Jack Torrance - Contributing Reporter
And the Award goes to...
With award season right around the corner, I thought we'd try something a little different this year and take a closer look at those eligible for individual awards. You can generally find the runs, HRs, RBIs, and AVG listed on the website when voting but we'll cover a few of the player's advanced stats; including their Cash points (fantasy points - offense focused), SB success rate (when relevant, attempted 15 or more), extra base hits, a player's wOBA (weighted on-base average), rc27 (runs created per 27 outs), and even a player's wRAA (weighed runs above average). All in the effort to see how each individual effected the games they palyed. Players in bold is our predicted winner.
MVP
We'll start off with the MVP race. (listed in order from website)
- AL - It's a tough battle with 5 MVP choices coming from 3 different teams. Atlanta has both Crain & Moss, and Wichita has Christenson & Lansing. Rounding out the list is reigning MVP Cervantes from Philly. I don't think defense carries as much weight as it should in the voter's hearts, but if they do you to just remember that Moss players 2B, Lansing won a Gold Glove at 1B this season, and Crain caught 82 games behind the plate this season. For those playing at home, as great as Lansing and Christenson were, Wichita missed the playoffs by 3 games. In the end we go with Crain, the guy just mashed everything and set an Atlanta franchise record for HRs and a top 5 seasons in RBI.
- Al Cervantes (LF)
- Cash points - 612
- xBH - 92
- wRAA - 57.4
- wOBA - .424
- RC27 - 8.8
- SB% - 60% success
- Kyle Crain (C/DH)- Predicted Winner
- Cash points - 670
- xBH - 87
- wRAA - 70.6
- wOBA - .458
- RC27 - 9.14
- SB% - irrelevant
- Matty Moss (2B)
- Cash points - 577.5
- xBH - 70
- wRAA - 33.3
- wOBA - .389
- RC27 - 8.28
- SB% - 98.8% success (stole 82 and was only caught once)
- Brace Lansing (1B)
- Cash points - 510.5
- xBH - 64
- wRAA - 20.2
- wOBA - .364
- RC27 - 6.12
- SB% - irrelevant
- NOTE: Also won a Gold Glove at 1B
- TJ Christenson (LF)
- Cash points - 493.5
- xBH - 70
- wRAA - 21.3
- wOBA - .369
- RC27 - 6.78
- SB% - irrelevant
- NL - We are mixed up with three 1Bs and two CFs and this one feels a little closer than the AL race. The Columbus votes will be split between Halter and Castillo; the latter of which proved well worth the $30M he was paid this season. Tarraga is trying to win a Cobbfather record 9th MVP but you gotta give props to reigning MVP Omar Gonzales with the highest ratings across the board.
- Bey Combs (CF)
- Cash points - 536.5
- xBH - 91
- wRAA - 40.5
- wOBA - .396
- RC27 - 7.27
- SB% - 69.8% (30 of 43)
- Anibal Castillo (CF)
- Cash points - 534.5
- xBH - 77
- wRAA - 31.5
- wOBA - .382
- RC27 - 6.47
- SB% - 40.9% (9 of 24)
- Alex Tarraga (1B)
- Cash points - 610.5
- xBH - 76
- wRAA - 56.9
- wOBA - .436
- RC27 - 8.24
- SB% - irrelevant
- Omar Gonzales (1B) - Predicted Winner
- Cash points - 669
- xBH - 83
- wRAA - 62.4
- wOBA - .433
- RC27 - 8.53
- SB% - 54.6% (12 of 22)
- Keith Halter (1B)
- Cash points - 607.5
- xBH - 80
- wRAA - 30.8
- wOBA - .380
- RC27 - 6.58
- SB% - 81.5% (22 of 27)
Cy Young
Next we have the Cy Young award. This time we'll be looking at a few advanced stats such as ERA+, FIP, Weighted Cash points to neutralize park factors. In the future, if we can figure out why our WAR numbers are so off, we'll include those as well. But for now we'll include K/BB and Quality Starts as well. A reminder on ERA+, the average is 100 and anything above 100 indicates the pitcher performed better than average while below performed worse than average. The FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: K, BB, HBP, and HR.
- AL - Atlanta's top two rotation pieces make the list again. Wall working on his possible 4th straight Cy Young award. Unfortunately Wall stumbled a bit this year and I had to take him out of the running. It really came down to Thompson and White. If Dover didn't make the 2nd most errors in the league I think a lot more people would be taking a closer look at Nigel White this season. It makes you wonder how many Ws his defense cost him.
- William Thompson - Predicted Winner
- ERA+ - 148
- FIP - 3.80
- Cash - 520
- K/BB - 2.88
- QS - 24
- JC Wall
- ERA+ - 118
- FIP - 4.02
- Cash - 511
- K/BB - 2.37
- QS - 22
- Magglio Exposito
- ERA+ - 158
- FIP - 3.56
- Cash - 412
- K/BB - 2.89
- QS - 25
- Nigel White
- ERA+ - 199
- FIP - 3.04
- Cash - 425
- K/BB - 3.19
- QS - 22
- Jim Fien
- ERA+ - 145
- FIP - 3.77
- Cash - 420
- K/BB - 2.21
- QS - 24
- NL - What a list we have this year. We have the 4 main starters from the NOOFs and the closer for Buffalo. Surely without any one of these guys, their respective teams would have been in a completely different situation. Ultimately it came down to a toss up between Bonilla and Combs. Unlucky for Bennie the only 20 game winner on the list, he may have gotten a little lucky this season with the bullpen not blowing his games. Will be interesting to see how these votes go.
- Rico Bonilla - Predicted Winner
- ERA+ - 168
- FIP - 3.52
- Cash - 605
- K/BB - 3.53
- QS - 28
- Bennie Swann
- ERA+ - 148
- FIP - 3.90
- Cash - 421
- K/BB - 2.8
- QS - 24
- Jayson Roof
- ERA+ - 141
- FIP - 3.70
- Cash - 289
- K/BB - 3.63
- Inherited Runners Scored - Held 10 of 14.
- Louis Combs
- ERA+ - 181
- FIP - 3.37
- Cash - 445
- K/BB - 2.84
- QS - 25
- Doc Cortes
- ERA+ - 156
- FIP - 3.08
- Cash - 492
- K/BB - 3.12
- QS - 24
Rookie of the Year
And you can't forget our about Rookies. This one gets a little trickier as the list often mixes pitchers with hitters. But we'll do the best we can.
- AL - Four Hitters and a Funn...Pitcher. Not often we see a middle relief guy in the running but that's what we have this year. His value to Atlanta was great and he easily transitioned from his top starters to the closer in the 9th, often times hitting up a few extra innings. But does his season warrant giving him the Rookie of the Year? Tough call against the power bats on the ballot. As much as I want to go with Pryor given his contribution to the El Paso team who came out of nowhere to nearly steal the 2nd wildcard spot out from under Minnesota of Colorado Springs. But the gut says to go with Soto.
- Fautino Salas (P)
- Pitching 87 games this season out of the pen, often times getting to the closer.
- Saved 7 of 11 chances.
- ERA+ - 132
- FIP - 3.68
- Cash points - 275.5
- Weighted - 290
- Turner Pryor (1B)
- Cash points - 461.5
- xBH - 57
- wRAA - 23.7
- wOBA - .370
- RC27 - 5.85
- Nearly 200 base hits on the season after hitting .303 and had a major part in El Paso nearly making the playoffs, losing by a tiebreaker.
- Carlos Soto (2B) - Predicted Winner
- Cash points - 468
- xBH - 57
- wRAA - 50.5
- wOBA - .469
- RC27 - 10.77
- All this in 100 games, but could he keep it up for another 50-60 in a full regular season? Guess we'll find out next year.
- Juan Acosta (LF)
- Cash points - 311
- xBH - 13
- wRAA - -18
- wOBA - .293
- RC27 - 4.71
- SB% - 96.5% success (83 of 86)
- He didn't have the best OBP but with that speed he often ended up in scoring position for the hitters behind him. Way to set the table Acosta!
- Angelys Ramirez (RF)
- Cash points - 379
- xBH - 67
- wRAA - 4.6
- wOBA - .338
- RC27 - 4.64
- SB% - 61% success (22 of 36)
- Nearly hit the 100+ run, 40+ hr, 100+ rbi, missing it by 9 runs and 1 HR.
- NL - Vancouver's run was in thanks to two hot rookies. The NL rookies are covered two CFs, LF, RF, and a 2B. While there are quite a few nice options, we had to go with Francis Jefferson of Buffalo. Hard to argue 100+ R, 35+ HR, 100+ RBI and nearly 30 SBs on the season for a CF.
- Francis Jefferson (CF) - Predicted Winner
- Cash points - 487
- xBH - 76
- wRAA - 29.5
- wOBA - .383
- RC27 - 6.72
- SB% - 76% success (29 of 38)
- Hugh McMillan (LF)
- Cash points - 379
- xBH - 55
- wRAA - 14.6
- wOBA - .356
- RC27 - 5.22
- SB% - irrelevant
- Hugh also won the Gold Glove in LF.
- Bernard Morton (RF)
- Cash points - 446
- xBH - 64
- wRAA - 17.9
- wOBA - .360
- RC27 - 5.73
- SB% - 50% success (12 of 24)
- Joaquin Villar (CF)
- Cash points - 343
- xBH - 50
- wRAA - 23
- wOBA - .393
- RC27 - 7.33
- SB% - 81% success (17 of 21)
- Ron McDowell (2B)
- Cash points - 331
- xBH - 40
- wRAA - 14
- wOBA - .357
- RC27 - 5.84
- SB% - 60% success (21 of 35)
Cash Points
The top 20 hitters players under the Cash system are:
- 670 - Kyle Crain (Atl - C)
- 669 - Omar Gonzales (Tuc - 1B)
- 652 - Josmil Velazquez (Col - 1B)
- 627 - Alex Perez (Mont - 1B)
- 612 - Al Cervantes (Phi - LF)
- 610 - Alex Tarraga (Buf - 1B)
- 607 - Keith Halter (Col - 1B)
- 577 - Matty Moss (Atl -2B)
- 559 - Bonk Burnett (Hart - CF)
- 555 - Matt Tanner (Col - LF)
- 555 - Harry Padilla (NY - 2B)
- 554 - Nomar Rodgers (Atl - 1B)
- 552 - Benny Saez (SJ - 2B)
- 552 - Olmedo Nunez (Wash DC - C)
- 539 - Shea Crowe (Chi - LF)
- 536 - Bey Combs (SJ - CF)
- 535 - Roger Stinnett (Dov - 2B)
- 534 - Anibal Castillo (Col - CF)
- 532 - Vin Prieto (NY - 1B)
- 531 - Geronimo Nunez (Tuc - 2B)
And the bottom 10 hitters with at least 300 ABs are:
- 16 - Johnny Newman (Hel - CF)
- -49 wRAA
- 23 - Garabez Belliard (Hart - SS)
- nearly 600 ABs
- -58.4 wRAA
- 50 - Yuniesky Lima (Ana - SS)
- -35.5 wRAA
- 51 - William Vaughn (SJ - SS)
- -28.3 wRAA
- 88 - Jimmie Sosa (Dov - SS)
- -33 wRAA
The top 20 pitchers under the cash system are:
- 605 - Rico Bonilla (NO)
- 532 - Koyie Ward (Chi)
- 517 - Alton Drew (Chi)
- 493 - William Thompson (Atl)
- 492 - Doc Cortes (NO)
- 485 - JC Wall (Atl)
- 464 - Brian Fukudome (Chi)
- 449 - Damaso Ethier (Atl)
- 448 - Gregor Lopez (Buf)
- 448- Nigel White (Dov)
- 445 - Louis Combs (NO)
- 433 - Alan Street (Col)
- 432 - Jiovanni Poole (NY)
- 427 - Louis Conley (NY)
- 425 - Zephyr Gross (Atl)
- 425 - Joaquin Owen (Phi)
- 424 - Jim Fien (Phi)
- 422 - Bennie Swann (NO)
- 412 - Tomas Gomez (Min)
- 412 - Cy Hawkins (Van)