Friday, January 23, 2009

Season 3 World Series Preview

Leon Jackson - Cobbfather Post Gazette

I'd like to start this article with a definitive "No Comment" regarding any recent press regarding my or my neighbor's home life. Thank you. Now, it's on to the World Series! The Gazette's heralded team of Season 3, the Sacramento Fighting Cornish Hens, swept through the NLCS, while the Chicago Chokers won a tough ALCS matchup vs. Florida to make their 3rd straight World Series. Will Sacto prevail finally bringing their long suffering owner that elusive World Series title? Will Chicago choke again and lose their 3rd straight World Series? Or is it the end of "wait til next year" for the Chokers? Let's get to the analysis!

CHICAGO CHOKERS (AL) vs. SACRAMENTO FIGHTING CORNISH HENS (NL)

TALE OF THE TAPE

Chicago
Sacramento
0.287 AVG 0.280
0.355 OBP 0.351
0.492 SLG 0.456
292 HR 248
183 SB 123
1008 RS 907
749 RA 671
4.34 ERA 3.82
1.39 WHIP 1.32
0.987 Fielding % 0.984
111 Wins 112

OFFENSE

In just about every single offensive stat, Chicago appears to have outperformed Sacramento this season. The question remains, how much of that advantage is due to the offensively friendly confines of Wrigley Field? Certainly, the numbers would have been far closer if both played in neutral parks. But you also can't entirely discredit Chicago's stellar offensive output as being due to their home park, as their lineup is very impressive throughout. In the playoffs, Chicago has hit very well putting up a .295 BA and have been getting on base at a solid .376 rate. Hick Millwood (.419 BA, 1.121 OPS) and Ed Morris (.364 BA, .997 OPS) have led the charge offensively during the post-season. But perhaps the more interesting fact is who is not hitting for Chicago during the playoffs, sluggers Mendy Washington and Fred McNamara have had poor post seasons to date. If those two get on track during the World Series, it's going to be very tough to stop the Chicago offense. Looking at Sacramento's offensive post-season stats, they have struggled in batting average (.245) and on-base percentage (.292) compared to their regular season stats. As mentioned in the LCS preview, the loss of top hitter Jack Bottalico could be a cause. It is interesting to note, however, that Sacramento has hit 3 more home runs this post season than Chicago in two less games, and they have some struggling stars of their own who have underperfomed in the playoffs, like Moses Terrero and Ricky Swann, for instance.

PITCHING

The tale of the tape shows that Sacramento has the pitching statistical categories dominated as much as Chicago dominates the offensive categories, although the same thing can be said about stadium factors, as Sacramento is a pitcher friendly park. Sacramento's rotation has been nearly flawless in the playoffs, as Leon, Maduro, and Chiounard have all pitched very well. The same could be said about closer Sammy Felix, who is 4 for 4 in save opportunities this post-season. The rest of the bullpen obviously hasn't been too bad either, given a team ERA of 2.96 in the playoffs. For Chicago, a positive sign is that ace Carl Sosa rebounded with two solid outings in the LCS, after a mediocre DCS. In the LCS, Dan Stahoviak had a great start in game 5, his first post season appearance. It will be interesting to see if Chicago will ride his hot arm over Sheldon and Hartman who have been struggling in the post-season. Bullpen wise, closer Paul Watson is also 4 for 4 in save opportunities and hasn't allowed an ER to boot! Actually, the whole bullpen has pitched extremely well for Chicago this post-season, with the exception of Andres Pena, who just hasn't found his groove, and will look to rebound in the World Series.

OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER

- Chicago had the better fielding % during the regular season, although Sacramento has the slight edge during the post season.
- Sacramento is riding the momentum of a sweep in the LCS, while Chicago took 6 to win their LCS.
- The Chicago franchise is in the World Series for the third straight year, amazingly under 3 different owners, but "choked" the last 2 times.
- slashtc has a World Series title and a great post season record to his credit, while FW_Kekionga's teams have struggled mightly in the post-season prior to Sacto's run this season.
- the 2 teams did not play in the Regular Season
- Sacramento has home field advantage.
- Sacramento was the Gazette's preseason pick to win the World Series.

FINAL SUMMARY

This is going to be a tight series contested between two very good teams. Both teams are stacked, and it's tough to find a distinct advantage for either team statistically, when you take into account their park factors. After comparing the teams it's a tough call who's going to win, but we've got to make a prediction. And in the end, there's nothing that's changed from the preseason that has altered our opinion that Sacramento is the team to beat in Cobbfather this season, baby!!!!

Prediction: Sacramento in 6

Looking forward to a great series between two tremendous teams! Good luck!