Monday, July 2, 2012

Season 10 - Draft Retrospective


This is a hindsight view of the Season 10 draft.  


The “re-draft” portion is based on a combination of ML production to date and potential for future production.  Neither the re-draft portion nor the grading take into account team need at the time, and is based solely on overall play and ratings.  


(All teams are listed as the current team location/name, not the team name at the time of the draft)


1. Cleveland Terriers 
Pick: Ned Meyers - SP
Age: 29
Stats: 67-34 / 3.40 ERA / 1.23 WHIP
Awards: All-Star x2
Notes:  Meyers has become a legitimate top-of-the-rotation option.  At 29, Meyers is one of the oldest players in the draft, but with an exceptional makeup, he should perform at high level for another 7-10 years.  Although not an exceptionally top-heavy draft, Meyers is currently the best player in this draft.
Grade: A
Re-draft: Ned Meyers (actual draft position: 1)

2. St. Louis Beermen
Pick: Dustan Jackson - 2B
Age: 25
Stats: 71 HR / 81 SB / .257/.320/.513
Awards: All-Star
NotesAfter a slow start to his Major League career, Jackson burst onto the scene in Season 16, hitting 48 HRs with a .931 OPS.  As an average defender at 2B, his offensive provides significant value as an up-the-middle player.  If Jackson continues as he did in Season 16, he may end surpassing Meyers as the best player in this draft.  Of course, if he struggles as he did in Season 15, he could end up sliding.
Grade: A-
Re-draft: Dustan Jackson (2)

3. Fargo Fighters
Pick: Lewis Peterson - SP
Age: 26
Stats: 52-34 / 3.52 / 1.27
Awards: Gold Glove
Notes:  A Junior College draftee, Peterson has not quite lived up to his immense potential (2 DL trips in the past four seasons), although he will be a solid top-of-the-rotation pitcher for the next decade.  Peterson is a big strikeout guy.  He and Daniel Hasselman will compete for the second best pitcher in this draft.
Grade: B+
Re-draft: David Silva (7)

4. El Paso TaTa’s
Pick: J.J. Landrum – CF
Unsigned
Grade: F
Re-draft: Lewis Peterson (3)

5. Vancouver Canadians
Pick: Arthur Stern - C/DH
Age: 25
Stats: 59 HR / 239 RBI / .290/.367/.487
Awards: None
Notes:  Stern is a big bat but struggled in Season 16, batting just .266 with a .339 OBP.  That will not be enough from a DH.  Stern has the chops to catch, if given the chance.  If he ends up behind the plate, his value increases significantly.
Grade: B
Re-draft: Daniel Hasselman (10)

6. Minnesota Bald Eagles
Pick: Dave Burch - SS
Unsigned
Grade: F
Re-draft: Homer Butler (8)
7. Tampa Bay HoundDogs
Pick: David Silva - CF
Age: 29
Stats: 114 HR / 339 RBI / 92 SB / .273/.339/.485
Awards: Silver Slugger, All-Star
Notes:  Silva is a slightly-above-average fielding CF who sticks.  Averaging 28.5 HRs over the past four seasons, Silva has been a 20/20 guy for the first four seasons of his career.  Silva’s consistently high play makes him one of the best picks of this draft.
Grade: A
Re-draft: Kennie Fister (17)

8. Salem Hammer’d Leprechauns
Pick: Homer Butler - RP
Age: 29
Stats: 133 SV / 3.18 ERA / 1.11 WHIP
Awards: All-Star x2, World Series
Notes:  Butler, although somewhat underutilized with his impressive combination of stamina and durability, has held a place as one of the top closers in the Majors for four seasons.  
Grade: B+
Re-draft: Chris Nye (9)

9. Austin Large Hats
Pick: Chris Nye - 2B
Age: 25
Stats: 21 HR / 25 SB / .284/.336/.469
Awards: None
Notes:  Nye is an above average defensive CF with 50+ SB potential.  Season 16 was Nye’s first full season in the Majors and performed well (.827 OPS).  There is no reason to believe that he can’t keep this production up.  If he does, Nye could jump up the list.
Grade: B+
Re-draft: Arthur Stern (5)

10. Little Rock Lewinskys
Pick: Daniel Haselman - SP
Age: 26
Stats: 48-23 / 3.55 ERA / 1.21 ERA
Awards: None
Notes:  After two straight 3.30 ERA seasons, Hasselman posted his worst season with a 4.13 ERA.  Despite slipping to 10, Hasselman has pitched as well as anyone in the draft to this point, although he is less likely than Meyers and Peterson to continue the success.
Grade: A
Re-draft: Johnny Saunders (18)

11. New York Primetimers
Pick: Alex Beamon - 2B
Age: 29
Stats: 10 HR / 163 SB / .264/.337/.321
Awards: None
Notes:  Beamon is an average fielding second baseman with no power.  His only real value on offense comes from his baserunning.
Grade: D
Re-draft: Dante Iwamura (29)

12. Burlington Huskies
Pick: Daniel Grove - RP
Age: 25
Stats: 9-34 / 98 SV / 5.51 ERA / 1.61 WHIP
Awards: None
Notes:  Grove has struggled mightily getting outs, and likely will not last much longer in the Majors unless he can get stop giving up so many runs.
Grade: D
Re-draft: Moose Gonzales (20)

13. Honolulu Keiki Hoku
Pick: Leonardo Ogden - P
Unsigned
Grade: F
Re-draft: Vasco Mendoza (15)

14. Boise Lake Monsters
Pick: Reid Aldridge - RP
Age: 29
Stats: 4.00 ERA / 1.31 WHIP
Awards: None
Notes:  Aldridge has had a rather unremarkable career to this point, pitching in just 37 ML games, including just 6 last season.  He has produced big league numbers in his limited opportunities.
Grade: C-
Re-draft: Trent Park (19)

15. Colorado Springs From My Loins
Pick: Vasco Mendoza - SS
Age: 27
Stats: 37 HR / .244/.309/.401
Awards: Gold Glove
Notes:  Mendoza has turned himself into an elite defensive SS.  He also provides a little pop from SS, and hits LHP well enough that he is worthy, at a minimum, of a platoon spot.  He is a free swinger, however, and will likely never get on base consistently.
Grade: B
Re-draft: Julian Beltre (16)

16. Syracuse Sycophants
Pick: Julian Beltre - SS/CF
Age: 28
Stats: 60 HR / .246/.310/.442
Awards: None
Notes:  Drafted as a SS, Beltre has split significant time in CF as well.  Defensively, he has struggled at both, and would be better suited at 3B or a COF spot.  Offensively, Beltre has shown some pop, although his bat will become less valuable as he moves to a corner spot, which is inevitable.
Grade: B-
Re-draft: Alberto Roriguez (28)

17. Durham Radicals
Pick: Kennie Fister - C
Age: 27
Stats: 46 HR / 181 RBI / .304/.375/.496
Awards: None
Notes:  Fister is a high-level defensive catcher who has hit a surprisingly effective rate.  He has all the tools to continue to produce at this pace.  Although he has trouble playing more than 120 games, this has turned out to be one of the better picks in this draft.
Grade: A-
Re-draft: Andrew Redman (49)

18. Buffalo Bisons
Pick: Johnny Saunders - 2B/LF
Age: 28
Stats: 107 HR / 314 RBI / .266/.320/.483
Awards: None
Notes:  In Season 16, Saunders was just 1 homerun shy of his third straight 30-homerun season, and just 8 RBIs short of his third straight 100-RBI season.  In addition to Saunders’ strong bat, he has been exceptional defensively in LF.
Grade: A-
Re-draft: Chet Corey (38)

19. Anaheim Owlz
Pick: Trent Park - SS
Age: 26
Stats: 36 HR / .270/.338/.393
Awards: Gold Glove
Notes:  Park has flashed brilliance defensively at 2B, winning a Gold Glove in Season 15.  Although lacking power, Park has gotten on base at an acceptable, but mediocre, rate.  Combined with his glove, however, Park has a long-term Major League future.
Grade: B
Re-draft: Andre Wood (25)

20. New York Neophyte
Pick: Moose Gonzales - SS
Age: 26
Stats: 69 HR / 261 RBI / .256/.311/.399
Awards: Gold Glove
Notes:  Gonzales has turned out to be the best pure SS in the draft.  He won a Gold Glove in Season 14 behind his exceptional arm.  He is also competent with the bat, and has four straight seasons over 10 HR and 50 RBI.
Grade: B
Re-draft: Hugh Dransfeldt (56)

21. Madison Marauders
Pick: Vladimir Rosario - SP
Age: 25
Stats: 17-25 / 5.68 ERA / 1.57 WHIP
Awards: None
Notes:  Rosario has all the tools to be a successful SP but hasn't put it together yet.  At only 25, Rosario has time to turn it around, but a recent demotion may mean a more difficult path.
Grade: C+
Re-draft: Vladimir Rosario (21)

22. Madison Marauders
Pick: Jonathan Lawton - RP
Age: 25
Stats: 26 SV / 6.10 ERA / 1.64 WHIP
Awards: None
Notes:  Similar to Rosario, Lawton has the tools to be successful, but has been nothing but awful to this point.  Unlike Rosario, Lawton remains in the Majors and has the opportunity to turn it around at age 25.
Grade: C
Re-draft: Ariel Guerrero (64)

23. Seattle Spirits
Pick: Dean Murray - CF
Unsigned
Grade: F
Re-draft: Dustin Grieve (91)

24. Minnesota Bald Eagles
Pick: Buddy Palmer - 2B
Age: 29
Stats: 44 SB / .264/.325/.370
Awards: None
Notes:  In just over one season, Palmer has proven that he cannot play 2B at the ML level.  As a COF, his mediocre bat simply won’t play, and Palmer will have almost no value.
Grade: D+
Re-draft: Louie Murphy (35)

25. Boston Massacre
Pick: Andre Wood - SP
Age: 26
Stats: 26-32 / 5.11 ERA / 1.53 WHIP
Awards: None
Notes:  The 26-year old Wood had two sub-5.00 ERA seasons prior to a setback in Season 16.  Although not as talented as Vladimir Rosario, Wood has performed better.  There is no reason to believe that he can’t be a 4/5 starter for the next 6-7 seasons.
Grade: B
Re-draft: Juan Sanchez (55)

26. New York Neophyte
Pick: Pedro Barrios - RP
Age: 27
Stats: 5.18 ERA / 1.48 WHIP
Awards: None
Notes:  Barrios has struggled, posting a 5.00+ ERA as a reliever in 3 seasons.  Used more sparingly in Season 16, Barrios posted a 3.93 ERA in 68+ IP.  If he can maintain that production, even in a reduced role, Barrios can provide nice value out of the bullpen.
Grade: C+
Re-draft: Parker Johnston (40)

27. Florida Shark Waves
Pick: Reed Rigby - SS/3B
Age: 25
Stats: 20 HR / 85 SB / .231/.284/.301
Awards: None
Notes:  Rigby is an above average defender with no bat.  May be able to stay in the bigs as a backup and vs LHP platoon player, but has little value otherwise.
Grade: D+
Re-draft: Reid Aldridge (14)

28. Los Angeles Penguins
Pick: Albert Rodriguez - CF
Age: 27
Stats: 29 HR / 127 RBI / .263/.318/.390
Awards: World Series
Notes:  Rodriguez is an above average CF defender who, in his first season as a full-time starter, hit 18 HRs with 73 RBIs.  Rodriguez likely won’t consistently hit 20 HRs, but a consistent .725-.750 OPS is possible.
Grade: B
Re-draft: Junior Armas (34)

29. New York Neophyte
Pick: Dante Iwamura - CF/LF
Age: 26
Stats: 67 HR / 223 RBI / .259/.315/.456
Awards: Gold Glove (LF), Silver Slugger (CF)
Notes:  Despite struggling in Season 16, Iwamura may be the steal of the draft.  Iwamura can easily play above average CF, although his bat plays in LF as well.  If he remains in CF, Iwamura should be a consistent top-10 overall CFer.
Grade: A-
Re-draft: Thomas O’Connor (196)

30. Iowa City The Duda Bites
Pick: Philip Wells - SP
Age: 29
Stats: 12-28 / 5.09 ERA / 1.54 WHIP
Awards: None
Notes:  In three ML seasons, Wells has been nothing more than a AAAA spot starter.  Wells struggles against RHs and will likely never be a full-time starter because of it.
Grade: C
Re-draft: Jonathan Lawton (22)

31. Trenton Reds
Pick: Willard Lo Duca - SP
Age: 27
Stats: 21-31 / 5.50 ERA / 1.52 WHIP
Awards: None
Notes:  Lo Duca has spent time as both a RP and starter.  He has shown potential as a 5th starter, and has elite velocity and good control to go along with below average stuff.  If he stays healthy, Lo Duca should find a career in the Majors.
Grade: C+
Re-draft: Alex Beamon (12)

32. Florida Shark Waves
Pick: Chris Delcarmen - CF
Unsigned
Grade: F
Re-draft: Duffy Waters (130)


Best player: Ned Meyers (1)
Best value in the first round: Kennie Fister (17)
Best non-first round pick: Andrew Redman (49)






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