he reaches the age 27 next season. 
    • Mitch Dillard
      • ERA+ - 165
      • FIP - 3.36
      • Cash - 484
      • K/BB - 3.45
      • QS% - 44%
        • Case for: He put up fantastic strike out numbers, reaching the 200k plateau during his final appearance. Which is quite an amazing feat given he often only pitching 5 innings due to stamina concerns. His 165 ERA+ only trails Simon on this list, while his 3.36 FIP just slightly trails Cruz in nearly double the innings. His 484 Cash Points lead all pitchers on this list, though likely due to his high strikeout rate. 
    • Arismendy Costilla
      • ERA+ - 152
      • FIP - 3.38
      • Cash - 460
      • K/BB - 2.45
      • QS% - 70%
        • Case for: Most Wins in the AL and threw 70% of his starts for at least 6 innings and under 3 runs; second to most in Quality Starts to his teammate Tony Lim. That's helping out your team! Second to only Mitch Dillard on this list in Cash Points. Out of the 5, Castilla walked the fewest per 9, though isn't known for his strikeouts. Gave up the fewest HR/9 compared to all others on this list. 
    • Roger Simon 
      • ERA+ - 168
      • FIP - 3.51
      • Cash - 455
      • K/BB - 2.71
      • QS% - 64%
        • Case for: Just barely beats out Dillard in ERA+, but lead the AL in OAV, third in WHIP, and fourth in ERA. The three men who finished with a lower ERA are also on this ballot. 
    • Zephyr Gross
      • ERA+ - 121
      • FIP - 3.81
      • Cash - 423
      • K/BB - 2.11
      • QS - 69%
        • Case for: He held his own but his ERA+ and FIP are lowest on this list. Gross picked up a lot of slack for the Expos, but think he's on the outside looking in for this year's award. 
    • Fausto Cruz - Projected Winner
      • ERA+ - 173
      • FIP - 3.10
      • Cash - 447
      • K/BB - 2.95
      • QS% - 33%
        • Case for: Traded mid-season, he proved valuable to Huntington and helped get them into the playoffs. His ERA+ is top of the list, FIP the lowest, though somehow turned in the fewest quality starts. 
  • NL - It was a close race last year, but Nigel White beat out Ronnie Andrews in his first year in the NL. After joining the NOOFs mid-season, S52 & S53 AL Cy Young winner William Thompson was having another quality year and was even still considered for the award many games after his injury. That's saying something that he wasn't even getting starts and was still considered to be on the ballot. In the end we have some interesting names once again. Alton Drew of the Chicago Gunslingers is a typical name you see on this list that can't see to get over the hump and win the award for himself. Bennie Swann of New Orleans makes another case for a Cy Young; he really seems to have stepped up his game playing in New Orleans, this being his 4th year on the team and 2nd time up for this award by season's end. Joining him is teammate Louis Combs who has seen similar success with the NOOFs. Lastly is Yamil Torres, teammate to Alton Drew in Chicago. 
    • Nigel White
      • ERA+ - 252
      • FIP - 2.24
      • Cash - 518
      • K/BB - 4.48
      • QS% - 61%
        • Case for: White was...well White. Exactly what you'd expect from him. He threw the fewest innings from this list, but his ERA+ of 252 ranks up there with the best all time and well above any other pitcher both AL and NL this season. His FIP took a slight bump but still under 2.25. 
    • Bennie Swann - Predicted Winner
      • ERA+ - 197
      • FIP - 3.25
      • Cash - 517
      • K/BB - 2.83
      • QS% - 78%
        • Case for: The NL leader in Wins, OAV, WHIP, and SLG; and should be noted second most innings pitched in the NL; so he stood the test of time this season as well. He produced more quality starts than any other NL pitcher, giving him team the best chance to win. Tied for first in lowest OBP with White. His ERA+ shows he was nearly 100% more valuable than the replacement pitcher and is second to only White. 
    • Yamil Torres
      • ERA+ - 139
      • FIP - 3.31
      • Cash - 412
      • K/BB - 2.69
      • QS% - 64%
        • Case for: There's always one guy on the outside looking in and that's Torres this season. shouldn't discount the quality of his season, but he trails the others in most categories. Should still be exciting to see what he does in the playoffs this year. 
    • Alton Drew
      • ERA+ - 170
      • FIP - 2.76
      • Cash - 604
      • K/BB - 3.67
      • QS% - 76%
        • Case for: His hat it held up the fact that he lead the league in strikeouts and innings pitched. He'd be the ace for the majority of other teams in Cobbfather. 
    • Louis Combs
      • ERA+ - 156
      • FIP - 3.54
      • Cash - 421
      • K/BB - 2.44
      • QS% - 73%
        • Case for: Combs likely comes in a notch above Torres but it's close. The other three are the clear favorites to win. 

Rookie of the Year

And you can't forget our about Rookies. This one gets a little trickier as the list often mixes pitchers with hitters. But we'll do the best we can. 
  • AL - Lots of fun names this year, including the AL Fireman of the Year Darby Hatcher. Along with fellow reliever Whit Benoit from Helena. The well traveled Robin Motte joints the list with two bats, 3B Woodie Yarnall and 1B Del 'Ellen' Allen.
    • Woodie Yarnall (3B) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 495
      • xBH - 67
      • wRAA - 31.7
      • wOBA - .385
      • RC27 - 6.92
      • wSB - 6
        • Case for: He's not far off from MVP candidate (2B) Al Cervantes. He was one of 6 players in Cobbfather to record a 30 HR - 30 SB season; but also notched 30+ 2Bs as well. The big question will be how important is it that a player's team makes the playoffs in the comparison of Yarnall vs Hatcher for the Rookie award. Houston was making the playoffs no matter what, but Boston wouldn't have even been close without Yarnall this season. 
    • Whit Benoit (RP)
      • ERA+ - 176
      • FIP - 4.27
      • Cash - 240
      • K/BB - 1.52
      • IRS% - 26%
        • Case for: Was a strong piece for the Hot Dogs in claiming their division. However he's clearly a step behind Hatcher, even if he appeared in twice as many innings as the saves leader. I'll expect good things out of him in the future. 
    • Darby Hatcher (RP) 
      • ERA+ - 263
      • FIP - 2.77
      • Cash - 273
      • K/BB - 3.23
      • IRS% - 0%
        • Case for: AL leader in Saves, though oddly enough he only had 1 inherited runner all season and kept him on base. A superb ERA+ unmatched by nearly everyone in the AL. Stranded 87% of runners, and owns a FIP below 3.00. Did everything asked of him and helped Houston claim the #1 seed in the AL. 
    • Robin Motte (SP)
      • ERA+ - 117
      • FIP - 3.72
      • Cash - 322.5
      • K/BB - 2.6
      • QS% - 48%
        • Case for: Motte is an interesting case in how he got to Seoul. He was waived by New Orleans to create roster space and claimed by Mexico City and then skipped over by every team in the Rule 5 until Seoul picked up him in the 2nd round at pick 57. His ERA+ notes he was 17% better than the average pitcher this season and ranks higher in Cash Points than the other two rookie pitchers; but that's mostly due to the system favoring starters over relievers. Won double digits this season for a rebuilding club. 
    • Del Allen (1B)
      • Cash points - 382.5
      • xBH - 30
      • wRAA - -8.3
      • wOBA - .309
      • RC27 - 4.64
      • wSB - 8
        • Case for: Not many Rookies come in and win a Gold Glove but Allen did just that for the Hot Dogs. His wOBA falls just under Below Average and his wRAA ended up in the negatives but he adds value in steals and defense. 
  • NL - Another interesting group that will be fun to watch grow. reliever Nash Washington, Jeff Jones, and a few bats 3B Chili Lawton, LF Ernest Clements, and 1B Jason McGuiness. Interesting enough all but one of those guys are watching the playoffs from home. Jones follows teammate Mike Young in being nominated for the award. While McGuiness hopes to do what his teammate Emilio Molina couldn't do last year and take the trophy home for himself. 
    • Nash Washington (RP)
      • ERA+ - 117
      • FIP - 3.95
      • Cash - 204.5
      • K/BB - 2.48
      • IRS% - 15%
        • Case for: Nearly 90 innings out the bullpen, with above average performance, though interesting enough his FIP is nearly a full run above his ERA. He stranded 85% of runners and only let 15% of inherited runners score. His numbers feel like they are all over the board. A near 4 FIP isn't great, but he seemed to produce and hold enough leads. 
    • Jeff Jones (RP)
      • ERA+ - 98
      • FIP - 3.63
      • Cash - 216
      • K/BB - 2.08
      • IRS% - 41%
        • Case for: NL leader in Saves. But that's about where the stats stop. He stranded 75% of runners but also let an alarming 41% of inherited runners score. Given the 39 saves, he must have came in with quite a few 2-3 run leads. 
    • Ernest Clements (LF)
      • Cash points - 268
      • xBH - 42
      • wRAA - -8.7
      • wOBA - .306
      • RC27 - 3.91
      • wSB - 4
        • Case for: Hard to make a case for Clements, this spot on the ballot would likely have made more sense for Chris Martin (Mon) who had a near 20 wRAA or Yovani Franco (Buf) whose wRAA was near 25 would have made more sense. Both players have wOBAs in the 'great' range. 
    • Chili Lawton (3B)
      • Cash points - 249.5
      • xBH - 35
      • wRAA - 10.3
      • wOBA - .349
      • RC27 - 5.15
      • wSB - 3
        • Case for: Lawton provided solid defense at the hot corner which is likely why he's on this list compared to teammate Chris Martin mentioned above. Let's see how the voters value the glove. 
    • Jason McGuiness (1B) - Projected Winner
      • Cash points - 354
      • xBH - 53
      • wRAA - -1.9
      • wOBA - .320
      • RC27 - 4.67
      • wSB - 7
        • Case for: McGuiness was one of a few players who reached 20+ 2B (24), 20+ HR (22), and 20+ SB (43). With a few more games, he might have crossed the 100 R / 100 RBI threshold as well. Which is why I'm so surprised to see his negative value in wRAA but it likely has a lot to do with the number of strikeouts and limited walks. This might be a time where those advances stats just don't match up to what the player provides. 

Cash Points

The top 20 hitters players under the Cash system are:
  1. 817 - Wei-Yin Wan (Hun)
  2. 736 - Omar Gonzales (Tok/Har)
  3. 659 - Keith Halter (CLB/NO)
  4. 611 - Shea Crowe (Chi)
  5. 608 - Matty Moss (Atl)
  6. 594.5 - Douglas Laxton (NO)
  7. 593 - Carlos Soto (Hou)
  8. 588.5 - Juancito Martin (NO)
  9. 584 - Bonk Burnett (Har)
  10. 578.5 - Gregorio Cordero (NO)
  11. 568.5 - Al Cervantes (Phi)
  12. 556 - Damion Ni (Hun)
  13. 543 - Jeremi Diaz (Hun)
  14. 542.5 - Yoervis Colome (NY)
  15. 539.5 - Vin Pirela (Phi)
  16. 534 - Rip Bromberg (Pit)
  17. 528 - Brad Vernon (VC)
  18. 523.5 - Alex Perez (Mont)
  19. 519 - Chuck Rupe (Phi)
  20. 515 - Marlon Fowler (Hel)
And the bottom 10 hitters with at least 300 ABs are. It's generally filled with SSs who often but not always provide solid defense to make up for it. Let's see who we've got this year. One thing to note, no Garabez Belliard now that Hartford replaced him. And what a smart move, he was a killer of runs. 
  1. 58 - Mark Durrington (Mon - SS)
    1. -34.4 wRAA
  2. 82.5 - Matty Doubront (Mil - SS) - AL Gold Glove winner
    1. -30.2  wRAA
  3. 103 - Stephen Donnels (Aug - SS)
    1. -22.9  wRAA
  4. 105 - Sal Judge (Aug - CF)
    1. -17.1  wRAA
  5. 107 - Willie Rios (Bos - SS)
    1. -46.2  wRAA
The top 20 pitchers under the cash system are:
  1. 604 - Alton Drew (Chi)
  2. 518 - Nigel White (Har)
  3. 517 - Bennie Swann (NO)
  4. 484 - Mitch Dillard (Hou)
  5. 476 - Jiovanni Poole (NY)
  6. 463 - Tomas Benitez (Hel)
  7. 462 - Tony Lim (CSP)
  8. 460 - Arismendy Costilla (CSP)
  9. 458 - Brian Fukudome (Pit)
  10. 455 - Roger Simon (Hun)
  11. 449 - Rico Bonillla (NO)
  12. 447 - Fausto Cruz (Hun)
  13. 444 - Joaquin Owen (Phi)
  14. 438 - Koyie Ward (CSP)
  15. 428 - Damaso Ethier (Atl)
  16. 423 - Zephyr Gross (Atl)
  17. 421 - Luis Combs (NO)
  18. 417 - Tony Holdridge (Aus)
  19. 412 - Avisail Mujica (Har)
  20. 412 - Yamil Torres (Chi)