S53 World Series Predictions

Richard Castle - contributing reporter

Buffalo finds their aging stars quickly approaching the tail end of their careers, having won their division 10 of the last 15 seasons. But don't let that quote fool you, Tarraga and Lopez are the only two players on this roster over the age of 31. While Atlanta has just hit their stride, appearing in 3 of the last 5 World Series. 

Editor note: Considering all the lineup changes it's hard to do a straight position battle comparison, so I kept mostly to RHP + DH lineups for positions. 

DH: Chuck Herndon (Atl) over Willie Golub (Buf) - very similar OBPs and neither with very much speed, the power of Herndon earns him the edge. 

C: Kyle Crain (Atl) over Braulio Guardado (Buf) - What a year the 4 year vet had for Buffalo but was it a career year for the young catcher? And you just can't argue with the 25 yr old (younger) Crain's 50+ HR and .300+ AVG output on a yearly basis; Crain is doing what Tarraga was doing a few years ago. 

1B: Alex Tarraga (Buf) over Nomar Rodgers (Atl) - Tarraga had a down year, and is clearly better than the numbers he put this season; but he is on the decline and the Expos 3 aces are all righties. If S52 Rodgers, who 45 HR on a .281 average shows up rather than the S51 & 53 who hit 26 HR on a .273 average; it could become a slight edge to Buffalo.

2B: Matty Moss (Atl) over Conor Christiansen (Buf) - The constant AL MVP threat is one of the best 2B in the game today, his Moss' .290 with 20+ HR, 35+ 2Bs, 70-90 SBs definitely tops the low OBP, limited power, and limited speed of Christiansen by more than a mile (1.6 km).

3B: Bernie Mendez (Buf) slight edge over Vince Saarloos (Atl) - Mendez is an above average hitter with near 20 HR power and 10-15 SB speed. But fans are excited to see what rookie Saarloos can do in the future. This season he came in at 10 HR, 15 SB, on a .250 average. 

SS: JO Avila (Buf) slight edge over Adam 'Batman' West (Atl). One has more speed/power combo, the others is better about getting on base. Defensively Avila is well above West at Short and that's where he earns the edge over West.  

LF: TJ Christenson (Atl) over Rich HIller (Buf) - Christenson the 30/35 threat was once again on the ballot for the AL MVP. Where Hiller had a down year but is still just a .260 hitter with limited power and speed. 

CF: Francis Jefferson (Buf) slight edge over Ed Watanabe / Davy Oliver (Atl) platoon - S52 Rooke of the Year takes it, even if he took a big step backwards from his rookie season He still managed a 20/25 season on a .270 average.  

RF: Johnnie Daniels (Atl)  over Alexander Vaughn (Buf) - Even after missing time this season Daniels still hit 32 HRs, while Vaughn was able to reach base more often he didn't offer a ton in HRs or SBs. 

The position count is Atlanta's 5 over Buffalo's 4, but given how many of those four are slight edges it could favor the Expos quickly. Now let's take a quick look at the pitching. Outside of Guardado and Tarraga, I wouldn't expect many homers from this Bisons squad and nor are they a running team; but they will do their best to get on base and move the runners around. Which could prove difficult against the best pitching staff in Cobbfather. 

SP: JC Wall, William Thompson, Damaso Ethier (Atl) over Gregor Lopez, Del Viciedo, Eli Moreno (Buf) - Every day of the week, Atlanta has the favored pitching. Lopez aged quite a bit this season and might be his final season unless some team is willing to sign him to a one year deal, though I'd hate to see his career marks take that hit; though he did still win 17 games this year. Atlanta also has Quilvio Infante and Zephyr Gross if needed while Buffalo has Pascaul Mijares. 

RP: Fautino Salas, Ossie Crow, Steve Etherton (Atl) slight edge over Miguel Castillo, Sammy Sivilla, Russell Heath, and Nestor Alou (Atl) - While Atlanta's rotation is better than their bullpen, they are no slouch either. Especially once they hit their stride the second half of the season. Most of the playoffs New Orleans has looked forward to a bullpen game if needed, but they've not had to face this quality of bullpen yet. 

Closer: Rookie Stephen Ramirez (Atl) over Jayson Roof (Buf) - The rookie really put on a show this season once he took over the closer role.  He seems more of a lock than Roof to close out some of the most important games of his career, but will the Rookie be up for it? 

Manager: ekoontz41 slight edge over bjc30 - .523 vs .522 career winning percentage, ekoontz41 has a post reason record of 321-244 in 103 total seasons. 50% of those his team has made the playoffs, 39 being Division Titles, and 13 World Series titles. bjc30 has seen his fair share of playoffs, but is only 455-491 in 291 seasons. I'd be curious to know their head to head over the years as both have been long time Cobbfather members. 

EDGE: Atlanta over Buffalo in 5. Wouldn't be the first time Buffalo is an underdog this season. Let's go!!!

The History of the Chase

 Jack Torrance - contributing reporter

Down 3-1 in the NLCS, Buffalo's experience and vets pull out the comeback and upset of New Orleans by taking the final three games and claiming their 6th NL pennant. Atlanta easily claims their franchise leading 14th AL pennant. In what could be Gregor Lopez's final year, it appears he gets at least one more shot at at title. 

S53: NL Buffalo v AL Atlanta, TBD
S52: NL Chicago v AL Philadelphia, 0-4
S51: NL Buffalo v AL Atlanta, 3-4
S50: NL Tucson (Tokyo) v AL Monterrey, 0-4
S49: NL Buffalo v AL Atlanta, 4-0
S48: NL Montreal v AL Colorado Springs, 0-4
S47: NL Oklahoma City v AL Colorado Springs, 4-3
S46: NL Oklahoma City v AL Helena, 0-4
S45: NL Oklahoma City v AL Colorado Springs, 4-3
S44: NL Honolulu (Tokyo) v AL Tampa Bay (Mexico City), 3-4
S43: NL Oklahoma City v AL Tampa Bay (Mexico City), 3-4
S42: NL Oklahoma City v AL New York, 4-2
S41: NL Memphis (New Orleans) v AL Tampa Bay (Mexico City), 3-4
S40: NL Oklahoma City v AL New York, 4-3
S39: NL Buffalo v AL Milwaukee, 4-0
S38: NL Portland (Tacoma) v AL Boston, 3-4
S37: NL Oklahoma City v AL Jackson (Monterrey), 3-4
S36: NL Florida (Washington DC) v AL Little Rock (Mexico City), 0-4
S35: NL Montgomery (New Orleans) v AL Houston, 4-3
S34: NL Florida (Washington DC) v AL Salem (Colorado), 1-4
S33: NL Florida (Washington DC) v AL Houston, 2-4
S32: NL Montgomery (New Orleans) v AL Cheyenne (Anaheim), 4-3
S31: NL Montgomery (New Orleans) v AL Texas (Houston), 4-1
S30: NL Monterrey (Santa Fe) v AL Atlanta, 4-3
S29: NL Florida (Washington DC) v AL Atlanta, 2-4
S28: NL Seattle (Tacoma) v AL Texas (Houston), 3-4
S27: NL Florida (Washington DC) v AL Atlanta, 2-4
S26: NL Florida (Washington DC) v AL Atlanta, 1-4
S25: NL Salt Lake City (Vancouver) v AL Texas (Houston), 4-1
S24: NL Buffalo v AL Pawtucket (Milwaukee), 4-2
S23: NL Dover (Pittsburgh) v AL Charlotte (Huntington), 4-0
S22: NL Dover (Pittsburgh) v AL Atlanta, 4-2
S21: NL Dover (Pittsburgh) v AL Colorado Springs, 4-2
S20: NL Dover (Pittsburgh) v AL Colorado Springs, 2-4
S19: NL Dover (Pittsburgh) v AL Vancouver (Anaheim), 2-4
S18: NL El Paso (Austin) v AL Vancouver (Anaheim), 3-4.
S17: NL Buffalo v AL Tampa Bay (Monterrey), 0-4.
S16: NL El Paso (Austin) v AL Durham (Augusta), 4-0.
S15: NL Los Angeles (Portland) v AL Vancouver (Anaheim), 1-4.
S14: NL Cincinnati (Washington DC) v AL Durham (Augusta), 4-2.
S13: NL Los Angeles (Portland) v AL Kansas City (Helena), 4-1.
S12: NL Rochester (Chicago) v AL Atlanta, 4-2.
S11: NL Rochester (Chicago) v AL Atlanta, 4-1.
S10: NL Rochester (Chicago) v AL Atlanta, 1-4.
S9: NL Rochester (Chicago) v AL Houston, 4-1. 
S8: NL Honolulu (Vancouver) v AL Houston, 3-4.
S7: NL Dover (Pittsburgh) v AL Houston, 4-1.
S6: NL Cincinnati (Washington DC) v AL New York (Milwaukee), 4-2.
S5: NL Sacramento (Oklahoma City) v AL New York (Milwaukee), 0-4.
S4: NL Dover (Pittsburgh) v AL Florida (Houston), 2-4.
S3: NL Sacramento (Oklahoma City) v AL Chicago (Atlanta), 3-4.
S2: NL Pawtucket (Pittsburgh) v AL Huntington (Atlanta), 4-0.
S1: NL Memphis (Santa Fe) v AL Trenton (Atlanta ); 4-0.

Let's take a look at which franchise has the most pennants. As of S52
14 - Atlanta
13 - 
12 - 
11 - 
10 - 
9 - Houston, Oklahoma City
8 - Pittsburgh, Washington DC
7 - 
6 - Buffalo
5 - Chicago, Colorado Springs
4 - Anaheim, Milwaukee, Mexico City, New Orleans
3 - Monterrey
2 - Augusta, Austin, Helena, New York (AL), Portland, Sante Fe, Tacoma, Tokyo, Vancouver
1 - Boston, Colorado, Huntington, Montreal, Philadelphia
0 - Columbus, Dover, Hartford, Minnesota, San Juan

And the S53 award goes to...

Jack Torrance - Contributing Reporter

And the Award goes to...

Continuing off last year's award season. You can generally find the runs, HRs, RBIs, and AVG listed on the website when voting but we'll cover a few of the player's advanced stats; including their Cash points (fantasy points - offense focused), SB success rate (when relevant, attempted 15 or more), extra base hits, a player's wOBA (weighted on-base average), rc27 (runs created per 27 outs), and even a player's wRAA (weighed runs above average). All in the effort to see how each individual effected the games they played. Players in bold is our predicted winner.

MVP

We'll start off with the MVP race. (listed in order from website)

• AL - It's a tough battle with 5 MVP choices once again coming from 3 different teams. Atlanta still has both Crain & Moss, but adds in S53 trade addition of T.J. Christenson. Colorado's Josmil Velazquez is added into the mix and once again we find Philly's Al Cervantes on the list. I don't think defense carries as much weight as it should in the voter's hearts, but if they do you to just remember that Moss and Cervantes played 2B, and Crain caught 82 games behind the plate this season. We'll get a chance to see all 5 men in the playoffs this season. In the end, the writer is going with Crain as he didn't have the thin air helping his numbers compared to Velazquez, but still a GREAT showing by him. Cervantes is a close 3rd with Moss and Christenson a distant 4th and 5th. 
• Kyle Crain (C/DH)- Predicted Winner
• Cash points - 655
• xBH - 83
• wRAA - 67.2
• wOBA - .451
• RC27 - 9.07
• SB% - irrelevant 
• Josmil Velazquez (1B)
• Cash points - 691
• xBH - 81
• wRAA - 66.8
• wOBA - .438
• RC27 - 8.85
• SB% - irrelevant 
• Al Cervantes (2B)
• Cash points - 620
• xBH - 92
• wRAA - 55.2
• wOBA - .417
• RC27 - 8.55
• SB% - 55% success
• Matty Moss (2B)
• Cash points - 542
• xBH - 63
• wRAA - 29.8
• wOBA - .382
• RC27 - 8.03
• SB% -  94.7% success 
• TJ Christenson (LF)
• Cash points - 509
• xBH - 63
• wRAA - 23.9
• wOBA - .373
• RC27 - 6.7
• SB% - 77.3% success  
• NL - Seems a changing of the guard in the NL with only Keith Halter a name we are used to seeing here. But still a mixed bag with a bunch of infielders, two 1Bs, a 2Bs, a 3B, and the lone outfielder. And once again a much closer race than the AL, as a case could be made for each of the men on this list. But no Tarraga makes me worried for the future of Cobbfather. 
• Keith Halter (1B)
• Cash points - 624.5
• xBH - 87
• wRAA - 37.7
• wOBA - .391
• RC27 - 6.9
• SB% - 76.9% (30 of 39)
• Warren Cobb (LF)- Predicted Winner
• Cash points - 589.5
• xBH - 78
• wRAA - 48.4
• wOBA - .411
• RC27 - 8.28
• SB% - 81.4% (48 of 59)
• Juancito Martin (2B)
• Cash points - 536
• xBH - 63
• wRAA - 39.3
• wOBA - .397
• RC27 - 7.8
• SB% - 66.7% (20 of 30)
  
• Flirted with .350 for 95% of the season until a late cold streak knocked him back.
• Rip Bromberg (3B)
• Cash points - 516.5
• xBH - 48
• wRAA - 28.9
• wOBA - .377
• RC27 - 6.68
• SB% - 68.8% (22 of 32)
• Tomas Urias (1B)
• Cash points - 484
• xBH - 71
• wRAA - 49.2
• wOBA - .418
• RC27 - 8.04
• SB% - 55.2% (16 of 29)

Cy Young

Next we have the Cy Young award. This time we'll be looking at a few advanced stats such as ERA+, FIP, Weighted Cash points to neutralize park factors. In the future, if we can figure out why our WAR numbers are so off, we'll include those as well. But for now we'll include K/BB and Quality Starts or Inherited Runners Scored as well. A reminder on ERA+, the average is 100 and anything above 100 indicates the pitcher performed better than average while below performed worse than average. Score of 150 would be 50% better than average. The FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: K, BB, HBP, and HR. 

• AL - Two of Atlanta's rotation pieces make the list again, but this time it's not JC Wall. Reigning AL Cy Young winner William Thompson leads the charge. This time with teammate Damaso Ethier, both of whom won 20+ games this season. The Big Apple sees Louis Conley back on the list, been awhile since we've seen that name. Monterrey has Yovani Parraz and Philly follows up with Nick Shackelford. Shackelford shouldn't be underestimated just because he doesn't have the Ws. 
• William Thompson - Predicted Winner
• ERA+ - 167
• FIP - 3.26
• Cash - 488
• K/BB - 2.78
• QS - 26
• Damaso Ethier
• ERA+ - 141
• FIP - 3.03
• Cash - 460
• K/BB - 3.43
• QS - 22
• Louis Conley
• ERA+ - 145
• FIP - 3.25
• Cash - 485
• K/BB - 3.2
• QS - 21
• Yovani Parraz
• ERA+ - 130
• FIP - 4.36
• Cash - 396
• K/BB - 1.96
• QS - 23
• Nick Shackelford
• ERA+ - 187
• FIP - 3.34
• Cash - 336
• K/BB - 3.03
• QS - 19
• NL - What a difference a year makes. All four starters (of New Orleans') who were on this last year failed to repeat, though Swann was close. Nigel White proves a smart addition and worth the $30M Hartford is paying him this year by being one of the two 20 game winners in the NL. New Orleans' bullpen not to be out done as Ronnie Andrews on the Cy Young list this year and makes a strong case. Chicago's Alton Drew just misses 20 games but provides he deserves to be on the list. Next up with have two starters from Buffalo. Sidenote - Hartford v Buffalo in the NLDS is going to be one of the best pitcher duals we've seen in Cobbfather history, but Hartford shouldn't forget about Pittsburgh yet. By the numbers I want to go Drew but White looks SO great on the surface. I love Andrews' season especially how his starters fell a part compared to last year, but only three relievers have won a Cy Young and none since S15; I don't think voters take too kindly to Closers for the Cy no matter how well they pitched. 
• Nigel White - Predicted Winner
• ERA+ - 225
• FIP - 2.44
• Cash - 477
• K/BB - 4.36
• QS - 21
• Ronnie Andrews
• ERA+ - 249
• FIP - 2.00
• Cash - RPs just don't compare well with SPs in the Cash system.
• K/BB - 3
  
• Saved 46 of 48 chances. 
• Inherited Runners Scored - 0 of 5.
• He typically started off the 9th so nobody on.
• Alton Drew
• ERA+ - 183
• FIP - 2.79
• Cash - 531
• K/BB - 3.23
• QS - 27
• Del Vicideo
• ERA+ - 132
• FIP - 3.79
• Cash - 461
• K/BB - 2.68
• QS - 25
• Gregor Lopez
• ERA+ - 138
• FIP - 4.22
• Cash - 377
• K/BB - 3.14
• QS - 18

Rookie of the Year

And you can't forget our about Rookies. This one gets a little trickier as the list often mixes pitchers with hitters. But we'll do the best we can. 

• AL - Complete flip of last season where we now find ourselves looking at Four Pitchers and a Catcher. This better not get X rated. Atlanta once again proves how deep their rebuild was and adds Starter  Quilvivio Infante and closer Stephen Ramirez to the list. They are followed by Houston's ace Mitch Dillard. Next we have the Monterrey catcher, David Andrus. And finally Roger Simon of Huntington who we expect to see in quite a few Cy Young lists in the year's to come but sadly he'll be the only one on the list watching the playoffs from the comfort of his own couch. I think it's a close one between Ramirez's ability to save the pen for Atlanta and Simon's 20 QSs in 33 Starts. 
• Stephen Ramirez (RP) - Predicted Winner
• ERA+ - 452
• Nearly unheard of being this high. Was he using a substance the entire season?
• FIP - 3.49
• Cash points - 244
• K/BB - 1.94
• Saved 31 of 32 chances. 
• Inherited Runners Scored - 4 of 16.
• Quilivio Infante (SP)
• ERA+ - 108
• FIP - 3.81
• Cash - 333
• K/BB - 2.36
• QS - 14
• Mitch Dillard (SP) 
• ERA+ - 131
• FIP - 3.30
• Cash - 323
• K/BB - 3.39
• QS - 10
• David Andrus (C)
• Cash points - 414
• xBH - 54
• wRAA - 40.2
• wOBA - .420
• RC27 - 8.65
• SB% - irrelevant 
• Had he been called up sooner, we might be talking about him on the AL MVP list this season as well. 
• Roger Simon (SP)
• ERA+ - 136
• FIP - 3.64
• Cash - 419
• K/BB - 3.2
• QS - 20
• NL - Lots of up and coming pitching this year, similar to the AL; the NL had three pitchers on the Rookie list lead by New Orleans' Danys Solis. The guy the NOOFs traded to Hartford, Gabriel Quixote, and Portland's Mike Young. Added to the list of two 1Bs; San Juan's Sticky Baez and OKC's Emilio Molina who was in the top for NL MVP for awhile before a late cold streak hit. 
  
• Danys Solis (P) - Predicted Winner
• Split time in the rotation and the bullpen
• ERA+ - 142
• The list is short of those who scored above 140, including many All-Stars.
• FIP - 3.95
• Cash - 265
• K/BB - 2.34
• QS - 9 (of 18)
• Inherited Runners Scored - 3 of 11.
• Gabriel Quixote (SP)
• ERA+ - 115
• FIP - 4.25
• Cash - 321
• K/BB - 2.39
• QS - 15 (of 32)
• Mike Young (RP)
• ERA+ - 110
• FIP - 3.33
• Cash points - 219
• Saved 36 of 43 chances. 
• Inherited Runners Scored - 6 of 12.
• Sticky Baez (1B)
• Cash points - 456
• xBH - 55
• wRAA - 32.4
• wOBA - .392
• RC27 - 7.21
• SB% - irrelevant 
• Voters love power, and Sticky's 28 HR, 102 RBI, on a .311 average will be tough to not vote for. 
• Emilio Molina (1B)
• Cash points - 421
• xBH - 57
• wRAA - 13.2
• wOBA - .353
• RC27 - 6.1
• SB% - 85% success (45 of 53)

Cash Points

The top 20 hitters players under the Cash system are:

1. 691 - Josmil Velazquez (Colo - 1B) 
2. 655 - Kyle Crain (Atl - C)
3. 625 - Keith Halter (Colu - 1B)
4. 621 - Al Cervantes (Phi - 2B)
5. 617 - Omar Gonzalez (Toy - 1B)
6. 590 - Warren Cobb (Hart - LF)
7. 588 - Olmedo Nunez (WDC - 1B)
8. 584 - Carlos Soto (Hou - 2B)
9. 566 - Douglas Laxton (NO - RF)
10. 559 - Yangervis Rosa (Toy - C)
11. 551 - Harry Padilla (NY - 2B)
12. 542 - Matty Moss (Atl - 2B)
13. 539 - Jose Pena (Ana - DH)
14. 538 - Grayson Lowry (Hunt - 3B)
15. 538 - Alex Perez (Mont - DH)
16. 536 - Juancito Martin (NO - 2B)
17. 535 - Andy McLaughlin (Dov - CF)
18. 532 - Alex Tarraga (Buf - 1B)
19. 523 - Tom Hines (Hart - 1B)
20. 520 - Shea Crowe (Chi - 2B)

And the bottom 10 hitters with at least 300 ABs are. As always it's filled with SS, let's hope they provide the defense to make up for these poor numbers at the plate. 

1. -31 - Garabez Belliard (Hart - SS)
1. -71.5 wRAA
2. 65 - Matty Doubront (Mil - SS)
1. -52.4  wRAA
3. 67 - Albert Leon (Toy - SS)
1. -20  wRAA
4. 84 - Yuniesky Lima (Ana - SS)
1. -31.3  wRAA
5. 85 - Jimmie Sosa (Toy - SS)
1. -18.7  wRAA

The top 20 pitchers under the cash system are:

1. 531 - Alton Drew (Chi)
2. 488 - William Thompson (Atl)
3. 485 - Louis Conley (NY)
4. 477 - Nigel White (Hart)
5. 470 - Rico Bonilla (NO)
6. 468 - Alan Street (Colu)
7. 462 - Zephyr Gross (Atl)
8. 461 - Del Vicideo (Buf)
9. 460 - Damaso Ethier (Atl)
10. 448 - Jiovanni Poole (NY)
11. 438 - Brian Fukudome (Chi)
12. 438 - Koyie Ward (Col Sp)
13. 435 - J.C. Wall (Atl)
14. 433 - Tom Brownson (Wash DC)
15. 422 - Doc Cortes (NO)
16. 419 - Roger Simon (Hunt)
17. 419 - Joaquin Owen (Phi)
18. 416 - Pedro Puello (OKC)
19. 409 - Jose Carrasco (Van)
20. 408 - Frank Kim (Min)

Coming to Cobbfather

 Gabrielle  O. Alvarez-Tillman - Contributing Reporter

Let's take a look at all these IFAs who are Coming to America Cobbfather. It was a monster class with A LOT of money spent, and the most this writer has ever seen so close to the end of the season. Here's how we rank them:

1. Louie Weiss (1B/DH) - Huntington $20.6M - He's a weak defensive 1B and not many great comps with the lack of superb talent in the league right now, but looking at ratings as of today; he's actually similar to teammate Wei-Yin Wan, except he came MUCH cheaper than WYN did. Weiss should hit for a .330+ AVG most every season with a few above .350, smash a bunch of HRs, and knock in a TON of runs. Well worth the money he was paid and Huntington better be thanking the Cobbfather gods for this gift so late in the season. This might create the best 3-5 hitters ever in Cobbfather. I'm not sure what all he has in the farm, but Weiss (1B), Wan (LF?), this year's #28 pick Julio Valdes (DH), and S53 50+ HR Lowry (3B) gives them a lot of power or trade bait. Once they are all in the majors, with Simon leading the rotation; if they don't win more than 4 titles I'll consider it a failure on ownership. 

2. Alcides Johnson (SP) - Atlanta $31M - How does this club do it? They continue to dominate, yet still find ways to spend extra on IFAs. Pitching is always needed and everyone thought this was going to be the last big IFA signing of the season until the pot of gold was found at the end of the S53 rainbow. Johnson's comp is Atlanta's own future ace, Damaso Ethier. Very solid, future rookie of the year and candidate for the AL Cy Young. 

3. Garabez Castillo (SP) - Vancouver $10.1M - Poor sap is one of the better IFAs, got less money than others and has to play in Canada. You know he regrets leaving the Dominican. But enough about his poor choices. It will be hard to beat this guy's best pitch, which is a 4-seam fastball. It will also be tough to beat his ability to strike out players and keep the ball on the ground. The top three could easily be switched up in any order depending on what your scouting department prefers. Not many good comps, not enough that I felt comfortable sharing one. Ah what the heck, that's use Mac Inouoe as his floor. His weak point will be his ability to face righties, but with his pitch quality, already spoke about his first pitch but his second, a slider will be top of the league as well. 

4. Jhonatan Castro (SS/3B) - Houston $32M - The one who signed for the most for a Houston team ready to make a run with recent promotions of a lot of their young talent. Though Castro likely shifts off Short due to a slight below average range and an even further below glove. But that power shifts well over to third base. Think of a slightly lighter hitting Roger Hermann; great comp should next 35+ HR a season most of his career, with a chance to knock in a bunch of runs. But he has a chance to be a slighter better hitter than JB Bradford, let's hope he develops through the Houston system. With that speed, I see him being a little more Hermann than Bradford. 

5. Louie DeLeon (SS) - Mexico City $23.4M - You don't pay this much money for a Gold Glove SS, but you do for one whose contact and ability to hit righties is so high. Especially one so healthy and durable as this one. The down side he'll rarely hit more than single digit home runs in a single season and doesn't offer much in terms of stolen bases. Sydney Houston was the best comp I could find, and for what Houston does better against Lefties, DeLeon will do that much better versus Righties. 

6. Max Escuela (RF) - Helena $30.8M - Another one with some tough comps, I'm not sure if that speaks to the talent or lack of talent in Cobbfather at the moment. His new owner will definitely keep an eye on how he develops facing lefties and if he doesn't learn much in the minors he could fall to a platoon type. I don't think that happens, after all look at Helena's own Marlon Fowler as a comp and he's hitting .275 against Lefties this year. But then again he's hitting .232 against Rights, that's like saying 1+1=5; something's not adding up. Escuela should have the leg up on Fowler with a better eye and handles righties much better. He'll top out at 20-25ish HRs and anyone's guess is as good as mine for stolen bases since every team manages the need for speed so differently. 

7. Willie Machado (2B) - Boston $20.3M - Machado is likely the bottom of the IFAs this year, but he's no slouch. Any other year he'd likely be top 3-4. His comp would be a slower version of Nefi Sierra. While Sierra is having a career year at age 26, he's been a solid .255-.260 hitter in years prior with 20ish HRs, obviously as was mentioned the slower version; he won't match Nefi's 40ish SBs. 

Draft Recap S53

Gabrielle  O. Alvarez-Tillman - Contributing Reporter.

Yet another draft season in Cobbfather, so let's round up the Rule 4 draft. A few appeared let down by the quality of the draft while others seem pleasantly surprised. Let's dig into it! We'll do the same as last season and add in current ML comps to most players - maybe not all. 

1. Anaheim - Leon Beck (CF) - Quickly shifted over to SS at Rookie league but given his limitations with his arm strength and more importantly the accuracy he'll shift back to CF before reaching the majors if not somewhere else on the diamond. A lot to like for Anaheim with their #1 overall pick, 80 grade contact and eye with great speed should help keep his OBP up. I'm seeing a lot of current Luis Espinosa vibes with more speed and MUCH better glove. 

2.  Helena  - Tim Combs (2B) - You could slab Momma Combs upside the face and little Timmy wouldn't loose his temper, talk about composed! But let's get to the diamond, he'll be a slightly below average 2B. Good contact, hits lefties much better than rights, a decent eye but limited power. It will all hinge on how he develops against Rights. But a comp of Andy Gulan, isn't bad at all. Gulan has been a .280-.310 hitter the last 5 seasons. Likely ends up hitting in the 2 or 5/6 hole in most lineups. 

3. Boston - Bubba Kennedy (SP) - Good thing this wasn't New Orleans selecting here, after being burned by a Kennedy, that last name is as bad as any four letter word in that franchise' clubhouse. Lucky for Boston, this one has the stamina to stay in the starting rotation, durability for a 5 man rotation, and pretty equal splits against both lefties and righties. Hey may not see a lot of strikeouts, but should see the majority of hits staying on the ground. The control leaves a lot to be desired but you might not find a better potential Slider in the game. That said, he'll lean heavy on sliders as his secondary pitches lack use at the ML level. Imagine Frank Kim with less control but a much better first pitch. 

4. Washington DC - Brook Page (SP) - With the 10 straight season in the top 10, DC goes with a starting pitcher. Like Kennedy, Page appears to have the stamina and durability to remain in the rotation who keeps the ball on the ground. Unlike Kennedy, Page will have 0 control issues over the course of his career. The biggest key factor in the success of Page over Kennedy is Page's inability against righties but he'll lean on his 4 Seam, Curveball and Slider; all of which show good if not great ML potential. We'll feeling a lot of Miguel Park here, though Page has potential for better control, more of a groundballer, and a better third pitch; but he won't strike out nearly as many as Park. If he strikes out 40 in a season let's call it a win!

5. Tacoma - Donnie Wilson (P) - Unsigned at the moment, and this writer thinks he will remain so. Did Tacoma math wrong and not leave enough to sign this pick after picking up 14 international free agents? I think Canada is starting to rub off on this club. Do they hate America? Staying away from home grown talent! Most IFAs were standard bonuses outside of two, which were $5M and $8.5M respectively. Maybe if they transferred some money they can sign Donnie 'Don't Call Me' Wilson. A Type D shifts the pick to #6 next year, but paired with what looks like the #1 overall pick, he could be in line for some big improvements next year. 

6. Oklahoma City - Rangel Sanders (SP) - Another starter goes off the board. Hard to argue with a guy named Rangel, I'm sure he will love pitching half his games in a home pitcher's park of OKC. Good health, average major league control, handles righties well but will struggle mightily against lefty lineups. Not much of a groundball pitcher but the park should help limit some of those that might fall for HRs. For a 6th overall pick he doesn't have the pitch quality one would prefer, though his 4-seam should be ML ready. He's a Boomer Pearson, which works since they both have cool names, even if Rangel will struggle a little more than Boom against Lefties. I'm sure Boomer wishes he were in OKC's park and not playing in Colorado where he's already given up 20 HRs this season in 26 games. 

7. Portland - Timothy Wright (LF) - What's with the kids that will let you slap their mommas? Even if Lil Timmy here carries a big bat. With a good combo of power and speed, he'll definitely find himself some playing time, especially against lefties. He's a solid all around player, but where he lacks in defense but should be your average lefty fielder. Surprisingly not a lot of great comps. We could say similar to our #1 pick Luis Espinosa but he's far less contact, slightly more power, and less of an eye; though he has Luis beat in speed. But let's mix it up and call this one Doug Cornelius with a slight bump in power and against lefties, less of an eye, and with a big boost in speed. Side note, Cornelius was the #3 overpick his year. 

8. Milwaukee - Fred Russell (SP) - 'Drop Dead' Fred Russell has the health, durability, and stamina to last in a 4 man rotation, but will his talent allow him to be? This guys talent is not allowing a lot of walks and striking out a lot of hitters, two very important things that a pitcher can control himself. He's neither a flyball nor a groundball pitcher and his first pitch curveball is near ML ready now. All that said, he should fair well enough against Righties but lefties will mash him hard. After looking at comps he seems to be your prototypical starting pitcher with lots of comps making it hard to narrow down. Rather than specifics, we'll just name a few: Gerald Kojima, Roy Berkman, Trent Law, Roger Helling, Ray Aaron. 

9. Montreal - Rick Wilkins (CF) - Not a great start for a Montreal team just starting their rebuild, as Ricky 'Don't Call Me Williams' Wilkins is the second player to go unsigned in this draft. Is everyone hedging their bets for a better draft next season? A quick look at the Waiver Wire shows Montreal at the #2 pick next season. It's all about next year, it's always next year. 

10. Huntington - Lonny Martin (C) - Currently unsigned but they also picked up another catcher with pick 28 who signed for slot. Perhaps Martin remains unsigned, but will it become a Type D pick next season? Huntington is making a play for the AL South while a Wildcard slot might be out of the question, having to catch up with New York and Dover. Doable, especially with the recent promotion of stud Japanese 1B Wei-Yin "Yang" Wan to the ML club post All-Star break. 

11. Houston - Ted Nelson (2B) - Considering the prospects in this system I can't imagine another season where we cover them with a top 15 pick; but then again there's only one way to build another dynasty. They currently sit just inside a protected pick at #14, how peculiar. But does this signify a type by Houston's owner? Just this season Houston selected Clayton Helton in the Rule 5 draft, both players make above average contact, less power than my grandma and practically only hit lefties with above average eyes and a combo of speed and base running ability to lead the league in steals if given the green light....and can get on base. Given his OAV, and the reigning Rookie of the Year Carlos Soto at 2B for the foreseeable future down in Space City, expect Nelson to be traded

12. Austin - Fausto Silverio (SP) - Tall slender build projected as a back of a 5 man rotation ML starter. He's pretty even across the board with no one skillset standing out above the rest. Has a lot of Tony Santiago vibes with the exception of a higher expectation to strike more batters out. Maybe that puts him in the Yamil Torres territory with slightly less pitch quality. Either way he should contribute to the ML team when the time comes. 

13. Pittsburgh - Endy Gardner (RP) - The first reliever off the board who is currently closing out games in Low A. Enough control issues that leave him as a head scratcher with the #13 overall pick. Doesn't handle lefties very well unless his stuff is working that day. Sorry Yinzer fans! We'll give you two comps for this one as well. OKC's SuA Gail Gilmore who has been great this season but not so much last. And Tacoma's SuA Andres Caminero. How well he develops that project above average pitch quality will determine how much ML time he'll see, but that Change-Up and Slider combo could be brutal to any hitter when he's hitting his spot. 

14. Dover - Bud Lowery (SP) - The kid from Oceanside with fantastic control, okay 4-seamer somewhat useful curveball and a useless forkball. A forkball, why Bud? You gotta be weiser than that! He should be very consistent against both lefties and righties. I'd look at Randal Foster for an early comp. He's struggled a bit in Mexico City but that 3.13 ERA last season over 224 IP in El Paso is the stuff of dreams this late in the draft. 

15. Tokyo - Justin Carson (P) - Carson is pretty similar to Bud Lowery but should fair better against Righties if he can get his stuff working. His lesser pitch quality could be his demise and he won't nearly last as long into games as Lowery has potential to. Portland's Mike Sappelt is Justin's comp. In true Cobbfather fashion Sappelt has gone from a 3.75 ERA on .241 OAV and 1.30 WHIP to a 5.03 ERA on .258 OAV and 1.32 WHIP this season. If both pitchers could find a way to limit some hits they could definitely get that ERA down. 

Recap: 9 pitchers, 2 second basemen, 2 center fielders, a left fielder, and a catcher. What do you think there is a shortage of in Cobbfather? 

As a bonus, let's take a look at Julio Valdes (C) who was drafted by Huntington at pick #28. This kid can rake! Expect a few HR Derby titles in his career and a good thing he's in the AL, because that range and glove will keep him out of the field outside of resting a starter. The two players he can look at are both on the Atlanta Expos, Kyle Crain and Johnnie Daniels; which is a HIGH ceiling for him. Surprised he slipped this late into the draft. The biggest different between Valdes and the two above, and its a pretty important piece to hitting....his contact. His splits are slightly lower than each as well, so don't expect the batting average to match of the two, but the raw power is still there. 

Let's go prospects, it's nearly your time to shine!!