Sunday, August 21, 2022

And the award goes to....

 Jack Torrance - Contributing Reporter



And the Award goes to...

With award season right around the corner, I thought we'd try something a little different this year and take a closer look at those eligible for individual awards. You can generally find the runs, HRs, RBIs, and AVG listed on the website when voting but we'll cover a few of the player's advanced stats; including their Cash points (fantasy points - offense focused), SB success rate (when relevant, attempted 15 or more), extra base hits, a player's wOBA (weighted on-base average), rc27 (runs created per 27 outs), and even a player's wRAA (weighed runs above average). All in the effort to see how each individual effected the games they palyed. Players in bold is our predicted winner.

MVP

We'll start off with the MVP race. (listed in order from website)

  • AL - It's a tough battle with 5 MVP choices coming from 3 different teams. Atlanta has both Crain & Moss, and Wichita has Christenson & Lansing. Rounding out the list is reigning MVP Cervantes from Philly. I don't think defense carries as much weight as it should in the voter's hearts, but if they do you to just remember that Moss players 2B, Lansing won a Gold Glove at 1B this season, and Crain caught 82 games behind the plate this season. For those playing at home, as great as Lansing and Christenson were, Wichita missed the playoffs by 3 games. In the end we go with Crain, the guy just mashed everything and set an Atlanta franchise record for HRs and a top 5 seasons in RBI. 
    • Al Cervantes (LF)
      • Cash points - 612
      • xBH - 92
      • wRAA - 57.4
      • wOBA - .424
      • RC27 - 8.8
      • SB% - 60% success
    • Kyle Crain (C/DH)- Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 670
      • xBH - 87
      • wRAA - 70.6
      • wOBA - .458
      • RC27 - 9.14
      • SB% - irrelevant 
    • Matty Moss (2B)
      • Cash points - 577.5
      • xBH - 70
      • wRAA - 33.3
      • wOBA - .389
      • RC27 - 8.28
      • SB% -  98.8% success (stole 82 and was only caught once)
    • Brace Lansing (1B)
      • Cash points - 510.5
      • xBH - 64
      • wRAA - 20.2
      • wOBA - .364
      • RC27 - 6.12
      • SB% - irrelevant 
      • NOTE: Also won a Gold Glove at 1B
    • TJ Christenson (LF)
      • Cash points - 493.5
      • xBH - 70
      • wRAA - 21.3
      • wOBA - .369
      • RC27 - 6.78
      • SB% - irrelevant 
  • NL - We are mixed up with three 1Bs and two CFs and this one feels a little closer than the AL race. The Columbus votes will be split between Halter and Castillo; the latter of which proved well worth the $30M he was paid this season. Tarraga is trying to win a Cobbfather record 9th MVP but you gotta give props to reigning MVP Omar Gonzales with the highest ratings across the board. 
    • Bey Combs (CF)
      • Cash points - 536.5
      • xBH - 91
      • wRAA - 40.5
      • wOBA - .396
      • RC27 - 7.27
      • SB% - 69.8% (30 of 43)
    • Anibal Castillo (CF)
      • Cash points - 534.5
      • xBH - 77
      • wRAA - 31.5
      • wOBA - .382
      • RC27 - 6.47
      • SB% - 40.9% (9 of 24)
    • Alex Tarraga (1B)
      • Cash points - 610.5
      • xBH - 76
      • wRAA - 56.9
      • wOBA - .436
      • RC27 - 8.24
      • SB% - irrelevant 
    • Omar Gonzales (1B) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 669
      • xBH - 83
      • wRAA - 62.4
      • wOBA - .433
      • RC27 - 8.53
      • SB% - 54.6% (12 of 22)
    • Keith Halter (1B)
      • Cash points - 607.5
      • xBH - 80
      • wRAA - 30.8
      • wOBA - .380
      • RC27 - 6.58
      • SB% - 81.5% (22 of 27)

Cy Young

Next we have the Cy Young award. This time we'll be looking at a few advanced stats such as ERA+, FIP, Weighted Cash points to neutralize park factors. In the future, if we can figure out why our WAR numbers are so off, we'll include those as well. But for now we'll include K/BB and Quality Starts as well. A reminder on ERA+, the average is 100 and anything above 100 indicates the pitcher performed better than average while below performed worse than average. The FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: K, BB, HBP, and HR. 
  • AL - Atlanta's top two rotation pieces make the list again. Wall working on his possible 4th straight Cy Young award. Unfortunately Wall stumbled a bit this year and I had to take him out of the running. It really came down to Thompson and White. If Dover didn't make the 2nd most errors in the league I think a lot more people would be taking a closer look at Nigel White this season. It makes you wonder how many Ws his defense cost him. 
    • William Thompson - Predicted Winner
      • ERA+ - 148
      • FIP - 3.80
      • Cash - 520
      • K/BB - 2.88
      • QS - 24
    • JC Wall
      • ERA+ - 118
      • FIP - 4.02
      • Cash - 511
      • K/BB - 2.37
      • QS - 22
    • Magglio Exposito
      • ERA+ - 158
      • FIP - 3.56
      • Cash - 412
      • K/BB - 2.89
      • QS - 25
    • Nigel White
      • ERA+ - 199
      • FIP - 3.04
      • Cash - 425
      • K/BB - 3.19
      • QS - 22
    • Jim Fien
      • ERA+ - 145
      • FIP - 3.77
      • Cash - 420
      • K/BB - 2.21
      • QS - 24
  • NL - What a list we have this year. We have the 4 main starters from the NOOFs and the closer for Buffalo. Surely without any one of these guys, their respective teams would have been in a completely different situation. Ultimately it came down to a toss up between Bonilla and Combs. Unlucky for Bennie the only 20 game winner on the list, he may have gotten a little lucky this season with the bullpen not blowing his games. Will be interesting to see how these votes go. 
    • Rico Bonilla - Predicted Winner
      • ERA+ - 168
      • FIP - 3.52
      • Cash - 605
      • K/BB - 3.53
      • QS - 28
    • Bennie Swann
      • ERA+ - 148
      • FIP - 3.90
      • Cash - 421
      • K/BB - 2.8
      • QS - 24
    • Jayson Roof
      • ERA+ - 141
      • FIP - 3.70
      • Cash - 289
      • K/BB - 3.63
      • Inherited Runners Scored - Held 10 of 14.
    • Louis Combs 
      • ERA+ - 181
      • FIP - 3.37
      • Cash - 445
      • K/BB - 2.84
      • QS - 25
    • Doc Cortes 
      • ERA+ - 156
      • FIP - 3.08
      • Cash - 492
      • K/BB - 3.12
      • QS - 24

Rookie of the Year

And you can't forget our about Rookies. This one gets a little trickier as the list often mixes pitchers with hitters. But we'll do the best we can. 
  • AL - Four Hitters and a Funn...Pitcher. Not often we see a middle relief guy in the running but that's what we have this year. His value to Atlanta was great and he easily transitioned from his top starters to the closer in the 9th, often times hitting up a few extra innings. But does his season warrant giving him the Rookie of the Year? Tough call against the power bats on the ballot. As much as I want to go with Pryor given his contribution to the El Paso team who came out of nowhere to nearly steal the 2nd wildcard spot out from under Minnesota of Colorado Springs. But the gut says to go with Soto. 
    • Fautino Salas (P)
      • Pitching 87 games this season out of the pen, often times getting to the closer. 
      • Saved 7 of 11 chances. 
      • ERA+ - 132
      • FIP - 3.68
      • Cash points - 275.5
        • Weighted - 290
    • Turner Pryor (1B)
      • Cash points - 461.5
      • xBH - 57
      • wRAA - 23.7
      • wOBA - .370
      • RC27 - 5.85
      • Nearly 200 base hits on the season after hitting .303 and had a major part in El Paso nearly making the playoffs, losing by a tiebreaker. 
    • Carlos Soto (2B) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 468
      • xBH - 57
      • wRAA - 50.5
      • wOBA - .469
      • RC27 - 10.77
      • All this in 100 games, but could he keep it up for another 50-60 in a full regular season? Guess we'll find out next year. 
    • Juan Acosta (LF)
      • Cash points - 311
      • xBH - 13
      • wRAA - -18
      • wOBA - .293
      • RC27 - 4.71
      • SB% - 96.5% success (83 of 86)
      • He didn't have the best OBP but with that speed he often ended up in scoring position for the hitters behind him. Way to set the table Acosta!
    • Angelys Ramirez (RF)
      • Cash points - 379
      • xBH - 67
      • wRAA - 4.6
      • wOBA - .338
      • RC27 - 4.64
      • SB% - 61% success (22 of 36)
      • Nearly hit the 100+ run, 40+ hr, 100+ rbi, missing it by 9 runs and 1 HR. 
  • NL - Vancouver's run was in thanks to two hot rookies. The NL rookies are covered two CFs, LF, RF, and a 2B. While there are quite a few nice options, we had to go with Francis Jefferson of Buffalo. Hard to argue 100+ R, 35+ HR, 100+ RBI and nearly 30 SBs on the season for a CF. 
    • Francis Jefferson (CF) - Predicted Winner
      • Cash points - 487
      • xBH - 76
      • wRAA - 29.5
      • wOBA - .383
      • RC27 - 6.72
      • SB% - 76% success (29 of 38)
    • Hugh McMillan (LF)
      • Cash points - 379
      • xBH - 55
      • wRAA - 14.6
      • wOBA - .356
      • RC27 - 5.22
      • SB% - irrelevant
      • Hugh also won the Gold Glove in LF.
    • Bernard Morton (RF)
      • Cash points - 446
      • xBH - 64
      • wRAA - 17.9
      • wOBA - .360
      • RC27 - 5.73
      • SB% - 50% success (12 of 24)
    • Joaquin Villar (CF)
      • Cash points - 343
      • xBH - 50
      • wRAA - 23
      • wOBA - .393
      • RC27 - 7.33
      • SB% - 81% success (17 of 21)
    • Ron McDowell (2B)
      • Cash points - 331
      • xBH - 40
      • wRAA - 14
      • wOBA - .357
      • RC27 - 5.84
      • SB% - 60% success (21 of 35)

Cash Points

The top 20 hitters players under the Cash system are:
  1. 670 - Kyle Crain (Atl - C) 
  2. 669 - Omar Gonzales (Tuc - 1B)
  3. 652 - Josmil Velazquez (Col - 1B)
  4. 627 - Alex Perez (Mont - 1B)
  5. 612 - Al Cervantes (Phi - LF)
  6. 610 - Alex Tarraga (Buf - 1B)
  7. 607 - Keith Halter (Col - 1B)
  8. 577 - Matty Moss (Atl -2B)
  9. 559 - Bonk Burnett (Hart - CF)
  10. 555 - Matt Tanner (Col - LF)
  11. 555 - Harry Padilla (NY - 2B)
  12. 554 - Nomar Rodgers (Atl - 1B)
  13. 552 - Benny Saez (SJ - 2B)
  14. 552 - Olmedo Nunez (Wash DC - C)
  15. 539 - Shea Crowe (Chi - LF)
  16. 536 - Bey Combs (SJ - CF)
  17. 535 - Roger Stinnett (Dov - 2B)
  18. 534 - Anibal Castillo (Col - CF)
  19. 532 - Vin Prieto (NY - 1B)
  20. 531 - Geronimo Nunez (Tuc - 2B)
And the bottom 10 hitters with at least 300 ABs are:
  1. 16 - Johnny Newman (Hel - CF)
    1. -49 wRAA
  2. 23 - Garabez Belliard (Hart - SS)
    1. nearly 600 ABs
    2. -58.4  wRAA
  3. 50 - Yuniesky Lima (Ana - SS)
    1. -35.5  wRAA
  4. 51 - William Vaughn (SJ - SS)
    1. -28.3  wRAA
  5. 88 - Jimmie Sosa (Dov - SS)
    1. -33  wRAA
The top 20 pitchers under the cash system are:
  1. 605 - Rico Bonilla (NO)
  2. 532 - Koyie Ward (Chi)
  3. 517 - Alton Drew (Chi)
  4. 493 - William Thompson (Atl)
  5. 492 - Doc Cortes (NO)
  6. 485 - JC Wall (Atl)
  7. 464 - Brian Fukudome (Chi)
  8. 449 - Damaso Ethier (Atl)
  9. 448 - Gregor Lopez (Buf)
  10. 448- Nigel White (Dov)
  11. 445 - Louis Combs (NO)
  12. 433 - Alan Street (Col)
  13. 432 - Jiovanni Poole (NY)
  14. 427 - Louis Conley (NY)
  15. 425 - Zephyr Gross (Atl)
  16. 425 - Joaquin Owen (Phi)
  17. 424 - Jim Fien (Phi)
  18. 422 - Bennie Swann (NO)
  19. 412 - Tomas Gomez (Min)
  20. 412 - Cy Hawkins (Van)

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

How They Were Built! - Atlanta Expos

 Jessica Fletcher - contributing reporter



It's been awhile since we've run one of these, but with as dominate as the defending champions, the Atlanta Expos have been, I figured we'd cover their current team; assuming we don't get lost in all the moves. He ended the NY Empire's reign of the AL East that lasted a decade plus a year. If the season started with a 4, the Empire won the division. This year they come in with only the 14th highest payroll, so slightly above average. They've done a great job keeping the payroll down while still finding a way to win, having made the playoffs the last 4 seasons, even when their payroll was an extremely lite $8M back in Season 48. As of this writing, so far this season they are clear favorite to win; owning a 10 game lead on the second best record in the league (Chicago Gunslingers in the NL) and a 14 game lead on the second best team in the AL, the Philadelphia Harpers of the AL North. The Expos hold a league leading 334 run differential, one of 3 teams above 200 and the only above 300. Many thanks to J.C. Wall and William Thompson already having over 200 IP and 20+ Wins with 20 game still left to play and a team best 3.12 ERA. But you can't forget their league leading 252 HRs, which is still better than the teams in such hitter's parks as Santa Fe, Philadelphia, and Colorado. Though only 2nd in runs scored. Defensively they are well below average for errors.

  • Finances - One minor key to this team's strategy has to be finding top coaching talent on the cheap, as they routinely keep their coaching spending down to $8-9M. This current roster can be attributed to it's rebuilding starting with Season 46 where they took the payroll down to $46M from three seasons at $75M. Having owned the franchise since Season 5, when he took over for our now Chicago Gunslinger's owner. He's been well below $90M since Season 33, prior he spent 6 seasons above $100M and once getting up to $124M. Atlanta reached in every nook and cranny possible to build this team, everything from the Rule 4, to IFA, and into the trade markets to build this team.  
  • The Good (starters as of writing) 
    • Matty Moss (2B) - Season 46's #2 overall pick, but highest pick signed that season as a College freshmen. Signed at slot. Enters Arb3 next season. 
    • Brandon Stevens (CF vR) - Season 49 trade with the Vancouver Canucks, giving up Charley Rhymes (CF) and Wilmer James (ClA) in the deal. Both of whom are still on the Cancuks roster and leading their division. Stevens enters Free Agency this off-season. 
    • Kyle Crain (C) - Season 48's #5 overall pick and 2nd catcher off the board. Has one more season before entering Arbitration in Season 54. Along with Moss, you'll see Crain likely on the AL MVP ballot this season and rightly so, he looks to break the franchise record for HRs set during the Cobbfather steroid era - Season 2. He is currently at 53 and only needs 4 more to tie. 
    • Jonnie Daniels (LF) - Yet another Rule 4 pick, this one in Season 47 as the #3 pick. 
    • Akinori Yoshii (DH vR) - An underrated trade in Season 47 that saw him give up Nelson Sims (SuA) and Danry Zapata (2B) to the Austin Son's of Odin. Sims has jumped around after being released by a few teams and currently plays for Anahiem. Zapata on the other hand was just called up to the Majors during his age 28 season. Definitely a winning deal for the Expos. 
    • Chuck Herndon (DH vL) - A Season 46 trade with merritr back when his franchise played in Jackson. Headed to Jackson was Alex Perez and money to cover half his salary that season. Perez has proven to have plenty of power and might be facing off with the Expos during the playoffs as merritr looks to win his division. Tagging along with Herndon was Pedro Fernandez (LRB) who currently plays for Anaheim and Rich Peterson (RP) who is retired this past offseason. 
    • Nomar Rodgers (1B) - A late find in the Season 46 draft at pick #22 his junior year in college. Rodgers brings the power with Crain, the two will combine for over 100 HRs this season. 
    • Adam West (SS vR, 3B vL) - Acquired this season in a deal with NL South defending champs, minihouston in exchange for pitching prospect Danys Solis. I can tell you this one was a tough trade to make for both parties, but the NOOFs acquired another young 3B and needed the pitching depth while the Expos had plenty of pitching depth and like the young control at SS/3B. West was coming off a near .300 average season with 20 HR in 400 ABs. 
    • Christian Seung (SS vL) - A Rule 5 pick by the Expos in Season 48 at pick #4. Seung is a bit of an exception as he's one of VERY few players with 90+ ratings across the board defensively. 
    • Al Little (3B vR, RF vL) - In a roster dump with the OKC Barons, the Expos picked him up in a Season 50 trade along with $5M, costing the Expos only $3.2M that season. He had another $8.2M each of the last two seasons but is a free agent this coming off-season. Juan Gonzalez, the Barons return, is only at AA this season at the age of 21. 
    • Davy Oliver (RF) - Another trade, this one with the Portland Messiah's last season, S51. In standard fashion, Portland also covered half of his contract that season. Oliver still has 1 more year left at $6.6M left on his contract. 
  • The Bad (bench)
    • Ed Watanabe (3B) - Acquired this season from the Montreal Fighting Poutine Plates, costing 23 yr old diamond in the rough Larry Niemann (SP) who is currently at AAA. 
    • Chan Ho Jiang (3B) - Acquired this season from the Tacoma Aroma along with 1/3 of his contact. Heading back to Tacoma were Orlando Tomas (CF), Francis Kent (SP), and Reggie Robbins (RF). 
    • Jose Ordonez (2B) - The final position player on the list was also acquired via trade. This one during Season 50 from the Scranton Hammers who sold their franchise the following season. Heading back to the now Tacoma team were Chance Beckham (SP1) and Paulie Blackmon (AA SP). Ordonez is along for the ride, though the kid has some decent speed. 
  • The Ugly (injuries)
    • None
  • The Mound
    • J.C. Wall (SP1) - The Expos traded for Wall in Season 48, who was with the Helena Hot Dogs. After settling in, he's won the last 3 AL Cy Young awards and is currently leading the charge for his 4th straight. Next year he starts the first of a 5/$41.5M extension he signed this season. Sidenote - he should fire his agent after that contract. The Expos gave up Kenny Jacquez (3B), Andy McLaughlin (2B), Joshua Reames (SP), and $2M. The Expos also received Yovani Bonillla (SS) who will come into play in a trade for Ethier below. 
    • William Thompson (SP2) - Signed a 5/$76.9M at the start of S50, and has another 2/$34M left on the backloaded deal. This season isn't finished, but so far Thompson has been 58-21 with the team, logging 660 innings with a 2.69 ERA....so Ace #2. 
    • Damaso Ethier (SP3) - The Expos received Ethier in S48 but had to give up Yovani Bonilla (SS) who they had just traded for, Rougned Pulido (SP), and Julian Clay (RP).
    • Zephyr Gross (SP4) - Season 45 #4 overall draft pick. Gross, drafted as a College Senior, might just be the longest tenured Expo at the current moment. 
    • Cesar Tavarez (LRA) - IFA signing in Season 49 for a $100K signing bonus. 
    • Ossie Crow (SuA) - Crow was included as a 2nd piece in the S47 deal that brought Alex Perez (who was later flipped in the Chuck Herndon deal); to acquire those pieces it cost Atlanta Endy Wilste (3B) and David Grichuk (RP).
    • Fautino Salas (SuA) - IFA signing in Season 48 for a $12.7M signing bonus. 
    • Hiram Helms (SuB) - Helms is technically a S52 free agent signing, however Atlanta traded for him Season 50 and let him walk at the end of the season, choosing to sign him to a 2/$3M with an option. The option was declined but then signed him to a 2/$1.7M this past offseason. 
    • Miguel Rivera (SuB) - IFA signing in Season 49 for a $9M signing bonus.
    • Ron Steenstra (SuB) - Atlanta signed this former NL Fireman of the Year after a down year in New Orleans to a 1/$1.6M to see if he'd be able to turn it around. 
    • Steve Etherton (ClA) - Season 46 #23 overall draft pick has turned in two straight AL Fireman of the Year awards. He's on the list for a third but currently not the favored choice. 
  • The Up and Coming
    • Quilvio Infante (SP) - This future front end rotation piece was an IFA signing Season 48 to the tune of a $19M signing bonus. Pretty cheap considering more recent prices. 
    • Miguel Pena (SP) - Signed with the defending champ Expos just this season for $20.5M.  
    • Vince Saarloos (SS) - Arrived this season in a trade with Vancouver, giving up Rando Powell. Atlanta also received Hector Mota in the deal. 
    • Jackson Benson (C) - Was the main piece in the S50 deal with Chicago Gunslingers, giving up Albert Robbins, who has received retired after last season; only playing a partial season in Chicago. Also received Brett Crawford but he was later traded to Buffalo. 
    • Stephen Ramirez (RP) - Another deal with the Commish's team; giving up Clyde Spivey for Ramirez and Francisley Gomez this season. 

If you are active on the trade market, you've likely received at least a dozen trade offers from the Expos. Running total - for this purpose we will note how the player was first acquired by the team. List does not list current prospects, with this owner there is a high likely hood they never see the ML; at last not for the Expos before being traded. 
  • 3 players acquired via Free Agency
  • 6 players acquired via Rule 4 Draft
  • 1 players acquired via Rule 5 Draft
  • 3 players acquired via International Free Agency
  • 12 players acquired via Trade. 
  • 0 players claimed of Waivers

One more thing I've learned. Pitching is just different in Atlanta. Don't get me wrong, some of the pitching is very strong but somehow Atlanta seems to find a way to make even the most average pitcher have a sub 3.00 ERA.