Monday, July 7, 2014

topoftheworl's Season 24 Preview

I had a little extra time this last week (Barrow, AK, my home, shuts down for a local holiday on the 2nd so we all had a 5 day weekend) and the wife and kids are out of town.  Rather than do something useful I broke out an old spreadsheet I had and put Cobbfather's 32 teams into it.  I used to do the blog over in Long Haul and I used it then.  I asked A-log if I could share my results and the fruit of my efforts is below.  I'll start by giving the caveat that it is really hard to quantify defense into a formula and so while I try, its probably undervalued in my final product.

Projected AL records:

AL North W GB
Pawtucket
90 72 -
St. Louis 86 76 4
Cincinnati
79 83 11
New York 69 93 22




AL East
W GB
Atlanta 111 51 -
Boston
100 62 11
Trenton
81 81 30
Durham 71 91 39




AL South
W GB
San Juan 92 70 -
Charlotte
85 77 7
Louisville 76 86 16
Tampa Bay 75 87 17




AL West
W GB
San Francisco
76 86 -
Colorado Springs
73 89 3
Albuquerque 66 96 9
Salem 65 97 10

My thoughts:  If this holds I will owe ploppie a season since I promised 76 wins.  I ran Tampa Bay twice because I didn't believe how poorly they did.   San Francisco is a team to watch.  Not only are they the class of the West now, but they are only getting better (more on that later).  Atlanta has the best offense and the 2nd best pitching.  Boston has the best pitching and the 2nd best hitting.  One of them will not win their division ;)  Trenton projects to have a run differential of 0.  I've never had that happen before.

Projected NL records:

NL North
W
GB
Ottawa
87 75 -
Pittsburgh
83 79 4
Syracuse
78 84 8
Seattle
72 90 15




NL East
W
GB
Dover
95 67 -
Buffalo
86 76 9
Florida
77 85 18
Philadelphia
71 91 24



NL South
W GB
Houston
107 55 -
Jacksonville
81 81 26
Austin
73 89 34
Texas
60 102 47


NL West
W GB
Arizona
91 71 -
Los Angeles
80 82 11
Salt Lake City
79 83 12
Las Vegas
78 84 13

My thoughts:  Houston is really, really good.  Their pitching staff is projected to be 20 runs better than LA's and 60 runs better than anyone else.  In addition they have the 2nd best offense.  Their run differential is projected to be bigger than Dover's and Arizona's combined.  Texas is real trouble on offense.  Buffalo is the San Francisco of the NL, but better.  They should make the playoffs this season and they are only getting better.

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