Tuesday, November 29, 2022

S53 World Series Predictions

Richard Castle - contributing reporter

Buffalo finds their aging stars quickly approaching the tail end of their careers, having won their division 10 of the last 15 seasons. But don't let that quote fool you, Tarraga and Lopez are the only two players on this roster over the age of 31. While Atlanta has just hit their stride, appearing in 3 of the last 5 World Series. 

Editor note: Considering all the lineup changes it's hard to do a straight position battle comparison, so I kept mostly to RHP + DH lineups for positions. 

DH: Chuck Herndon (Atl) over Willie Golub (Buf) - very similar OBPs and neither with very much speed, the power of Herndon earns him the edge. 

C: Kyle Crain (Atl) over Braulio Guardado (Buf) - What a year the 4 year vet had for Buffalo but was it a career year for the young catcher? And you just can't argue with the 25 yr old (younger) Crain's 50+ HR and .300+ AVG output on a yearly basis; Crain is doing what Tarraga was doing a few years ago. 

1B: Alex Tarraga (Buf) over Nomar Rodgers (Atl) - Tarraga had a down year, and is clearly better than the numbers he put this season; but he is on the decline and the Expos 3 aces are all righties. If S52 Rodgers, who 45 HR on a .281 average shows up rather than the S51 & 53 who hit 26 HR on a .273 average; it could become a slight edge to Buffalo.

2B: Matty Moss (Atl) over Conor Christiansen (Buf) - The constant AL MVP threat is one of the best 2B in the game today, his Moss' .290 with 20+ HR, 35+ 2Bs, 70-90 SBs definitely tops the low OBP, limited power, and limited speed of Christiansen by more than a mile (1.6 km).

3B: Bernie Mendez (Buf) slight edge over Vince Saarloos (Atl) - Mendez is an above average hitter with near 20 HR power and 10-15 SB speed. But fans are excited to see what rookie Saarloos can do in the future. This season he came in at 10 HR, 15 SB, on a .250 average. 

SS: JO Avila (Buf) slight edge over Adam 'Batman' West (Atl). One has more speed/power combo, the others is better about getting on base. Defensively Avila is well above West at Short and that's where he earns the edge over West.  

LF: TJ Christenson (Atl) over Rich HIller (Buf) - Christenson the 30/35 threat was once again on the ballot for the AL MVP. Where Hiller had a down year but is still just a .260 hitter with limited power and speed. 

CF: Francis Jefferson (Buf) slight edge over Ed Watanabe / Davy Oliver (Atl) platoon - S52 Rooke of the Year takes it, even if he took a big step backwards from his rookie season He still managed a 20/25 season on a .270 average.  

RF: Johnnie Daniels (Atl)  over Alexander Vaughn (Buf) - Even after missing time this season Daniels still hit 32 HRs, while Vaughn was able to reach base more often he didn't offer a ton in HRs or SBs. 

The position count is Atlanta's 5 over Buffalo's 4, but given how many of those four are slight edges it could favor the Expos quickly. Now let's take a quick look at the pitching. Outside of Guardado and Tarraga, I wouldn't expect many homers from this Bisons squad and nor are they a running team; but they will do their best to get on base and move the runners around. Which could prove difficult against the best pitching staff in Cobbfather. 

SP: JC Wall, William Thompson, Damaso Ethier (Atl) over Gregor Lopez, Del Viciedo, Eli Moreno (Buf) - Every day of the week, Atlanta has the favored pitching. Lopez aged quite a bit this season and might be his final season unless some team is willing to sign him to a one year deal, though I'd hate to see his career marks take that hit; though he did still win 17 games this year. Atlanta also has Quilvio Infante and Zephyr Gross if needed while Buffalo has Pascaul Mijares. 

RP: Fautino Salas, Ossie Crow, Steve Etherton (Atl) slight edge over Miguel Castillo, Sammy Sivilla, Russell Heath, and Nestor Alou (Atl) - While Atlanta's rotation is better than their bullpen, they are no slouch either. Especially once they hit their stride the second half of the season. Most of the playoffs New Orleans has looked forward to a bullpen game if needed, but they've not had to face this quality of bullpen yet. 

Closer: Rookie Stephen Ramirez (Atl) over Jayson Roof (Buf) - The rookie really put on a show this season once he took over the closer role.  He seems more of a lock than Roof to close out some of the most important games of his career, but will the Rookie be up for it? 

Manager: ekoontz41 slight edge over bjc30 - .523 vs .522 career winning percentage, ekoontz41 has a post reason record of 321-244 in 103 total seasons. 50% of those his team has made the playoffs, 39 being Division Titles, and 13 World Series titles. bjc30 has seen his fair share of playoffs, but is only 455-491 in 291 seasons. I'd be curious to know their head to head over the years as both have been long time Cobbfather members. 


EDGE: Atlanta over Buffalo in 5. Wouldn't be the first time Buffalo is an underdog this season. Let's go!!!