Wednesday, May 24, 2023

And the S55 award goes to...

Jack Torrance - Contributing Reporter



And the Award goes to...

Continuing off last year's award season. You can generally find the runs, HRs, RBIs, and AVG listed on the website when voting but we'll cover a few of the player's advanced stats; including their Cash points (fantasy points - offense focused), weighted SBs (when relevant, attempted 15 or more), extra base hits, a player's wOBA (weighted on-base average), rc27 (runs created per 27 outs), and even a player's wRAA (weighed runs above average). All in the effort to see how each individual effected the games they played. Players in bold is our predicted winner.

MVP

We'll start off with the MVP race, listed by Skynet's favorites (ie. listed in order from website)

  • AL - Kyle Crain (C/DH) missed out on last year's award due to an injury but he's back with a vengeance by winning the HR Derby, All-Star Game MVP, and AL Silver Slugger.  With the playoffs under way he has potential to add a World Series Ring on top of all that. What a year for Crain. As usual, he's joined by teammate Matty Moss (2B) on the ballot. Should be interesting to see each of their careers when it comes to HoF voting after their retirement. He is also joined by teammate TJ Christenson (LF). The next usual name on the list is Wei-Yin Wan (1B) of the Huntington Tropics. Until one of them leaves the AL, I'd expect to see these two guys battle it out year after year for the prized award. He's an underdog by name but don't count out the Houston Space Cowboys own, (1B/LF) Carlos Soto. He continues to have dominant season after dominate season.  
    • Kyle Crain (C) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 658
      • xBH - 85
      • wRAA - 61.4
      • wOBA - .439
      • RC27 - 8.59
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: These numbers would be great for a 1B, but Crain was also managing the pitching staff behind the plate. He's back to his stellar seasons. Nearly 60 HR and 172 RBI with a .300+ average. He is the core the Expos lineup and as long as he continues to produce, the team will be winning. 
    • Wei-Yin Wan (1B)
      • Cash points - 619
      • xBH - 73
      • wRAA - 63.4
      • wOBA - .434
      • RC27 - 8.34
      • wSB - 0 (caught more times than successful)
        • Case for: He has Crain beat in average, but falls just below in HR, RBI, and other advanced stats. Imagine having a lineup with Crain at C and WYW at 1B; oh wait that's the AL All-Star lineup. 
    • Carlos Soto (1B/2B/LF)
      • Cash points - 544
      • xBH - 62
      • wRAA - 35.8
      • wOBA - .393
      • RC27 - 7.64
      • wSB - 5
        • Case for: A plus defender at 1B, and secured a 30+ HR / 30+ SB season; which is a rare accomplishment in Cobbfather. One of only 2 players this season. 
    • Matty Moss (2B)
      • Cash points - 534
      • xBH - 56
      • wRAA - 22.5
      • wOBA - .365
      • RC27 - 7.34
      • wSB - 13
        • Case for: This guy likely breaks the all-time record for stolen bases before he retires and he routinely scores 120+ a season, this year it was 141 with 83 stolen bases. Moss is constantly on the MVP ballot but always overlooked by the chicks who did the long balls. 
    • TJ Christenson (LF)
      • Cash points - 467
      • xBH - 60
      • wRAA - 14.4
      • wOBA - .353
      • RC27 - 6.24
      • wSB - 3
        • Case for: Adds value across the board, but he's below all those mentioned above. Even on a career worst season, he's still on the MVP ballot, that's gotta say something to what he adds to the team. 
  • NL - This should be short, Shea Crowe signed a max deal this past off-season and he should still be considered unpaid this season with what he produced. Wed' have to compare, but it's likely a top 10 season of all time. He's joined by the Smelly Douglas Laxton (RF) and Keith Halter (1B). And former Smelly and now Vancouver Canuck James Kondou (1B), who might I add is the second time in his career he's been on the MVP ballot; perhaps a slightly underrated player in this writer's opinion. And finally a usual suspect, Omar Gonzales (1B) with Tokyo. 
    • Shea Crowe (2B) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 767
      • xBH - 118
      • wRAA - 90.6
      • wOBA - .476
      • RC27 - 10.45
      • wSB - -1
        • Case for: The real question is, will he be an unanimous selection? Just misses the top 5 all-time in RC27 due to a power outtage to end the season. He's done wonders since being acquired by Chicago back in S50.
    • Douglas Laxton (RF)
      • Cash points - 654.5
      • xBH - 77
      • wRAA - 71.8
      • wOBA - .446
      • RC27 - 9.33
      • wSB - -2
        • Case for: Another strong season for Laxton that saw him fall 1 hit short of 200. Not only does he bring 40 HR power, but he'll be top 3 in walks. 
    • Keith Halter (1B)
      • Cash points - 552.5
      • xBH - 77
      • wRAA - 47.2
      • wOBA - .412
      • RC27 - 8.34
      • wSB - 2
        • Case for: Hard getting through the top of the NO Smell lineup, it seems there's always 2-3 of those guys on this list. If one has a mediocre season another is there to fill the gap. Halter while a great season, doesn't measure up to Laxton or even Crowe's. 
    • James Kondou (1B)
      • Cash points - 528.5
      • xBH - 76
      • wRAA - 39.4
      • wOBA - .404
      • RC27 - 8.2
      • wSB - 4
        • Case for: Kondou started on NO Smell but was traded for pennies, and what a trade this turned out for Vancouver. The Canadian voters will likely vote for him, but shouldn't expect anything else. As they say in their language....sorry!
    • Omar Gonzales (1B) 
      • Cash points - 726
      • xBH - 91
      • wRAA - 79.2
      • wOBA - .452
      • RC27 - 9.46
      • wSB - 1
        • Case for: Likely the 2nd best NL player this season for the lowly Tokyo Nomo. Will be interesting to see what he does next year. 

Cy Young

Next we have the Cy Young award. This time we'll be looking at a few advanced stats such as ERA+, FIP, Weighted Cash points to neutralize park factors. In the future, if we can figure out why our WAR numbers are so off, we'll include those as well. But for now we'll include K/BB and Quality Starts or Inherited Runners Scored as well. A reminder on ERA+, the average is 100 and anything above 100 indicates the pitcher performed better than average while below performed worse than average. Score of 150 would be 50% better than average. The FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: K, BB, HBP, and HR. 
  • AL - So you get to pick between an Atlanta and Houston pitcher, which is no surprise given how quickly they separated themselves from the pack. 
    • JC Wall
      • ERA+ - 146
      • FIP - 3.70
      • Cash - 502
      • K/BB - 3.13
      • QS - 72%
        • Case for: The old Wall is back and performing like never before, he was in peak performance and nearly had the Cy locked up until a small bump at the end of the season. 
    • Damaso Ethier - Projected Winner
      • ERA+ - 182
      • FIP - 2.95
      • Cash - 505
      • K/BB - 2.75
      • QS% - 82%
        • Case for: This is the guy you'd want on the mound this season if it was down to one game.  Lowest ERA of the AL, only Wall had more wins in the AL, and he was #6 in K in the AL. 
    • Mitch Dillard
      • ERA+ - 172
      • FIP - 3.07
      • Cash - 482.5
      • K/BB - 3.13
      • QS% - 47%
        • Case for: By the advanced numbers he had a better season than Wall, but he's gotta get that quality start percent up so he's not so taxing on the bullpen. 
    • Alan Street
      • ERA+ - 116
      • FIP - 3.42
      • Cash - 531
      • K/BB - 3.40
      • QS% - 62%
        • Case for: He produced better than the numbers say he did, but when you pitch with Atlanta's bats on side, it's easy to give up a few extra runs. 
    • Darby Hatcher
      • ERA+ - 99
      • FIP - 4.55
      • Cash - 300
      • K/BB - 2.58
      • SV% - 85%
        • Case for: Closers are a different breed and not easily compared with the starters. His ERA+ and FIP say he was league average or worse, but I attribute that to small sample size. Is he my go to closer, probably not; but I'd be MORE than happy to have him as one. 
  • NL - Some of the usual suspects here as well. Drew, White, Combs, Bonilla all familiar faces on the Cy Young ballot. But this year Vancouver adds Cy Hawkins. Bonilla while familiar is on the Chicago squad instead of New Orleans this year and proved to be a great signing this off-season. Can Nigel White take home another NL Cy Young? 
    • Alton Drew
      • ERA+ - 174
      • FIP - 3.05
      • Cash - 618
      • K/BB - 2.55
      • QS% - 76%
        • Case for: He's the easy choice if you just look at the surface, and that's fine if you do. His 618 Cash points are the highest of any pitcher, but that's mostly effected by how many strike outs he gets in a season. 
    • Nigel White - Predicted Winner
      • ERA+ - 237
      • FIP - 2.51
      • Cash - 490
      • K/BB - 4.38
      • QS% - 69%
        • Case for: White continues to produce for Hartford year after year and this one was no different. Given how much better he was than league average and boosts a higher than normal K/BB; we like him a lot for the award. When he puts up these kind of advanced stats it's just hard to compare anyone else. 
    • Louis Combs
      • ERA+ - 155
      • FIP - 3.60
      • Cash - 368
      • K/BB - 3.17
      • QS% - 63%
        • Case for: Great season for Combs as he continues to win 15+ games with a sub 3.00 ERA. He seems to like playing in New Orleans but sadly still not up to par with White. 
    • Rico Bonilla
      • ERA+ - 131
      • FIP - 3.74
      • Cash - 496
      • K/BB - 2.35
      • QS% - 66%
        • Case for: Showing age is just a number, Bonilla put up his best numbers since S52's Cy Young award winning season. 
    • Cy Hawkins
      • ERA+ - 116
      • FIP - 3.99
      • Cash - 413
      • K/BB - 3.16
      • QS% - 59%
        • Case for: He falls into the Alan Street category, his numbers were better than his advance stats. Though he did help lead the Canucks to a division title and all time franchise team win record. 

Rookie of the Year

And you can't forget our about Rookies. This one gets a little trickier as the list often mixes pitchers with hitters. But we'll do the best we can. 
  • AL - Lots of fun names this year, including the AL Fireman of the Year Darby Hatcher. Along with fellow reliever Whit Benoit from Helena. The well traveled Robin Motte joints the list with two bats, 3B Woodie Yarnall and 1B Del 'Ellen' Allen.
    • Alexander Sandberg (1B)
      • Cash points - 429
      • xBH - 65
      • wRAA - 23
      • wOBA - .375
      • RC27 - 6.26
      • wSB - 1
        • Case for: Heck of a season for the young 23 yr old. 28 doubles, 30 HR, 15 SB on a .277 average. Kept the Ks down under 100 though he didn't walk often. 
    • Louie Weiss (1B) - Projected Winner
      • Cash points - 405.5
      • xBH - 66
      • wRAA - 32.3
      • wOBA - .398
      • RC27 - 6.84
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: Weiss and Wan should be an interesting combo if Huntington can put things together. At just 21 I expect to see more progress from the young 1B. His rookie season came in at 35 HR, a .291 AVG with nearly 30 doubles. 
    • Edgmer Romero (RP) 
      • ERA+ - 143
      • FIP - 4.43
      • Cash - 205
      • K/BB - 2.13
      • IRS% - 11% (2 of 18)
        • Case for: Solid bullpen piece that closed out quite a few of Nasvhille's games. Didn't K a ton but doesn't seem to walk them either. With a solid defense behind him, he could be even better!
    • Wilking Alvarez (SP)
      • ERA+ - 123
      • FIP - 3.37
      • Cash - 382
      • K/BB - 3.92
      • QS% - 53%
        • Case for: After staring 6 games last year, he went a full season this year and kept the ERA under 4. A solid K/BB rate and nice advanced numbers across the board. As the Boston team improves, I expect Alvarez's numbers to improve as well. 
    • Mickey Barmes (1B)
      • Cash points - 486
      • xBH - 53
      • wRAA - 29.5
      • wOBA - .377
      • RC27 - 5.83
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: Another 21 year old who still has room to improve...even on the 40 HR he hit this year. I would like to see the batting average come up but a fantastic season none-the-less. 
  • NL - Another interesting group that will be fun to watch grow. reliever Nash Washington, Jeff Jones, and a few bats 3B Chili Lawton, LF Ernest Clements, and 1B Jason McGuiness. Interesting enough all but one of those guys are watching the playoffs from home. Jones follows teammate Mike Young in being nominated for the award. While McGuiness hopes to do what his teammate Emilio Molina couldn't do last year and take the trophy home for himself. 
    • Spud Campbell (1B) 
      • Cash points - 414.5
      • xBH - 51
      • wRAA - 28.6
      • wOBA - .390
      • RC27 - 7.1
      • wSB - -1
        • Case for: When traded he was compared to an Omar Gonzales-lite and now that Omar resigned with Tokyo it's a match made in heaven. As promised, he's the lite version of Omar. 
    • Ruben Suarez (SP)
      • ERA+ - 113
      • FIP - 3.57
      • Cash - 325
      • K/BB - 2.19
      • QS% - 63%
        • Case for: For a young Corgis team Suarez has a great season, sub 4 ERA, 32 starts, ERA+ shows he was above average, a FIP near 3.50.
    • TJ Nick (CF) 
      • Cash points - 382
      • xBH - 40
      • wRAA - -10.5
      • wOBA - .308
      • RC27 - 4.6
      • wSB - 7
        • Case for: Plus defender out in Center, has room for improvement at the plate. 
    • Dee Valle (1B) 
      • Cash points - 312
      • xBH - 38
      • wRAA - -18.4
      • wOBA - .292
      • RC27 - 3.3
      • wSB - 3
        • Case for: Might be a bright future but sub .240 average, caught stealing more than he stole, and below 10 HR. Was there a drought on rookies this year, maybe but it's the 22 plus plays at 1B that has him on the list.  
    • Tsubasa Maeda (LF) 
      • Cash points - 271
      • xBH - 39
      • wRAA - -25.3
      • wOBA - .281
      • RC27 - 3.4
      • wSB - 2
        • Case for: Another Corgis on teh list, and this one offers speed but the rest of his game needs to improve. 

Cash Points

The top 20 hitters players under the Cash system are:
  1. 767 - Shea Crowe (Chi)
  2. 726 - Omar Gonzales (Tok)
  3. 658 - Kyle Crain (Atl)
  4. 655 - Douglas Laxton (NO)
  5. 619 - Wei-Yin Wan (Hun)
  6. 553 - Keith Halter (CLB/NO)
  7. 544 - Carlos Soto (Hou)
  8. 540 - Gregorio Cordero (NO)
  9. 534 - Matty Moss (Atl)
  10. 529 - Yoervis Colome (NY)
  11. 529 - James Kondou (Van)
  12. 527 - Tomas Urias (Van)
  13. 525 - Javier Quevedo (NO)
  14. 521 - Dilson Rojas (Sal)
  15. 513 - Juancito Martin (NO)
  16. 513 - Doug Carpenter (SJ)
  17. 500 - Al Cervantes (Phi)
  18. 490 - Daniel Federowicz (Was)
  19. 488 - Josh Hunt (NO)
  20. 467 - Bennie Serra (Hou)
And the bottom 10 hitters with at least 300 ABs are. It's generally filled with SSs who often but not always provide solid defense to make up for it. Let's see who we've got this year. One thing to note, no Garabez Belliard now that Hartford replaced him. And what a smart move, he was a killer of runs. 
  1. 58 - Rudy Mustelier (CSP - C)
    1. -22.3 wRAA
  2. 79 - Yusmeiro Del Rosario (Phil - SS) 
    1. -23.9  wRAA
  3. 81 - Deven Aceves (Hel - SS)
    1. -18  wRAA
  4. 84 - Jonas Rzepczynski (MC - SS)
    1. -23.5  wRAA
  5. 86 - Tern Lee (Tac - C)
    1. -21.2  wRAA
The top 20 pitchers under the cash system are:
  1. 618 - Alton Drew (Chi)
  2. 531 - Alan Street (Atl)
  3. 505 - Damaso Ethier (Atl)
  4. 505 - Joaquin Owen (Phi)
  5. 502 - JC Wall (Atl)
  6. 496 - Rico Bonillla (Chi)
  7. 490 - Nigel White (Har)
  8. 483 - Mitch Dillard (Hou)
  9. 470 - Brian Fukudome (Pit)
  10. 462 - Tony Lim (CSP)
  11. 459 - Koyie Ward (CSP)
  12. 457 - Roger Simon (Hun)
  13. 456 - Midre Benavente (OKC)
  14. 455 - Pedro Puello (OKC)
  15. 456 - Jesse Fields (OKC)
  16. 432 - Rougned Pulido (Pit)
  17. 431 - Frank Kim (Min)
  18. 431 - Santo Estrella (OKC)
  19. 428 - Quilvio Infante (Atl)
  20. 428 - Brett Humphries (Hun)