topoftheworl's Future Rankings

Future rankings

Since I am in the middle of a rebuild I decided to see how I am coming along.  I took every player at every level and scored all of them 25 or under.  This is a flawed system, of course, because my advanced scouting sucks.  However, in theory my advanced scouting should be inaccurate in a way that does not bias any one player or team.  I broke up prospects into 5 tiers.  Tire one are the truly elite and tier 5 probably should never make the majors.  Teams got the most points for a Tier 1 players and a tiny amount for a tier 4 prospect (with nothing for tier 5).  I did not make a distinction between ML and minors since we all run our teams differently.  The total points don't mean anything except giving me a final way to rank teams.

Rank	Team	Total Points
1	San Francisco	18
1	Austin	18
1	Buffalo	18
4	Colorado Springs	17.5
4	New York	17.5
6	Salt Lake City	17
7	San Juan	16.5
8	Florida	14.5
9	Jacksonville	12
9	Las Vegas	12
11	Atlanta	11
12	Salem	10.5
12	Cincinnati	10.5
12	Seattle	10.5
15	Trenton	10
16	Arizona	9.5
17	Charlotte	9
18	Albuquerque	8
18	Durham	8
20	Syracuse	7.5
21	Texas	6.5
22	Ottawa	6
22	Philadelphia	6
24	Houston	5.5
24	St. Louis	5.5
26	Boston	3.5
26	Los Angeles	3.5
28	Louisville	3
28	Pawtucket	3
28	Tampa Bay	3
31	Pittsburgh	2
32	Dover	1.5

Thoughts: No tears for Dover since they have won back-to-back. SF and Buffalo are projected to make the playoffs. Atlanta is 11th and the 2nd best team overall in my projections.

topoftheworl's Season 24 Preview

I had a little extra time this last week (Barrow, AK, my home, shuts down for a local holiday on the 2nd so we all had a 5 day weekend) and the wife and kids are out of town.  Rather than do something useful I broke out an old spreadsheet I had and put Cobbfather's 32 teams into it.  I used to do the blog over in Long Haul and I used it then.  I asked A-log if I could share my results and the fruit of my efforts is below.  I'll start by giving the caveat that it is really hard to quantify defense into a formula and so while I try, its probably undervalued in my final product.

Projected AL records:

AL North	W	Ḷ	GB
Pawtucket	90	72	-
St. Louis	86	76	4
Cincinnati	79	83	11
New York	69	93	22
AL East	W	Ḷ	GB
Atlanta	111	51	-
Boston	100	62	11
Trenton	81	81	30
Durham	71	91	39
AL South	W	Ḷ	GB
San Juan	92	70	-
Charlotte	85	77	7
Louisville	76	86	16
Tampa Bay	75	87	17
AL West	W	Ḷ	GB
San Francisco	76	86	-
Colorado Springs	73	89	3
Albuquerque	66	96	9
Salem	65	97	10

My thoughts:  If this holds I will owe ploppie a season since I promised 76 wins.  I ran Tampa Bay twice because I didn't believe how poorly they did.   San Francisco is a team to watch.  Not only are they the class of the West now, but they are only getting better (more on that later).  Atlanta has the best offense and the 2nd best pitching.  Boston has the best pitching and the 2nd best hitting.  One of them will not win their division ;)  Trenton projects to have a run differential of 0.  I've never had that happen before.

Projected NL records:

NL North	W	Ḷ	GB
Ottawa	87	75	-
Pittsburgh	83	79	4
Syracuse	78	84	8
Seattle	72	90	15
NL East	W	Ḷ	GB
Dover	95	67	-
Buffalo	86	76	9
Florida	77	85	18
Philadelphia	71	91	24
NL South	W	Ḷ	GB
Houston	107	55	-
Jacksonville	81	81	26
Austin	73	89	34
Texas	60	102	47
NL West	W	Ḷ	GB
Arizona	91	71	-
Los Angeles	80	82	11
Salt Lake City	79	83	12
Las Vegas	78	84	13

My thoughts:  Houston is really, really good.  Their pitching staff is projected to be 20 runs better than LA's and 60 runs better than anyone else.  In addition they have the 2nd best offense.  Their run differential is projected to be bigger than Dover's and Arizona's combined.  Texas is real trouble on offense.  Buffalo is the San Francisco of the NL, but better.  They should make the playoffs this season and they are only getting better.

Season 24 Hall of Fame Ballot

The Hall of Fame voting has begun for Season 24, and this season there's a slew of candidates that deserve consideration.  Given the large pool of worthy candidates, the Gazette will post their ballot, in case you're interested on who we would vote for this season.  Please everyone vote, as there are many deserving candidates!  Here are our choices for this year's Hall of Fame Class.

Al Samuel none none Age: 39 B/T: L/R Born: San Cristobal, DO Position(s): C View Hardball Dynasty Profile

1. Al Samuel 
MVP Winner
9 Time All-Star
4 Time Silver Slugger
3 World Series Rings
1 Gold Glove
.334 Career Batting Average (1st All-Time)

Comments: Samuel's accomplishments are very impressive and then you get to the fact that he is the all-time career batting average leader in Cobbfather history, and it becomes a no-brainer that he should be in the Hall.  It's quite surprising that he only got 10 votes last season.

Chris Pendleton none none Age: 40 B/T: R/R Born: Chula Vista, CA Position(s): P (P) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

2. Chris Pendleton
3 Time Cy Young Award Winner
8 Time All-Star
2 World Series Rings
2.86 Career ERA
220 Career Wins
2,876 Career Strikeouts

Comments: Pendleton's career stat line is even more impressive when you consider he had pretty weak stamina.  To win 3 Cy Young Awards, something only 3 other players in world history have accomplished, with that limitation, we feel he is Hall of Fame worth.

Trey Padgett none none Age: 41 B/T: R/R Born: Loudonville, OH Position(s): 2B View Hardball Dynasty Profile

3. Trey Padgett
11 Time All-Star
7 Time Silver Slugger
4 World Series Rings
558 Career Home Runs
2,729 Career Hits

Comments: Padgett's most impressive qualification is that he is an 11 time All-Star.  Double digit All-Star appearances is something only 4 other players is world history have accomplished.  His stat line is very impressive as well, and he deserves to be in.  Him only getting 6 votes last season is pretty shocking.

Dennis Gulan none none Age: 38 B/T: R/R Born: Anamosa, IA Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

4. Dennis Gulan 
11 Time All-Star
7 Time Silver Slugger
1 Gold Glove
1 World Series Ring
.301 Career Batting Average
.510 Career Slugging Percentage
663 Stolen Bases (5th All-Time)

Comments: Gulan is another player who made it to 11 All-Star games, a feat that is probably Hall of Fame worth in itself, and his 7 Silver Slugger Awards are nothing to scoff at either.  He is 5th all-time in stolen bases while putting up a solid average and good power stats.

Edgar Cortez none none Age: 40 B/T: L/L Born: Pueblo Viejo, DO Position(s): P (SP4) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

5. Edgar Cortez
Cy Young Award Winner
6 Time All-Star
1 World Series Rings
255 Career Wins (3rd All-Time)
3,352 Career Strikeouts (3rd All-Time)

Comments: Cortez having the 3rd most Wins and 3rd most Strikeouts in Cobbfather history while putting up a fairly good ERA make him Hall of Fame worthy.  His numbers are almost identical to  Vasco Serra, but we give the nod to Cortez, as he's been on the ballot one season longer.  Under normal circumstances, both would be easy selections, but this is a crowded class.

That's our selections, please remember to vote so we can get some of these guys in!

Season 24 Offseason Free Agency Recap

Season 24 is under way, and we'll start the blog coverage with a recap of free agency!  This offseason's free agency period was a great if you were looking for a good starting pitcher, not so much if you needed an impact bat.  What made the free agency period interesting was that many of the top players available were older, making teams weigh how much to give these stars who may soon be entering their decline phase.  There were some interesting signings for sure, so let's recap those selected as the top 10 of this year's free agent class!

1. Pascual Hernandez, 30, LF
Previous Team: Buffalo
Signed with Houston - 5 years, $107.1 million

Houston made another big splash this offseason in signing another huge bat to their lineup and our top rated free agent.  Hernandez has a monster bat with elite power as well as contact.  In a free agency class with few strong bats, this was the guy to land, and he'll be a huge asset to an already solid Houston lineup.  
2. Tony Lopez, 34, SP
Previous Team: Los Angeles
Re-signed with Los Angeles - 5 years, $110 million

Our #2 free agent of this offseason didn't end up going anywhere, as he re-upped with Los Angeles with a max contract.  He's had a great deal of success in Los Angeles, with a microscopic 2.69 ERA that ranks 2nd in Cobbfather world history.  Retaining Lopez was key for LA, in maintaining one of the best pitching staffs in the world. 

3. Dioner Ontiveros, 32, SP
Previous Team: Charlotte
Signed with Las Vegas - 5 years, $97 million

Onitveros has elite ratings pretty much across the board with great control, velocity, effectiveness vs. RH, and a very good arsenal of pitches.  The main knock on Ontiveros is his durability, which may limit his innings to the 160-180 range.  Still, those will be high quality innings, and Las Vegas definitely improved their staff with this signing.

4. Groucho Leiter, 28, SP
Previous Team: Austin
Signed with Florida - 5 years, $49 million

Leiter is the youngest player on the list, and that is a major asset, as there won't be concerns about age related decline with him towards the end of the contract.  His ratings aren't as elite as some of the other hurlers on the list, but he still has plus control, velocity and a nice arsenal of pitches.  His splits are just ok, but given his age and the fact he went for a lot less than the other top SP's makes this a good signing. 

5. Mendy Kondou, 35, 3B/RF
Previous Team: Dover
Signed with Boston - 4 years, $32 million

At age 35, Mendy can still hit, with an elite batting eye and plus contact, he should be a valuable asset to the Boston lineup this season.  The age, of course, is the biggest drawback to the 9-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner, as it remains to be seen how progressive his decline will be after this season.  Still, for Boston who is in win-now mode, it was probably worth the risk in a free agent class with a limited number of impact bats. 

6. Clinton McNeil, 30, SP
Previous Team: Ottawa
Signed with Durham - 5 years, $33.8 million

McNeil is one of the younger hurlers on the list with plus durability, control, splits and has pretty nice pitches.  His stamina is going to limit the number of innings he can go, probably to around 160-175.  He is still a very good pitcher however, and was obtained at a nice price, so you can't fault Durham for going after him, as he will be an upgrade to their staff. 

7. Victor Almanzar, 36, SP
Previous Team: Boston
Signed with San Francisco - 4 years, $77.5 million

Almanzar is still a top of the line starter with plus ratings across the board, and he went to a team in desperate need of pitching.  He should greatly help the San Francisco rotation this season, and should have at least a couple of more good seasons left, despite his age.  He will surely be missed in Boston!

8. Emmanuel Cora, 35, SP
Previous Team: Pawtucket
Signed with San Juan - 2 years, $12 million

Cora is still a solid, dependable arm at age 35, with nice ratings across the board.  He will definitely be an asset to San Juan at a good price.  It appears in this very deep class of starting pitchers, he may have been overlooked for some of the bigger names.  Definitely a nice signing for San Juan!

9. Carlos Pena, 37, RP
Previous Team: Houston
Signed with Durham - 2 years, $16.5 million

Pena comes in as the top reliever on our board in this free agent class, as he still has outstanding pitches, great control and velocity and nice splits, even at age 37.   A 2-year deal seems right for him, as he should be able to perform highly for that length of time without significant decline.  It's a nice add for Durham's bullpen, indeed.

10. Alberto Beltre, 39, SP
Previous Team: Durham
Signed with Pawtucket - 4 years $27.5 million

Cobbfather's new all-time strikeout king is still going strong, as evidenced by his ability to land a 4-year deal at age 39.  He still has good control and pitches and an elite RH split.  He hasn't regressed all that much, which shows some pitchers can maintain high quality longer than you might think.  It will be interesting to see how long the strikeout king keeps churning.

That concludes our recap of a very interesting offseason free agency period, congrats to all that landed key free agents!