Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Let's Make a Deal - S55

Jack Torrance - contributing reporter


20 trades this season. Hindsight is 20/20, while it will be a few seasons before we know how well these deals worked out for both teams, let's go ahead and take a look back at a few deals that were made this season, and there were many of them this year - 33 in fact!

All grades are just for this season alone, with the understanding that looking back in 4-5 seasons that grades could drastically change. 

Vancouver (101-61) traded prospect Alex Lopez (SP)  to New Orleans (103-59) for James Kondou (1B). The first trade of the season is between two teams who end up winning 100+ games, let's get going! This move was likely more about shedding the contract of Kondou for New Orleans who didn't have a starting spot for him than actually acquiring talent back; and it shows. Lopez was jettisoned to AAA where he's pitched in long relief for just under 100 innings and a 3.25 ERA. Will he see ML time next season? Vancouver on the other hand, received a guy who appeared in the chatter for the MVP voting and was able to get back to his old form before New Orleans acquired Keith Halter last season. .314 average, 28 hr, 36 sb, 120 r, 93 rbi. Vancouver ended up extending Kondou on a 2/$10.8M. 
Vancouver - A+. New Orleans - C-

Salt Lake City (79-83) in their first of three deals between these two teams, SLC sends away two players he acquired last season in Brandon Grim (SS) and Ron McDowell (2B) to Nashville (76-86) for Paco Garces (RF). SLC also ended up winning the division nobody wanted to win, the AL West. Garces is about as average as it comes in RF, but gave nearly career lows across the board. wRAA of 1.5 shows just how average he is. Entering Arb3 I believe, we'll see if he stays long term in the great SLC. Nashville's new up the middle infield will be much cheaper than the $6M player they gave up. Last season Grim was top 5 in errors, but much better this season though he split some time at 2B and CF, but that batting average is still below .225 but he's stealing more bases. McDowell split time between 2B and LF but offered little at the plate with a .643 OPS. Combined they have a wRAA of -36. For their second deal, had Nashville (76-86) sending Santiago Cora (SP)  to Salt Lake City (79-83) for Remond Osoria (Pos), Pepper Hill (Pos), and Frank Sweeney (Pos). Cora had the worst season in his career and barely won above .500; but hey considering SLC won the division by 2 games, maybe Cora was the reason for that. He definitely ate up a lot of innings, as he logs 200+ for the 9th straight season. Sweeney was dealt after the deadline to Houston as part of a package deal. Hill hit well in AAA, but at age 22 h's looking like an AAAA player. Osoria came out of the pen, saving 8 of 10 games but that doesn't look as great when you know he had a 1.81 WHIP and 6.39 ERA this season. I'd expect better things out of him next season if he can find the right bullpen coach to help him along. In their third deal, Salt Lake City (79-83) packs up prospect Randolph Jacobs (CF) to Nashville (76-86) for Mikey Abbott (RP) and 2/3rds of his salary. Another AAAA acquisition for Nashville, this one a minor league CF, though he didn't give up a ton in a SuB who has one more  year of Arb left. Abbott did pitch pretty well when he finally saw time late in games, and I guess Nashville shed the contract and got something in return rather than just letting him walk. Chavez won't likely turn into much, he's just a late add-on. And in their fourth and final deal together of the season, Salt Lake City (79-83) continue to make moves, sending $3M + Cliff Calderon (C) + S54 $1M IFA prospect Rougned Chavez (SS) to the Nashville (76-86) for David Andrus (C). prospect Player (Pos). This one gets interesting as it finally involves some real talent. Interesting enough as it was pointed about by the masses, Andrus and Calderon are very similar with the except being where they are in their contracts. Calderon is a FA after this season and Andrus has plenty of years of control left.
Salt Lake City - B. Nashville - C-

Oklahoma City (95-67) receives Pedro Alberro (RF), sending prospect Rich Rendon (CF) to Helena (72-90).. Alberro was immediately extended on a 4 year deal at $4.8M per. A late injury has really zapped Alberro ability to make contact but we are sure the doctors in OKC will take care of him nicely. The Rendon side of the deal looks down right bad. Acquired by trade and not even a week later he gets claimed in the Rule 5. After spending some time in Nashville he was offered back to Helena, who declined as he remains in Nashville. Did Helena owe someone in OKC a debt, no clue but at least Helena shed the Arb3 contract. In this scenario he hands over a present to OKC instead of allowing Alberro to hit the free agent market. 
OKC - B. Helena - F

Houston (113-49) dealt prospect Johnnie Felsen (SP)  to Buffalo (75-87) for (Peter) Kang the Conqueror (C). Felson was looking good and made early season strides until he hit the injury bug with a labrum tear. We'll see how well he recovers and if this deal ends up panning out for the Buffalofaithful. Kang started at catcher for 123 games, leading his staff to a 3.44 ERA. His wRAA has him slightly negative with a below market OPS+, but he handled the pitching staff well. In a second deal later, Houston (113-49) traded Roy Street (RP), and prospects Louie Tapies (SS), and Earl Hunt (RP)  to Buffalo (75-87) for $5M + Bernie Mendez (RF). Buffalo covers most of Merndez's contract by shipping in $5M after playing only 31 games for Buffalo. Mendez was slightly below his norms so perhaps, like Skynet, he's not a fan of Houston. Can't blame him, so much noise in that city...what are they doing banging trash cans or something? Geez, get your trash together City of Houston! Mendez still had a near 7 wRAA and an OPS+ of 108. The only player to see ML time was Roy Street, who saw 57 games out of the pen with a somewhat respectable WHIP and ERA; his ERA+ was league average - 99. Hunt made some quality progress this season but given his current outlook, we are not sure he ever makes the majors; we'll see if those splits every come around. Tapies on the other hand will at least be a defensive backup at the major league level. At 19, he has plenty of time to continue developing. 
Houston - B+. Buffalo - B+

Salt Lake City (79-83) finds a trade partner in the defending World Series champions, sending Morgan Camilli (2B) to New Orleans (103-59) for Felipe Carrera (SS). Another confusing one for the defending world champions, Contracts will be about the same, and Carrera in their first year looks like the better bat and much better defender. He could have rested Quevedo at 2B much better than Camilli did. 
Salt Lake City - B-. New Orleans- C-

Nashville (76-86) making waves like most new owners due, sends $4M + Alex Perez (DH)  to NL powerhouse Hartford (96-66) for Gabe Brown (Pos), Albert Barcelo (Pos), and Edgmer Fernandez (RP). Hartford will be on the hook for the 3/$16.8M remaining on Perez's contract. He saw a slight power drop in slugging percentage and due to the cut in at bats also saw his HR total drop from the 45-55 range to 26 this season; though an OPS+ of 128 and a wRAA of nearly 19, shows he still adds value to any team. An understated downgrade from last year's Omar Gonzalez, but that doesn't seem to have stopped this team overall. Fernandez proved useful out of the pen, pitching nearly 90 innings of 3.84 FIP and a 119 ERA+. Barcelo was demoted to AAA where he spent the entire season with limited ABs, he's a defensive role player if he ever makes the majors. He's the exact type we eventually see in the Rule 5. Brown mostly pitched out of the pen but saw a few starters, but still just managed shy of 100 IP that were mostly all league average at best. A new owner shedding contracts of a player he has no history with and restocking a farm system; pretty straight forward deal. 
Nashville - B-. Hartford - B-

Chicago (111-51) in an attempt to retain the division, traded prospects Jeimer Lee (RP) and Keury Lowell (RP) to Nashville (76-86) for Max Blakenship (RP) + $4.6M which just happens to be his entire salary for S55. Chicago will pick up the remaining year on his current deal. And ERA of 3.93 and a FIP of 5.01 says he got a little lucky this year but that might also be a little bit of small sample size, since he only pitched in 50 innings. Lucky him, he snaked quite a few wins, going 11-2 with 7/11 saves. And ERA+ of 108 shows he was slightly above league average for the time he spent on the mound. Lowell strangely only saw 7 1/3 inning of time over 5 games for the AA Music Notes.....not exactly music to his ears. His growth is about complete but his control and slurve are fantastic! Not much better was Lee who saw 36 innings over 23 games in AA, but a 0.72 WHIP and 1.00 ERA stand out. Another Nashville deal all about shedding contracts.
Chicago - B+. Nashville - C-

Washington DC (64-98) traded former #1 overall pick of S48 Olmedo Nunez (DH) along with 2/3rds of his S55 salary ($4M) to Salt Lake City (79-83) for a trio of prospects S52 #12 pick Benny Ward (Pos), S52 #26 pick Gerry Holt (Pos), and S53 #12 pick Fausto Silverio (P). Holt was promoted to the big league club and hit 31 HR on a .236 average, but had a negative wRAA for the season. Silverio and Ward both saw pretty decent growth for the AAA Nationals. Nunez who enters Arb3 next season will likely be locked up after his 10 wRAA, 111 OPS+ season that saw him hit 40 HR. 
Washington DC - B-. Salt Lake City- A

Colorado Springs (77-85) traded max contract players with Houston (113-49). Arismendy Costilla (SP) going to Houston and Anibal Castillo (CF) coming back. From my Loins haven't finished below 2nd in their division since S38 but have failed to make the playoffs since S51; a rebuild is coming. Costilla has a player option, but now pitching for a contending team you have to think he'll want to renew at $20M for S56. He folds in nicely and can further mentor Houston's two Cy Young candidate (Dillard and Hatcher). Castillo pairs nicely with the power of Grayson Lowry and 3k hit hopeful Jorge Johnson. With plenty of starting pitching options they must have felt they had plenty of options and needed the Castillo's average on the team. This is a good win-win trade for both teams. 
Colorado Springs - A. Houston - A+

Nasvhille (76-86) traded Kevin Duran (RP) and prospect Jo-Jo Fabregas (CF) to Houston (113-49) for a trio of prospects; Daniel Lindor (LF), Clarence Eickhoff (RP), and J.D. Pecina (LF). Fabregas servers a purpose with Castillo having been moved and comes at a cheap cost. Duran wasn't used much, but again served a purpose for a playoff bound team.  Pecina received a promotion from A+ to AAA where he seemed to hit well but there's little to no development left for him. Eickhoff earned the promotion to AA but only pitched in 2 games. He's minor league depth and can be ignored. Lindor hit well in AAA, but we'll see if he can make the big league club next season. 
Nasvhille - TBD. Houston - C+

Houston (113-49) traded Eugune Kroon (P), Max Olivo (DH), and Cliff Buford (RP) to New York (67-95) for $5M + Radhames Machado (RP). Houston picks up a big bullpen arm in his second season of a 5 year contract. Houston will be on the hook for 3/$46.6. His 51 games in Houston provided the team with 3.28 FIP, 143 ERA+ and only let 3 of 11 inherited runners score. For New York this was all abut cutting contracts and rebuilding. Expect them in the top 5 Rule 4 picks the next few seasons and to spend spend spend on IFAs. Kroon lasted 2 games in NY before he was shipped to Atlanta, see trade comments below. Buford is cheap and will likely pitch until he's traded or hits Arb3 as NY's preferred long reliever, whichever comes first. Olivo is the main get for NY, who hit OPS+ 132 and 25 wRAA. Considering the price tag, we'll likely to see him around a bit as well. Though he doesn't offer much on defense and calls a bad game behind the plate. But hey, for a rebuilding team, what's an extra L or two due to your catcher hiking up the pitcher's ERAs a bit? But more than likely, he'll stay as their DH. 
Houston - A+. New York - B

Atlanta (124-38) traded a package of ML players including Zephyr Gross (SP) + Ossie Crow (RP) + Wil Johnston (3B) + $4M to Vancouver (101-61) for prospect Garabez Castillo (SP). It was a combination of moves, but this one was a big part of Vancouver tying a franchise record 101 wins this season and the most since the current owner took over in S41. Atlanta picks up a solid pitching prospect by dealing from depth. How is it, they trade a top pitcher like Gross and still somehow had the best record in the majors? Castillo made some good progress on the season, going up 5 OAV. Gross ended up going 13-1 over 22 starts with a 124 ERA+ and 3.35 FIP. With at least two more seasons in Vancouver, the Canucks will have their #1 starter to lead their rotation. Johnston filled in nicely though was limited to 230 ABs, though the .524 slugging percentage was promising. He'll enter Arb3 next year so we'll see what the commish does next. Crow was interesting, he's another reliever who should be better than the production you get from him. The ERA+ for Vancouver was still 104, so barely above league average. He'll enter Arb3 next season as well, but I assume he'll be kept around for awhile. 
Atlanta - A. Vancouver - A

Salt Lake City (79-83) traded two young players in Adalberto Ontiveros (C) + Jeremy Choice (SP) to New York (67-95) for Jiovanni Poole (SP) + $4M. The salary nearly covers Poole's contract this season but still has another two left. For New York, it's yet another clear sign of a complete rebuild about to take place...as if you didn't already know that. Ontiveros was a bench player, but we'll see if that improves any next season. Choice hits his 4th team since S52, his ERA+ has him about league average though the FIP is MUCH higher than expected. Like the other players NY has acquired, he's cheap. If his Arb2 gets to expensive, he might get cut early. Poole on the other hand, had an ERA+ of 123 and FIP of 3.51 which was near his ERA this season. He may have gone 7-10 for SLC but 15 quality starts in 22 attempts. If they are gunning for the division, he's a decent back of the rotation arm to have. 
Salt Lake City - B. New York - B

Chicago (111-51) traded the amazing arm of Ham Buddie (P) + $1.3M to Colorado Springs (77-85) for prospect Mike Woodson (SP). Woodson was a first round pick just last year but I guess Colorado Springs needs pitching that bad, though they could have done a ton better than our buddie the Hamburglar. Hammie did show promise and had his best season to date after the trade. And by best season, it was still a 1.38 WHIP and 4.25 ERA. Woodson on the other hand, showed good growth for a 23 year old in A+ ball. His limited control and splits will keep him out of the majors and likely out of AAA too. 
Chicago - TBD. Colorado Springs - C-

New York (67-95) continue to sell off and rebuilding, traded Hiram Helms (RP) + $300k  to Vancouver (101-61) for Rule 5 pick Alex Zoltan (RP). Vancouver was looking for a little more bullpen depth as they were nearing the playoffs, though Helms only pitched in 3 games and gave up 4 runs (2 earned) in 3 1/3 innings. Costing them their Rule 5 pick doesn't sting as much, though he did have better numbers than Helms while pitching for Vancouver. Zoltan will pitch in NY until Arb2/3 and gets expensive as they dive head first into their rebuild. Helms is a FA after this season so it wasn't about shedding long term contracts either. 
New York - C+. Vancouver - C+

Atlanta (124-38) makes the last trade of the trade deadline season by sending prospect Phillip Burnett (2B)  to New York (67-95) for Eugene Kroon (P) + $1.1M. Kroon had only been acquired by NY not log ago from Houston and filled in where needed for Atlanta while resting pitchers for the end of the season as they geared up for the playoffs. The addition was more about resting the actual playoff roster than acquiring an important piece at the deadline. And now sadly Kroon gets to watch Houston in the World Series this year. Burnett earned an immediate promotion to the majors but only saw 8 at-bats, hitting one single and striking out three times. On a rebuilding NY team, I wouldn't be surprised to see him stay for another season at the majors. 
Atlanta - B-. New York - C-

Houston (113-49) dealt Red McAdams (1B) and James Halter (2B) to Nashville (76-86) in a post-deadline deal for Frank Sweeney (2B) and Dwight Roth (RF). Both Sweeney and Roth saw decent growth this season and were sent to the only level Houston prospects seem to matter, High A. On the flip side, Nashville sent their prospects to AAA, but neither were able to get an at-bat for the new club. 
Houston - TBD. Nashville - TBD.

That about does it for S55's trades. 

Friday, May 26, 2023

Shoutout!

Minihouston - Editor-in-Chief


A quick shout out to all the other blogs in HBD, hopefully their commissioners are not Anti-American like ours! Who purchases a team in America's pasttime and moves the franchise to Canada? I bet he doesn't even have a beard or own a flannel shirt. 

  • Kenny Powers - ran by our former commissioner alogman1. Generally posts end of the year Wrap Ups.
    • See, his name actually sounds like he could be Canadian. 
  • Cobb - another league ran by alogman1 with a similar set up to KP, posting a recap of the season. 
  • Yount - The most active of those given a shout out, their latest post covers the top 100 prospects in the league. A few other posts include Vegas odds at win totals, WAR, Post season awards, and MWR updates. 
  • Plumpy Rules - Posts seem to center around voting periods, both HoF and End of Season. Not sure how they get there, but they seem to include WAR for all players. 

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

And the S55 award goes to...

Jack Torrance - Contributing Reporter



And the Award goes to...

Continuing off last year's award season. You can generally find the runs, HRs, RBIs, and AVG listed on the website when voting but we'll cover a few of the player's advanced stats; including their Cash points (fantasy points - offense focused), weighted SBs (when relevant, attempted 15 or more), extra base hits, a player's wOBA (weighted on-base average), rc27 (runs created per 27 outs), and even a player's wRAA (weighed runs above average). All in the effort to see how each individual effected the games they played. Players in bold is our predicted winner.

MVP

We'll start off with the MVP race, listed by Skynet's favorites (ie. listed in order from website)

  • AL - Kyle Crain (C/DH) missed out on last year's award due to an injury but he's back with a vengeance by winning the HR Derby, All-Star Game MVP, and AL Silver Slugger.  With the playoffs under way he has potential to add a World Series Ring on top of all that. What a year for Crain. As usual, he's joined by teammate Matty Moss (2B) on the ballot. Should be interesting to see each of their careers when it comes to HoF voting after their retirement. He is also joined by teammate TJ Christenson (LF). The next usual name on the list is Wei-Yin Wan (1B) of the Huntington Tropics. Until one of them leaves the AL, I'd expect to see these two guys battle it out year after year for the prized award. He's an underdog by name but don't count out the Houston Space Cowboys own, (1B/LF) Carlos Soto. He continues to have dominant season after dominate season.  
    • Kyle Crain (C) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 658
      • xBH - 85
      • wRAA - 61.4
      • wOBA - .439
      • RC27 - 8.59
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: These numbers would be great for a 1B, but Crain was also managing the pitching staff behind the plate. He's back to his stellar seasons. Nearly 60 HR and 172 RBI with a .300+ average. He is the core the Expos lineup and as long as he continues to produce, the team will be winning. 
    • Wei-Yin Wan (1B)
      • Cash points - 619
      • xBH - 73
      • wRAA - 63.4
      • wOBA - .434
      • RC27 - 8.34
      • wSB - 0 (caught more times than successful)
        • Case for: He has Crain beat in average, but falls just below in HR, RBI, and other advanced stats. Imagine having a lineup with Crain at C and WYW at 1B; oh wait that's the AL All-Star lineup. 
    • Carlos Soto (1B/2B/LF)
      • Cash points - 544
      • xBH - 62
      • wRAA - 35.8
      • wOBA - .393
      • RC27 - 7.64
      • wSB - 5
        • Case for: A plus defender at 1B, and secured a 30+ HR / 30+ SB season; which is a rare accomplishment in Cobbfather. One of only 2 players this season. 
    • Matty Moss (2B)
      • Cash points - 534
      • xBH - 56
      • wRAA - 22.5
      • wOBA - .365
      • RC27 - 7.34
      • wSB - 13
        • Case for: This guy likely breaks the all-time record for stolen bases before he retires and he routinely scores 120+ a season, this year it was 141 with 83 stolen bases. Moss is constantly on the MVP ballot but always overlooked by the chicks who did the long balls. 
    • TJ Christenson (LF)
      • Cash points - 467
      • xBH - 60
      • wRAA - 14.4
      • wOBA - .353
      • RC27 - 6.24
      • wSB - 3
        • Case for: Adds value across the board, but he's below all those mentioned above. Even on a career worst season, he's still on the MVP ballot, that's gotta say something to what he adds to the team. 
  • NL - This should be short, Shea Crowe signed a max deal this past off-season and he should still be considered unpaid this season with what he produced. Wed' have to compare, but it's likely a top 10 season of all time. He's joined by the Smelly Douglas Laxton (RF) and Keith Halter (1B). And former Smelly and now Vancouver Canuck James Kondou (1B), who might I add is the second time in his career he's been on the MVP ballot; perhaps a slightly underrated player in this writer's opinion. And finally a usual suspect, Omar Gonzales (1B) with Tokyo. 
    • Shea Crowe (2B) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 767
      • xBH - 118
      • wRAA - 90.6
      • wOBA - .476
      • RC27 - 10.45
      • wSB - -1
        • Case for: The real question is, will he be an unanimous selection? Just misses the top 5 all-time in RC27 due to a power outtage to end the season. He's done wonders since being acquired by Chicago back in S50.
    • Douglas Laxton (RF)
      • Cash points - 654.5
      • xBH - 77
      • wRAA - 71.8
      • wOBA - .446
      • RC27 - 9.33
      • wSB - -2
        • Case for: Another strong season for Laxton that saw him fall 1 hit short of 200. Not only does he bring 40 HR power, but he'll be top 3 in walks. 
    • Keith Halter (1B)
      • Cash points - 552.5
      • xBH - 77
      • wRAA - 47.2
      • wOBA - .412
      • RC27 - 8.34
      • wSB - 2
        • Case for: Hard getting through the top of the NO Smell lineup, it seems there's always 2-3 of those guys on this list. If one has a mediocre season another is there to fill the gap. Halter while a great season, doesn't measure up to Laxton or even Crowe's. 
    • James Kondou (1B)
      • Cash points - 528.5
      • xBH - 76
      • wRAA - 39.4
      • wOBA - .404
      • RC27 - 8.2
      • wSB - 4
        • Case for: Kondou started on NO Smell but was traded for pennies, and what a trade this turned out for Vancouver. The Canadian voters will likely vote for him, but shouldn't expect anything else. As they say in their language....sorry!
    • Omar Gonzales (1B) 
      • Cash points - 726
      • xBH - 91
      • wRAA - 79.2
      • wOBA - .452
      • RC27 - 9.46
      • wSB - 1
        • Case for: Likely the 2nd best NL player this season for the lowly Tokyo Nomo. Will be interesting to see what he does next year. 

Cy Young

Next we have the Cy Young award. This time we'll be looking at a few advanced stats such as ERA+, FIP, Weighted Cash points to neutralize park factors. In the future, if we can figure out why our WAR numbers are so off, we'll include those as well. But for now we'll include K/BB and Quality Starts or Inherited Runners Scored as well. A reminder on ERA+, the average is 100 and anything above 100 indicates the pitcher performed better than average while below performed worse than average. Score of 150 would be 50% better than average. The FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: K, BB, HBP, and HR. 
  • AL - So you get to pick between an Atlanta and Houston pitcher, which is no surprise given how quickly they separated themselves from the pack. 
    • JC Wall
      • ERA+ - 146
      • FIP - 3.70
      • Cash - 502
      • K/BB - 3.13
      • QS - 72%
        • Case for: The old Wall is back and performing like never before, he was in peak performance and nearly had the Cy locked up until a small bump at the end of the season. 
    • Damaso Ethier - Projected Winner
      • ERA+ - 182
      • FIP - 2.95
      • Cash - 505
      • K/BB - 2.75
      • QS% - 82%
        • Case for: This is the guy you'd want on the mound this season if it was down to one game.  Lowest ERA of the AL, only Wall had more wins in the AL, and he was #6 in K in the AL. 
    • Mitch Dillard
      • ERA+ - 172
      • FIP - 3.07
      • Cash - 482.5
      • K/BB - 3.13
      • QS% - 47%
        • Case for: By the advanced numbers he had a better season than Wall, but he's gotta get that quality start percent up so he's not so taxing on the bullpen. 
    • Alan Street
      • ERA+ - 116
      • FIP - 3.42
      • Cash - 531
      • K/BB - 3.40
      • QS% - 62%
        • Case for: He produced better than the numbers say he did, but when you pitch with Atlanta's bats on side, it's easy to give up a few extra runs. 
    • Darby Hatcher
      • ERA+ - 99
      • FIP - 4.55
      • Cash - 300
      • K/BB - 2.58
      • SV% - 85%
        • Case for: Closers are a different breed and not easily compared with the starters. His ERA+ and FIP say he was league average or worse, but I attribute that to small sample size. Is he my go to closer, probably not; but I'd be MORE than happy to have him as one. 
  • NL - Some of the usual suspects here as well. Drew, White, Combs, Bonilla all familiar faces on the Cy Young ballot. But this year Vancouver adds Cy Hawkins. Bonilla while familiar is on the Chicago squad instead of New Orleans this year and proved to be a great signing this off-season. Can Nigel White take home another NL Cy Young? 
    • Alton Drew
      • ERA+ - 174
      • FIP - 3.05
      • Cash - 618
      • K/BB - 2.55
      • QS% - 76%
        • Case for: He's the easy choice if you just look at the surface, and that's fine if you do. His 618 Cash points are the highest of any pitcher, but that's mostly effected by how many strike outs he gets in a season. 
    • Nigel White - Predicted Winner
      • ERA+ - 237
      • FIP - 2.51
      • Cash - 490
      • K/BB - 4.38
      • QS% - 69%
        • Case for: White continues to produce for Hartford year after year and this one was no different. Given how much better he was than league average and boosts a higher than normal K/BB; we like him a lot for the award. When he puts up these kind of advanced stats it's just hard to compare anyone else. 
    • Louis Combs
      • ERA+ - 155
      • FIP - 3.60
      • Cash - 368
      • K/BB - 3.17
      • QS% - 63%
        • Case for: Great season for Combs as he continues to win 15+ games with a sub 3.00 ERA. He seems to like playing in New Orleans but sadly still not up to par with White. 
    • Rico Bonilla
      • ERA+ - 131
      • FIP - 3.74
      • Cash - 496
      • K/BB - 2.35
      • QS% - 66%
        • Case for: Showing age is just a number, Bonilla put up his best numbers since S52's Cy Young award winning season. 
    • Cy Hawkins
      • ERA+ - 116
      • FIP - 3.99
      • Cash - 413
      • K/BB - 3.16
      • QS% - 59%
        • Case for: He falls into the Alan Street category, his numbers were better than his advance stats. Though he did help lead the Canucks to a division title and all time franchise team win record. 

Rookie of the Year

And you can't forget our about Rookies. This one gets a little trickier as the list often mixes pitchers with hitters. But we'll do the best we can. 
  • AL - Lots of fun names this year, including the AL Fireman of the Year Darby Hatcher. Along with fellow reliever Whit Benoit from Helena. The well traveled Robin Motte joints the list with two bats, 3B Woodie Yarnall and 1B Del 'Ellen' Allen.
    • Alexander Sandberg (1B)
      • Cash points - 429
      • xBH - 65
      • wRAA - 23
      • wOBA - .375
      • RC27 - 6.26
      • wSB - 1
        • Case for: Heck of a season for the young 23 yr old. 28 doubles, 30 HR, 15 SB on a .277 average. Kept the Ks down under 100 though he didn't walk often. 
    • Louie Weiss (1B) - Projected Winner
      • Cash points - 405.5
      • xBH - 66
      • wRAA - 32.3
      • wOBA - .398
      • RC27 - 6.84
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: Weiss and Wan should be an interesting combo if Huntington can put things together. At just 21 I expect to see more progress from the young 1B. His rookie season came in at 35 HR, a .291 AVG with nearly 30 doubles. 
    • Edgmer Romero (RP) 
      • ERA+ - 143
      • FIP - 4.43
      • Cash - 205
      • K/BB - 2.13
      • IRS% - 11% (2 of 18)
        • Case for: Solid bullpen piece that closed out quite a few of Nasvhille's games. Didn't K a ton but doesn't seem to walk them either. With a solid defense behind him, he could be even better!
    • Wilking Alvarez (SP)
      • ERA+ - 123
      • FIP - 3.37
      • Cash - 382
      • K/BB - 3.92
      • QS% - 53%
        • Case for: After staring 6 games last year, he went a full season this year and kept the ERA under 4. A solid K/BB rate and nice advanced numbers across the board. As the Boston team improves, I expect Alvarez's numbers to improve as well. 
    • Mickey Barmes (1B)
      • Cash points - 486
      • xBH - 53
      • wRAA - 29.5
      • wOBA - .377
      • RC27 - 5.83
      • wSB - irrelevant 
        • Case for: Another 21 year old who still has room to improve...even on the 40 HR he hit this year. I would like to see the batting average come up but a fantastic season none-the-less. 
  • NL - Another interesting group that will be fun to watch grow. reliever Nash Washington, Jeff Jones, and a few bats 3B Chili Lawton, LF Ernest Clements, and 1B Jason McGuiness. Interesting enough all but one of those guys are watching the playoffs from home. Jones follows teammate Mike Young in being nominated for the award. While McGuiness hopes to do what his teammate Emilio Molina couldn't do last year and take the trophy home for himself. 
    • Spud Campbell (1B) 
      • Cash points - 414.5
      • xBH - 51
      • wRAA - 28.6
      • wOBA - .390
      • RC27 - 7.1
      • wSB - -1
        • Case for: When traded he was compared to an Omar Gonzales-lite and now that Omar resigned with Tokyo it's a match made in heaven. As promised, he's the lite version of Omar. 
    • Ruben Suarez (SP)
      • ERA+ - 113
      • FIP - 3.57
      • Cash - 325
      • K/BB - 2.19
      • QS% - 63%
        • Case for: For a young Corgis team Suarez has a great season, sub 4 ERA, 32 starts, ERA+ shows he was above average, a FIP near 3.50.
    • TJ Nick (CF) 
      • Cash points - 382
      • xBH - 40
      • wRAA - -10.5
      • wOBA - .308
      • RC27 - 4.6
      • wSB - 7
        • Case for: Plus defender out in Center, has room for improvement at the plate. 
    • Dee Valle (1B) 
      • Cash points - 312
      • xBH - 38
      • wRAA - -18.4
      • wOBA - .292
      • RC27 - 3.3
      • wSB - 3
        • Case for: Might be a bright future but sub .240 average, caught stealing more than he stole, and below 10 HR. Was there a drought on rookies this year, maybe but it's the 22 plus plays at 1B that has him on the list.  
    • Tsubasa Maeda (LF) 
      • Cash points - 271
      • xBH - 39
      • wRAA - -25.3
      • wOBA - .281
      • RC27 - 3.4
      • wSB - 2
        • Case for: Another Corgis on teh list, and this one offers speed but the rest of his game needs to improve. 

Cash Points

The top 20 hitters players under the Cash system are:
  1. 767 - Shea Crowe (Chi)
  2. 726 - Omar Gonzales (Tok)
  3. 658 - Kyle Crain (Atl)
  4. 655 - Douglas Laxton (NO)
  5. 619 - Wei-Yin Wan (Hun)
  6. 553 - Keith Halter (CLB/NO)
  7. 544 - Carlos Soto (Hou)
  8. 540 - Gregorio Cordero (NO)
  9. 534 - Matty Moss (Atl)
  10. 529 - Yoervis Colome (NY)
  11. 529 - James Kondou (Van)
  12. 527 - Tomas Urias (Van)
  13. 525 - Javier Quevedo (NO)
  14. 521 - Dilson Rojas (Sal)
  15. 513 - Juancito Martin (NO)
  16. 513 - Doug Carpenter (SJ)
  17. 500 - Al Cervantes (Phi)
  18. 490 - Daniel Federowicz (Was)
  19. 488 - Josh Hunt (NO)
  20. 467 - Bennie Serra (Hou)
And the bottom 10 hitters with at least 300 ABs are. It's generally filled with SSs who often but not always provide solid defense to make up for it. Let's see who we've got this year. One thing to note, no Garabez Belliard now that Hartford replaced him. And what a smart move, he was a killer of runs. 
  1. 58 - Rudy Mustelier (CSP - C)
    1. -22.3 wRAA
  2. 79 - Yusmeiro Del Rosario (Phil - SS) 
    1. -23.9  wRAA
  3. 81 - Deven Aceves (Hel - SS)
    1. -18  wRAA
  4. 84 - Jonas Rzepczynski (MC - SS)
    1. -23.5  wRAA
  5. 86 - Tern Lee (Tac - C)
    1. -21.2  wRAA
The top 20 pitchers under the cash system are:
  1. 618 - Alton Drew (Chi)
  2. 531 - Alan Street (Atl)
  3. 505 - Damaso Ethier (Atl)
  4. 505 - Joaquin Owen (Phi)
  5. 502 - JC Wall (Atl)
  6. 496 - Rico Bonillla (Chi)
  7. 490 - Nigel White (Har)
  8. 483 - Mitch Dillard (Hou)
  9. 470 - Brian Fukudome (Pit)
  10. 462 - Tony Lim (CSP)
  11. 459 - Koyie Ward (CSP)
  12. 457 - Roger Simon (Hun)
  13. 456 - Midre Benavente (OKC)
  14. 455 - Pedro Puello (OKC)
  15. 456 - Jesse Fields (OKC)
  16. 432 - Rougned Pulido (Pit)
  17. 431 - Frank Kim (Min)
  18. 431 - Santo Estrella (OKC)
  19. 428 - Quilvio Infante (Atl)
  20. 428 - Brett Humphries (Hun)

Friday, May 12, 2023

S55 On The Books!

Jessica Fletcher - contributing reporter

The annual 7yankee7 recruitment post reminds me that it's time to look at future budgets. Here is who has the most committed in future seasons. List in order of most future money committed. In the 'Future salary is future owner problems' is the Chicago Gunslingers with just over $285M and at least $59M on the books for the next three seasons. No commitment issues there! On the flip side, Helena and Mexico City are holding strong to their commitment to not commit. Helena does one better by still having $0M in future salary. 





Saturday, May 6, 2023

S55 Updated Rankings

Richard Castle - contributing reporter


Skynet's motto, Can't Stop Won't Stop, as they keep plugging away With nearly 45 games left to play let's see how the rankings are shaking out. I won't say five of the eight divisions appear to be set with sizeable leads; but just take a look at the standings and figure that out for yourself. 


In the AL - the current leaders in the North and West currently hold 2 game leads, whereas Boston sits tied for the 3rd best record in the AL behind only Atlanta (their division leader) and Houston but will be playing as Wildcard. The second wildcard looks to be the loser of the AL North as it stands today.  

In the NL - Chicago continues to go on a tear, along with New Orleans and Pittsburgh; they all own double digit leads for their divisions. While we see the West just a single game separation. Similar to the situation in Boston, Hartford would be winning the divisions in the East and West but will be looking at the Wildcard 1 slot.  

If we look at how each team has expected to win based off recent play, here is what we'd see. Champs and Wildcard are listed based on current standings and in bold. Appears  to be a tough battle in the National League while I'd fully expect to see Atlanta vs Houston in the ALCS without a doubt. And in the division nobody wants to win, the AL West is the tightest division amongst the four teams in it, with only 4 games separating last from first. 
  1. .810 - Atlanta Expos (AL-E Champ)
  2. .675 - Chicago Gunslingers (NL-N Champ)
  3. .648 - New Orleans Smell (NL-S Champ)
  4. .639 - Houston Space Cowboys (AL-S Champ)
  5. .639 - Vancouver Canucks (NL-W Wildcard 2)
  6. .637 - Hartford Rising Stars (NL-N Wildcard 1)
  7. .609 - Oklahoma City Barons (NL-W - Champ)
  8. .577 - Pittsburgh Yinzers (NL-E Champ)
  9. .565 - Boston Baseball Team (AL-E - Wildcard 1)
  10. .563 - Philadelphia Harpers (AL-N Wildcard 2)
  11. .551 - Minnesota North Stars (AL-N Champ)
  12. .515 - Huntington Tropics (AL-S)
  13. .507 - San Juan Fudds (NL-S)
  14. .492 - Salem Bourbon Makers (NL-W)
  15. .473 - New York Empire (AL-E)
  16. .472 - Milwaukee Metronomes (AL-N)
  17. .463 - Sante Fe Surf Riders VIII (NL-S)
  18. .458 - Nashville Music Notes (AL-S)
  19. .448 - Buffalo Bisons (NL-E)
  20. .448 - Colorado Springs From My Lions (AL-W)
  21. .444 - Salt Lake City Punk! (AL-W Champ)
  22. .436 - Dover Hazmats (AL-N)
  23. .430 - Columbus Corgis (NL-E)
  24. .409 - Mexico City Staring Frogs (AL-S)
  25. .396 - Montreal Fighting Poutine Plates (NL-N)
  26. .391 - Austin Son's of Odin (NL-S)
  27. .386 - Augusta Alcoholics (AL-E)
  28. .385 - Anaheim Diablos (AL-W)
  29. .385 - Washington DC Nationals (NL-E)
  30. .382 - Tokyo Nomo (NL-W)
  31. .367 - Helena Hot Dogs (AL-W Champ)
  32. .366 - Tacoma Aroma (NL-N)

Thursday, May 4, 2023

S55 Draft Recap

Gabrielle  O. Alvarez-Tillman - Contributing Reporter.



Yet another draft season in Cobbfather, so let's round up the Rule 4 draft. The blog had to fire a few scouts because budgets are tight, so temper the projections a bit. Let's dig into it! We'll do the same as last season and add in current ML comps to most players - maybe not all. As a reminder comps are to match their projections as closely as possible and not what they may end up like. 

1. Columbus - Ewell Little (SP) - Little came up big in the draft, having been drafted by the Columbus franchise who put on an extreme fire sale last season. In a league filled with superb hitting, it's nice to see a pitcher at the top of your scouting reports come draft time. Little offers pretty decent command and should own most lefties he faces. The righties on the other hand will be what determines his ability to be All-star starting pitcher. Well that and his pitch quality, which isn't as high as one would like for a #1 overall pick. His comp is Santiago Terrero, who is having an interesting season in hitter friendly Santa Fe.

2.  Dover - Bert Cooper (2B) - If rumors are true, Bert is working with retired 2B Ernie McErnerney. A player many thought should be in the Hall of Fame for his work at second base. Bert might be better than Ernie at receiving balls in the field, but by the end of his career Ernie will have been the better bat. With Bert's eye and contact he shows potential but he's gotta improve those splits otherwise he'll continue to struggle. If allowed to run, I'd expect anywhere from 20-35 stolen bases in a year. This season's Kenny Jacquez is likely his closest comp; which is a hard year to compare given his age and drop in ratings this season. Perhaps Brace Lansing but better contact, far worse against lefties and less speed....so maybe not really a great comp. 

3. Sante Fe - Kristopher Clarkson (2B) - No this isn't the Clarkson who won the inaugural season of American Idol. Yes, this is the first time since S32 that Santa Fe has picked within the top. Playing in New Mexico every hitter gets a bit of a boost at the plate. That bodes well for a player whose comparison is TJ Christenson with less speed and hits righties a few points less. Santa Fe is currently looking at another protected first round pick next season, and with a willingness to speed we should see a turn around for the franchise soon. New Orleans can't hold the division forever!

4. Mexico City - Dan Ford (SP) -  Ford actually projects similar to S55 $36M IFA signing Lorenzo Domingo so I'd give him a little nod over the #1 pick this season. As far as ML talent goes, I'd probably put him in line with Louis Combs who finished S54 5th place in Cy Young voting.  Ford might not quite get to that point with his pitch quality, but if he can pan out to projects we think this is a great add for Mexico City's future rotation. 

5. Anaheim - Danny Jackson (SS) - We are used to seeing Shortstops within the top 5 picks so this is no surprise. His arm strength might move him off the Short and with a lack of power Centerfield might be better than 3B for Jackson. And sadly, he will likely platoon against lefties only given his lack of ability to hit Righties. No great comps but I'd look to Storm Phelps. Jackson with better contact skills and runs the bases MUCH better but see note above about righties. 

6. Tacoma - Scott Stokes (SP) - Second straight year with the #6 pick, decent chance to land the same pick next year (currently at #4 pick). Do you smell that? It's not what the Rock is cookin' but the scent of the Aroma being stoked about this pick and their future front line starter. He might struggle occasionally against Lefties but that's expected as a right handed pitcher. I wish his pitch quality was a bit higher but I'd be happy with a Damaso Ethier comp. The 27 yr old has 5 All-Star appearances, 1 Rookie of the Year, 2 World Series rings, and just this season secured a Player of the Week. In 10 seasons we'll be looking back to see if Ford or Stokes is the top pitcher in this season's draft. 

7. Augusta - Stephen Judd (SP) - May the 4th be with you, I mean 4th pitcher drafted be with you, I mean with Augusta. Judd is clearly below the other three taken before him but should be interesting to see how he develops. He really needs to get that pitch quality up if he's going to survive with the pairing of being a flyball pitcher with low velocity. Jimmy Henry's splits might be a little low for a comp but we think he's the nearest but give Judd a slightly better ERA by 0.50ish. 

8. Washington DC - Brock Hogan (RF) - We covered DC's drafting ability earlier this season so let's see how they made out this year. Like Jackson before him, Brock 'Merry Hill' Hogan is likely destined to be a lefty platoon with potential to be a AAAA player who is traded S58 in a package deal. But if you are looking for what he'll produce, look at Vance DeSclafani as his near floor. 

9. Tokyo - Tom Spilborghs (P) - Took awhile but Tommy finally signed. Quite a few quality pitchers ahead of him, let's take a look at where the bean spiller falls. He shows promise for amazing control and decent velocity to pair with it. Assuming his splits come around, he's Norm Cunningham though slightly worse against righties but slightly better against lefties.  Given Norm's ERA+ of 125 last season, I'd say that's decent quality at the #9 pick. 

10. Milwaukee - Calvin Bourn (2B) - I wouldn't make this an ultimatum but don't expect an All-star from Bourn. Even if he lives up to expectations he's a weak hitting bat that's reserved for back-up role players. Think Jorge Boscan without the pitch calling.  Though Bourn has a TON more speed than Milwaukee's backup Catcher. 

11. Austin - Kane Byrdak (2B) - You might as well bunch Bourn and Byrdak together with The Undertaker's brother being the lesser of the two. This comp is a starter, but only because he offers the glove to man Shortstop, Byrdak won't have that option. Max Hernandez. Austin will look to try again with a similar round pick in next season's draft. Let's hope they can strike gold next season!

12. Salem - Adeiny Santana (SP) - Things are getting ridiculous, now parents are just cramming letters together to make someone's name.  Santana has shown some great control and promising velocity if his pitch quality can develop. I'd expect quite a few flyballs in the neutral park of Salem but hopefully they have some decent outfielders and not a bunch of DH types guys in the corners. His nearest comp is Albert Doubront as a starter. For a 12th overall pick I'd take that. He's not the front line starter but should definitely develop into a mid/back end rotation type. 

13. Vancouver - Rocco Ellenwood (2B) - Already promoted to Low A, Ellenwood was drafted as a SS but quickly shifted over to 2B defensively.  While we like his comp, the blog can't figure out how Francis Jefferson is doing it. His numbers say this season should be more his norm than the previous; especially considering he's hit near .300 for those of those seasons. Perhaps the speed difference will keep Rocco down on earth. 

14. Augusta - Don Rivera (SP) - Type D pick. Augusta's second starting pitcher prospect drafted in the top 15 picks; The extremely low velocity without being a pure groundball pitcher might hamper Rivera a bit, but his livelihood will be determine on his pitch quality of his 4-seam coming around. But that's gotta make you question things, his velocity rating is extremely low and his best pitch is a 4-seasm fastball. Mmmmm... but look at Albert Calderone as his comp. 

15. Montreal - Keith Carroll (SS) - A Canadian team failing to get it done, figures! Good luck with the #16 Type D pick next season. Might a good thing as Carroll didn't look like he'd have the glove to stick at SS, nor the bat for any other position outside of water boy.  And not the good kind like Adam Sandler. 

16. Salt Lake City - Deacon Belinda (P) - The last pick to be covered in our recap is yet another pitcher. All we gotta say is hello Arismendy Costilla reincarnated. Solid pick this late in the round, I'd expect to see him move up some slots in 10 seasons when we do our redraft. Only time will tell!

Recap: 8 pitchers, 2 second baseman, 3 shortstops, 2 center fielders, and a right fielder. Very pitcher focused this season.  Most expensive signing: #2 overall to Docer - Bert Cooper - $6.41M

Let's go prospects, it's nearly your time to shine!!