topoftheworl's Season 24 Preview

I had a little extra time this last week (Barrow, AK, my home, shuts down for a local holiday on the 2nd so we all had a 5 day weekend) and the wife and kids are out of town.  Rather than do something useful I broke out an old spreadsheet I had and put Cobbfather's 32 teams into it.  I used to do the blog over in Long Haul and I used it then.  I asked A-log if I could share my results and the fruit of my efforts is below.  I'll start by giving the caveat that it is really hard to quantify defense into a formula and so while I try, its probably undervalued in my final product.

Projected AL records:

AL North	W	Ḷ	GB
Pawtucket	90	72	-
St. Louis	86	76	4
Cincinnati	79	83	11
New York	69	93	22
AL East	W	Ḷ	GB
Atlanta	111	51	-
Boston	100	62	11
Trenton	81	81	30
Durham	71	91	39
AL South	W	Ḷ	GB
San Juan	92	70	-
Charlotte	85	77	7
Louisville	76	86	16
Tampa Bay	75	87	17
AL West	W	Ḷ	GB
San Francisco	76	86	-
Colorado Springs	73	89	3
Albuquerque	66	96	9
Salem	65	97	10

My thoughts:  If this holds I will owe ploppie a season since I promised 76 wins.  I ran Tampa Bay twice because I didn't believe how poorly they did.   San Francisco is a team to watch.  Not only are they the class of the West now, but they are only getting better (more on that later).  Atlanta has the best offense and the 2nd best pitching.  Boston has the best pitching and the 2nd best hitting.  One of them will not win their division ;)  Trenton projects to have a run differential of 0.  I've never had that happen before.

Projected NL records:

NL North	W	Ḷ	GB
Ottawa	87	75	-
Pittsburgh	83	79	4
Syracuse	78	84	8
Seattle	72	90	15
NL East	W	Ḷ	GB
Dover	95	67	-
Buffalo	86	76	9
Florida	77	85	18
Philadelphia	71	91	24
NL South	W	Ḷ	GB
Houston	107	55	-
Jacksonville	81	81	26
Austin	73	89	34
Texas	60	102	47
NL West	W	Ḷ	GB
Arizona	91	71	-
Los Angeles	80	82	11
Salt Lake City	79	83	12
Las Vegas	78	84	13

My thoughts:  Houston is really, really good.  Their pitching staff is projected to be 20 runs better than LA's and 60 runs better than anyone else.  In addition they have the 2nd best offense.  Their run differential is projected to be bigger than Dover's and Arizona's combined.  Texas is real trouble on offense.  Buffalo is the San Francisco of the NL, but better.  They should make the playoffs this season and they are only getting better.